Who Will Win the Election?

[Guynemer]

I am the Eggman. I am the Walrus.

Goo goo g'joob.

[Ramo]

I am every Zombie Reagan.

[Guynemer]

I am every cowbell-playing Will Ferrell.

[Ben Kenobi]

The process of speaking and listening. And common sense; clearly the founder of the Christian Coalition has some clout with evangelicals.

Some, but not as much as you seem to be attributing to him.

Are you every evangelical?

No, but I find it curious that you are suddenly well informed in the voting habits of evangelicals, and the perception of Pat Robertson among evangelicals.

I didn't know you cared!

[Ben Kenobi]

I guess you somehow miss all the reports how various republicans are trying to supress tens of thousands of democratic voters across the nation, focused in swing-states, primarily.

The voters that I suppose filled out flawed registration ballots?

When the dead rise to vote Democrat, I think they have reasons to be suspicious of such registrations.

I guess you don't read about how Jeb Bush told everyone to follow his highly flawed list of ex-cons in not letting them vote (it doesn't include much of the typically republican minorities, such as hispanics, and the people that made the list have denounced it as so flawed it should be thrown out).

Ah, I thought the evil Republicans oppressed the hispanic voters by arresting a disproportionate number.

Now, you say that these hispanics all vote for Bush? That's a questionable statement in the least.

There are some cases of democrats behaving badly, but none of them are trying to supress the vote, and none of them are doing anything that will affect tens of thousands of voters.

This suppression is in response to falsified ballots.

The Harris incidient I have already denounced, and is just an example of a single democrat doing something vile and foolish. No one was hurt however, and no one last their right to vote.

I am grateful for your statement, but sadly, many of your compatriots found the humour in such actions and apologised for the assailant.

And you have to live in some sort of bizarre world to not notice that though Republican registrations have increased, the Democratic registrations have increased on a much larger level (to say nothing of how they have always been higher to begin with).

I haven't denied that statement anywhere in the thread. I am just not certain what effect this is going to have on the election.

After all, I am a member of the Canadian conservative party, but I declined to vote along party lines in this last election.

What I do know, is that Bush has pushed for more voters, and that his turnout should be higher than last time. Whether there will be enough Democrats to balance this out, I do not know.

Are you counting on Republicans ripping up voter registration forms and trying to supress the vote as a counter to the increased registrations?

The dead vote, is not one to which I have any knowledge.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ramo
Turnout will be massive.

I agree. Have you seen the reports from Florida on CNN, where an earlier voter line winds out the building and down the street as far as the eye can see?? One guy near the front of the line said he'd been there 2 1/2 hours already.

Big turn outs have traditionally helped Democrats. Republic are very consistent about showing up to the polls. Dems are iffy.

Dems have out registered Republicans recently 60% to 40%.

On the other hand:
(1) No one is counting people in the military, who are believed to be 70/30 in favor of Bush.
(2) It is supposed to rain on election day in Ohio, Pennsylvania and in the panhandle and southern tip of Florida -- that'll drive down turnout and help Bush.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Now, you say that these hispanics all vote for Bush? That's a questionable statement in the least.

Across the country, Hispanics generally vote Democratic.

But in Florida, the Cuba exiles generally vote Republican due to the Republican Party's strong anti-Castro stance.

[The Mad Monk]

Originally posted by Drachasor
I guess you somehow miss all the reports how various republicans are trying to supress tens of thousands of democratic voters across the nation, focused in swing-states, primarily.

-Drachasor

...and I guess you missed the nation-wide ACORN drives where people were each filling out dozens of bogus registrations.

Republicans have a reason to watch, so voters like me don't have our votes canceled by a nonexistant voter.

That directly harms me as a voter, and it pisses me off.

[dojoboy]

Originally posted by Ramo
You mean, he's going to rig the election?

Hope not, I was teasing.

[dojoboy]

Originally posted by Ramo
RCP, in 2000, predicted that Bush would win by 10% and 400 electoral votes.

Perhaps they've improved their model since then.

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
...and I guess you missed the nation-wide ACORN drives where people were each filling out dozens of bogus registrations.

Republicans have a reason to watch, so voters like me don't have our votes canceled by a nonexistant voter.

That directly harms me as a voter, and it pisses me off.

10 forged ballots don't mean 10 more votes. In fact, especially if you look at the cases where this has happened, they nearly certainly don't mean that. "Mary Poppins" and "Jeffry Dohmer" (sp?) are certainly not going to be casting votes, but they were registered.

Additionally, the registrations being cast out are not at all related to the reports of some isolated cases of individuals following the profit motive. They are two seperate groups of people. If the Republicans were going after fake registrations, then you'd have a point. They are going after legitimate ones though.

Blackwell, in Ohio, has tried to get over 30,000 registrations removed because "they weren't on thick enough paper." These a black voters who will very, very likely vote largely Democratic. This sort of behavior isn't isolated:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7422-2004Oct28.html

And it is very easy to find more info on it.

To say this is the same as some people making fake registrations with ludicrious names that will never get used at the polls (if even allowed in), is ridiculous. The Acorn issue is because Acorn is paying people by the registration form, so some people fill out more forms to get more money. Simple profit motive. They are not drives to have non-existent people actually vote, and any such fraud resulting from that will likely be extremely small (that's not the motive, and there is no effort or evidence of effort to do that).

I am not saying all Republicans are in favor of this sort of vile behavior, but a number of Republicans in power clearly are. It is a base and vulgar tactic that should be denounced by all.

-Drachasor

[The Mad Monk]

Don't strawman me.

"Mary Poppins" was the NAACP fiasco. ACORN is much, much bigger. Even Chegitz knows about them.

[Boris Godunov]

Tucker Carlson, conservative pundit, has called the election in his WaPo column:

Popular Vote
Bush 48
Kerry 51.5

EV
Bush 260
Kerry 278

FL
Bush 49
Kerry 51

Bush is soooo toast.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I apologise, Boris.

You never accepted the bet offered.

I was certain of that, I just wanted to see how much time I could make you waste searching the OT archives.

And to show that, I accept the bet readily. I'll even up the ante for a whole month, given my sporadic nature of posting these days.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Don't strawman me.

"Mary Poppins" was the NAACP fiasco. ACORN is much, much bigger. Even Chegitz knows about them.

Acorn is an independent company and at tops we're talking 1,000-2,000 facked registration cards so the workers can make more money. Those guys get paid per registration so, yes, a few will try to pad their numbers but no one is voting on those registrations.

What we're seeing in Florida is the systematic selective enforcement of exisiting federal law. Preventing black cons from voting but not checking for hispanic cons who will vote Bush. That alone will likely mean something like 30,000 illegal votes for Bush. Attempting to block same day registration, most of whom are poor and minority, which has worked very well in nearly half of the country. Trying to disqualify registered voters for pro-democratic areas based upon the thickness of the paper the registration for is printed on.

The Republicans are orders of magnitude worse then the Democrates when it comes to dirty tricks plus they really do attempt to prevent people from voting which democrates simply don't do.