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It's far more likely that the Dems will retake the Senate than the House, IMO. Due to how gerrymandered the system is, the change in the House will probably be minimal (and due to redistricting, and Dems have basically lost a few seats to start with). The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Not sure if I see it that way. What seats do you think are vulnerable? Are any Dem seats vulnerable?Originally posted by Ramo
The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though.
I still see a Republican sweep coming. The race for the White House is probably the closest."And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man." -- JFK Inaugural, 1961
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is not a vice." -- Barry Goldwater, 1964 GOP Nomination acceptance speech (not George W. Bush 40 years later...)
2004 Presidential Candidate
2008 Presidential Candidate (for what its worth)Comment
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I predict a Bush blowout.
remember to bump this thread next Tuesday night. I like to be right
. Even though I'm rooting for Kerry.
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Probably not gunna happen. It'll be a dem victory to just keep things the way they are in the Senate since the Dems are defending more open seats, although what with a couple of Republican candidates going completely loony (like the apparently senile one in Kentucky who demanded that he debade from RNC HQ in DC and then used a teleprompter) you never know...Originally posted by Ramo
It's far more likely that the Dems will retake the Senate than the House, IMO. Due to how gerrymandered the system is, the change in the House will probably be minimal (and due to redistricting, and Dems have basically lost a few seats to start with). The Senate has a pretty good chance of turning blue, though.Stop Quoting BenComment
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I see a Bush victory as well but I don't think anyone is seeing a blowout.Originally posted by Dissident
I predict a Bush blowout.
"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man." -- JFK Inaugural, 1961
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is not a vice." -- Barry Goldwater, 1964 GOP Nomination acceptance speech (not George W. Bush 40 years later...)
2004 Presidential Candidate
2008 Presidential Candidate (for what its worth)Comment
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According to the really neat election map the LA Times has, and their polling data, the win goes to Kerry. Here are some states I transcribed for y'all, based on the most recent polling data available.
Florida
Kerry 49%
Bush 46%
Ohio
Kerry 49%
Bush 47%
Michigan
Kerry 49%
Bush 43%
Pennslyvania
Kerry 51%
Bush 46%
New Hampshire
Kerry 50%
Bush 41%
New Jersey
Kerry 50%
Bush 43%
New Mexico
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%
Oregon
Kerry 49%
Bush 43%
Safely Kerry:
California
Maryland
New York
Illinois
Vermont
DC
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine
Nevada
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%
Missouri
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Arizona
Bush 50%
Kerry 45%
Wisconsin
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
West Virginia
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Safely Bush:
Mississippi
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Virginia
Wyoming
Montana
Idaho
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Kansas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Alaska
Louisiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
Indiana
Colorado
Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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just from the news coverage downunder
Bush Junior gets a better coverage
Kerry is presented as a flip flop sort of fellaComment
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Who will win the election? Me.
"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man." -- JFK Inaugural, 1961
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is not a vice." -- Barry Goldwater, 1964 GOP Nomination acceptance speech (not George W. Bush 40 years later...)
2004 Presidential Candidate
2008 Presidential Candidate (for what its worth)Comment
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Looks good (and nice coloring BTW). I would only disagree on Florida, New Mexico, and maybe Ohio.Originally posted by OzzyKP
According to the really neat election map the LA Times has, and their polling data, the win goes to Kerry. Here are some states I transcribed for y'all, based on the most recent polling data available.
"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man." -- JFK Inaugural, 1961
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is not a vice." -- Barry Goldwater, 1964 GOP Nomination acceptance speech (not George W. Bush 40 years later...)
2004 Presidential Candidate
2008 Presidential Candidate (for what its worth)Comment
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Bush 48 48.00%
Kerry 52 52.00%
Total: 100 voters 100%
oohCSPAComment
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Probably not gunna happen. It'll be a dem victory to just keep things the way they are in the Senate since the Dems are defending more open seats, although what with a couple of Republican candidates going completely loony (like the apparently senile one in Kentucky who demanded that he debade from RNC HQ in DC and then used a teleprompter) you never know...
The Dems are defending more open seats, but I'd say that they have the general advantage. The way I see it:
-Daschle will very likely hold his seat in SD.
-Castor has a slight edge in retaining the Dem seat in FL.
-Obama will certainly take over in IL.
-Salazar will very likely take over in CO.
-Carson has a slight edge in taking over in OK.
-Knowles has a slight edge in taking over in AK.
-Montigardo (sp?) has a slight edge in taking over in KY.
That's Dem+5.
-The GA guy will very likely retain the GOP seat (counting Zell as GOP
).
-DeMint has a slight edge in taking over in SC.
-Burr has a slight edge in taking over in NC.
GOP +2.
Kerry's seat will be taken over by a Dem (probably Barney Franks). And no candidate will get 50% in LA, most likely, so the seat will be decided later.
Which means a slight Democratic advantage in the Senate, depending on LA."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Ramo:
-Daschle will very likely hold his seat in SD.
The spread has Thune up on Dascle by 0.5%. It'll be close, but Thune could win just as easily.
-Castor has a slight edge in retaining the Dem seat in FL.
Yep, the spread is 0.8% in favor of Castor.
-Salazar will very likely take over in CO.
Salazar has a spread edge of 2.2, so seems likely.
-Carson has a slight edge in taking over in OK.
You must be kidding.
The RealClear spread is 3.7%, which is a pretty good size.
-Knowles has a slight edge in taking over in AK.
Yeah, he's polling +2 to +6.
-Montigardo (sp?) has a slight edge in taking over in KY.
Another. Throw in another
Bunning has a 10.5% lead in the spread.
So that makes it more like Dems +3 (whith the Republicans having a chance to make it +4 if Daschle loses).“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)Comment
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Attached FilesCaptain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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You must be kidding.
The RealClear spread is 3.7%, which is a pretty good size.
3.7% is barely outside the margin of error of most of the polls, could very easily change. I'm not sure how RCP calculates its spread, either, I'm just saying what I think given the trend of the race.
Another . Throw in another
Bunning has a 10.5% lead in the spread.
As Boshko pointed out, Bunning's campaign is imploding. Bunning is currently running away from the press. And the debates have been a disaster. In the first debate, which he had already agreed upon, Bunning insisted on staying in DC conducting it by satellite, and had an actual teleprompter. In the second (again, one he agreed upon), he simply didn't show. He's also been saying some real bizarre stuff, like that Montigardo looks like Uday/Qusay. Rumor is that he's going crazy.
The most recent polls show him up by only 6 or so, and the trend has been hugely against his favor (it used to be a far larger difference, just a couple weeks ago).
The spread has Thune up on Dascle by 0.5%. It'll be close, but Thune could win just as easily.
Thune's campaign has been imploding too. There's been a pretty big campaign scandal, can't recall what it was though. Thune's nephew was involved somehow.Last edited by Ramo; October 27, 2004, 12:26."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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