Thread for obviously newsworthy stuff

[spambot]

Well, if the natives are living on land that happens to be endowed with shiny metals, what are you going to do?

[Proteus_MST]

A faithful Trumpster doing his work:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/24/18018256/explosive-device-bomb-clinton-obama-soros

Mail bombs were sent to the Obamas, Clintons and George Soros

I guess Donnie will publicly keep silence over it and secretly applaud the bomb builder (and regret that the bombs were detected before they could go off)

[Broken_Erika]

Family Values!

US white nationalist Richard Spencer's wife says he abused her

The wife of US white nationalist Richard Spencer has accused him of being "physically, verbally and emotionally abusive", US media report.

In papers filing for divorce, Nina Koupriianova said on one occasion in 2011 Mr Spencer dragged her down the stairs, resulting in bruises.

She said that in 2014 he again "attacked" her when she was four-months pregnant.

In comments to the Associated Press, Mr Spencer denied being an abusive person.

Richard Spencer is a figurehead for US far-right groups and popularised the term "alternative right".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45960094

[spambot]

is there some sort of correlation between being a nazi and having a small dick?

[Uncle Sparky]

♪♪ Hitler had only one small ball,
Goebbels, he had no balls at all.. ♪♪

[Proteus_MST]

is there some sort of correlation between being a nazi and having a small dick?

Perhaps ... there may also be a correlation between closeness to Nazis and having tiny hands

[Proteus_MST]

Apropos small dicks ... here is another example of one:

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/10/24/18014276/mens-rights-activist-eagle-rock-brewery-lawsuit

[rah]

There's also probably a correlation between that and being beaten by your wife.

[Ben Kenobi]

You can't mix and match. 538 has MO,NV as toss-ups, AZ, IN and FL as lean D and TN as lean R. They put ND in the likely R column and MT as likely D.

And this is why their analysis is wrong. AZ, IN, FL, MO, NV, MT are all true tossups. They also drop ND to Likely R, but Heitkamp is down by 10 and MT is within 3. ND at this point is Safe R. Texas is Likely R, not Lean, same with Tennessee.

That means you can do your estimates (using 538 poll aggregate) as 1/1 MO,NV and 2/3 IN,FL,AZ and 1/3 TN. That gives a central value of 3 D/3 R (which is R+1). They also say that 6 D/ 0 R (D +2) is about the same probability is 0 D/ 6 R (R + 4). That is also what we see from 538 analysis.

Subtle, systematic bias across the spectrum is going to greatly distort their results.

By the time you get to R + 5/R + 6 or D + 3/D+4 you are dealing with Likely D/Likely R (like ND, MT, NE, TX, MS, WV, NJ, MN). Those are equal numbers... you could imagine that the distribution is then symmetric. Which it is basically, but R has a longer and higher tail.

It's not symmetric. That's the problem. There's an R+2, +3 bias in favor of R's that is not being reflected in the 538 analysis. If you assume that it ought to be symmetric, it's going to bias your results. Also, they should be running sims, but sims are only as good as the numbers they are giving them.

[Jon Miller]

And this is why their analysis is wrong. AZ, IN, FL, MO, NV, MT are all true tossups. They also drop ND to Likely R, but Heitkamp is down by 10 and MT is within 3. ND at this point is Safe R. Texas is Likely R, not Lean, same with Tennessee.

Subtle, systematic bias across the spectrum is going to greatly distort their results.

It's not symmetric. That's the problem. There's an R+2, +3 bias in favor of R's that is not being reflected in the 538 analysis. If you assume that it ought to be symmetric, it's going to bias your results. Also, they should be running sims, but sims are only as good as the numbers they are giving them.

It is symmetric with a central value of 51/49 (R+0). You said that the 538 math was wrong, I showed that based on estimates that they weren't (the same sort of estimates you made). Now about how the polls are done... I am not part of that. Someone can claim to know more or less than 538. I claim to know less.

If you think that AZ, IN, FL, MO, NV, MT are true tossups (and ND is not lean R and IN is not lean D), then you are probably right that the center value is R+2. So instead of disparaging 538 math, why don't you say why you think that MT is a tossup? (And IN is not lean D)

JM

[ZEE]

I just did early voting, you guise...

REPUBLICAN DOWN THE BOARD LOL

You bleeder slime are not ready to hold The Tablets. I do not interfere in Daddy's business, and right now we are in the Age of Diamonds. I will support them until The Turning.

Even if it means my failure. That is why I am a good boy.

[Aeson]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ZIe6h8ifw

[ZEE]

Daddy is going to give me a good nut tonight.

[Uncle Sparky]

If you didn't mark the ballot with blood, they won't count it...

[Uncle Sparky]

Trump supporters failed to kill Obama and the Clintons.

[Aeson]

Incompetence saves lives!

[ZEE]

Well, in 2024 the Leftists can try to gain the Presidency again.

[Proteus_MST]

Well, in 2024 the Leftists can try to gain the Presidency again.

You mean, if there are still free elections in 2024 and Trump hasn't declared himself Emperor for Lifetime yet