Thread for obviously newsworthy stuff

[Jon Miller]

BTW, I know that the odds from 538 are wrong. They estimate that R+5 is the equivalent of D+4. If we assume that NV + MO + FL + IN + AZ + MT are all 'tossup', meaning 50/50, and we assume that TX, and TN are all likely, meaning 80/20 splits, and ND is 95/5.

The average result is going to be R winning TX, TN, ND, MV, MO, FL, that is half the tossups. R+5 is about half as likely, or about 25 percent or one in four, not 2 percent that 538 is claiming.

So that means one of two things, one that RCP is lying when it says that all six are true tossups (I don't think they are), or 538 can't do math. (much more likely). D+4 is something well below 1 percent at this rate.

You can't mix and match. 538 has MO,NV as toss-ups, AZ, IN and FL as lean D and TN as lean R. They put ND in the likely R column and MT as likely D.

That means you can do your estimates (using 538 poll aggregate) as 1/1 MO,NV and 2/3 IN,FL,AZ and 1/3 TN. That gives a central value of 3 D/3 R (which is R+1). They also say that 6 D/ 0 R (D +2) is about the same probability is 0 D/ 6 R (R + 4). That is also what we see from 538 analysis.

By the time you get to R + 5/R + 6 or D + 3/D+4 you are dealing with Likely D/Likely R (like ND, MT, NE, TX, MS, WV, NJ, MN). Those are equal numbers... you could imagine that the distribution is then symmetric. Which it is basically, but R has a longer and higher tail.

JM

[ZEE]

Jon Miller you are completely incorrect and on the verge of being insulting.

[Aeson]

I eagerly await BKs new website that will make predictions after the elections are finished

[Kidlicious]

Oh that reminds me of the post presidential election thread when you all predicted incorrectly how long Trump would remain president. Thanks.

[ZEE]

Yup.

[Aeson]

Oh that reminds me of the post presidential election thread when you all predicted incorrectly how long Trump would remain president. Thanks.

It should remind you of the thread that will be made after Trump isn't president which predicts how long Trump was president for.

[ZEE]

Nope.

[Kidlicious]

Pence says that the President of Honduras told him that Venezuela is financing the "caravan."

[spambot]

Clearly the Communists are planning to destroy a nation that was created by immigrants by sending more immigrants.

[Broken_Erika]

Pence says that the President of Honduras told him that Venezuela is financing the "caravan."

With what? Venezuela has no money!

Anyway
Run For Your Lives!
The socialists are coming! White House sounds alarm at rise of the left

As Democrats score on healthcare, the Council of Economic Advisers raises the spectre of Marx, Sanders and Swedish working mothers making you pay more for your pickup truck

You're all Doomed. Doomed i Say! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMED!

[Kidlicious]

Clearly the Communists are planning to destroy a nation that was created by immigrants by sending more immigrants.

The US was not created by immigrants. That's a false narrative.

[Proteus_MST]

The US was not created by immigrants. That's a false narrative.

So the indians created the US?
That would be new information

Must be very masochist indians, which afterwards left the white man to govern the country
and even wage war against their own tribes and drive them away from their home lands


Addendum:
After reading this article:
https://www.quora.com/Was-America-fo...on-immigration

I have to admit that you have a point.
The founding fathers were not immigrants but hostile invaders ... therefore the USA itself wasn't founded by immigration but by conquest, treachery and violence.
Immigration (in the 19th century) however was the key to making the USA great and turn it into the country it is today

[Kidlicious]

So the indians created the US?
That would be new information

Must be very masochist indians, which afterwards left the white man to govern the country
and even wage war against their own tribes and drive them away from their home lands


Addendum:
After reading this article:
https://www.quora.com/Was-America-fo...on-immigration

I have to admit that you have a point.
The founding fathers were not immigrants but hostile invaders ... therefore the USA itself wasn't founded by immigration but by conquest, treachery and violence.
Immigration (in the 19th century) however was the key to making the USA great and turn it into the country it is today

Native Americans did help build this nation. You believe in another false narrative.

[Proteus_MST]

Native Americans did help build this nation. You believe in another false narrative.

Well, lots tribes started with peaceful relations with the USA ...
and wee rewarded with later being massacred, or getting deported into impoverished reservations, because white settlers desired their lands ...
be it because of gold, or because of its fertility

No matter what, at this time they never were citizens of he USA, as the naturalization actsthat were passed in the years 1790-1802 explicitely limited the citizenship of the USA to white free people of good character.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natura...on_Act_of_1790

Even black people got their chances to become citizens of the USA earlier, than the native amerindians

[Proteus_MST]

On another note:
Anyone remembers Brian Kemp, the republican candidate for governeur in Georgia?

That is the one who is accused of voter suppresion because of being especially rigorous towards minorities when it comes to purging voter lists,
(ab)using his position as secretary of state to put 53k voter registrations, most of them from blakc people, on hold
and stopping a bus carrying black seniors from bringing them to the voting booths

Well, audio tapes have turned up where this Brian Kemp said on a recent (closed for press) campaign event,
that it "continues to concern us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote" ...
and in which he also said that he is concerned about the money, his democratic (black) opponent pumps into initiatives
that are supposed to bring voters to the booths or help them using their rights to vote by mail.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-rolling-stone

I am sure that Trump likes Kemp, "because of his character" ... and he seems to be the typical political candidate of the Trump era