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it'd be cool if we could get the highest turnout ever for this election.
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Maybe voter turnout will go all the way up to 60%.A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.Comment
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5 points is a lot, but polls can move that much in a couple of days, no problem. Still way too close to call.
Zogby's tracking poll shows Kerry up by one (margin up by two from a couple days ago)."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Why the Kerry will win:
1. Polls show the race tied.
2. Bush has more ground to defend in the electoral college than Kerry.
3. The Dems have a massive ground operation. In 2000, it put Gore up a few points from the polls. And it's much better this time around.
4. Undecideds almost always break for the challenger. Final polls are ceilings for incumbents, floors for challengers. Since 4 years of knowing the incumbent hadn't convinced voters to go for them, another few days won't make a difference. Further, if you look at the internals of various polls, undecideds have absolutely dismal approval ratings for Bush."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I truly want Kerry to win, but since Bush is a war-time incumbent, that might work in Bush's favor.A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.Comment
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Colorado for Kerry!
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Bush is going to winComment
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Yes, Bush will win - and I so hope on election night that the mods will allow all the lefties here to voice their true feelings on the result. Over and over again.
I can't wait.
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Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I have a feeling the Dems will retake Congress because Bush ads have been saying "John Kerry and Liberals in Congress" alot. So Rove is obviously worrying about Congress.
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I too am fairly sure Bush will win, winning pretty much the exact same states as last time. I won't be too pleased, but I think I can learn to live with it eventually like I have the last four years.
At least it will keep Doonesbury decent.
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I actually think that Bush will take this one after all is said and done.In da butt.
"Do not worry if others do not understand you. Instead worry if you do not understand others." - Confucius
THE UNDEFEATED SUPERCITIZEN w:4 t:2 l:1 (DON'T ASK!)
"God is dead" - Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" - God.Comment
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Inflate your Upload Space
Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.
WaPo probably has a crappy LV model. They're tied among RV's in that poll."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Gallup has Kerry +1, and other polls have showed the race a dead heat or slight Kerry advantage. I would have to agree with Ramo's conclusion that something is off with WaPo's LV model.Originally posted by DanS
Really odd. WaPo has Bush up 6 points while Zogby has Kerry up 3. Not sure what to make of this pretty huge discrepancy. These are both supposed to be the accurate kind of polls (samples of 1,500 and 1,200, respectively), but the margins of error don't overlap.Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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Could happen. I saw a poll with a "would you rather vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress" question and the Dems were leading by a fair bit. Perhaps a lot of people who're pissed at Bush but don't like Kerry will take it out on Republicans in Congress.Originally posted by Odin
I have a feeling the Dems will retake Congress because Bush ads have been saying "John Kerry and Liberals in Congress" alot. So Rove is obviously worrying about Congress.
Of course there probably won't be much change in the Senate, since the Dems are defending more open seats but with the House who knows?Stop Quoting BenComment
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