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Who Will Win the Election?

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  • #151
    I undertand that Bush has taken a two point lead in Pennsylvannia in some polls. I heard this on Hannity's radio show. If so, Bush would be in the lead. As it is, Kerry hold as slight lead, 260-254, in the following from electoral-vote.com:
    Attached Files
    http://tools.wikimedia.de/~gmaxwell/jorbis/JOrbisPlayer.php?path=John+Williams+The+Imperial+M arch+from+The+Empire+Strikes+Back.ogg&wiki=en

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    • #152
      PA polls of the past week:

      Pollster
      Polling Date
      Bush
      Kerry
      Nader
      MoE

      Zogby ($)
      October 27
      46.1%
      48.9%
      ---
      4.1%

      LA Times ($)
      October 26
      49.0%
      47.0%
      0.0%
      3.9%

      LA Times
      October 26
      48.0%
      48.0%
      ---
      4.0%

      Gallup
      October 26
      47.0%
      50.0%
      ---
      4.0%

      Quinnipiac
      October 26
      49.0%
      47.0%
      ---
      3.3%

      ARG
      October 25
      47.0%
      50.0%
      ---
      4.0%

      Survey USA
      October 25
      45.0%
      53.0%
      ---
      3.5%

      Zogby ($)
      October 24
      45.4%
      47.3%
      ---
      4.1%

      Rasmussen ($)
      October 24
      47.0%
      49.0%
      ---
      ??

      Keystone
      October 23
      46.0%
      51.0%
      ---
      3.9%

      Muhlenberg College
      October 22
      46.0%
      48.0%
      ---
      3.5%

      Mason-Dixon ($)
      October 21
      44.0%
      46.0%
      ---
      4.0%

      Quinnipiac
      October 20
      44.0%
      50.0%
      3.0%
      3.4%

      Quinnipiac
      October 20
      46.0%
      51.0%
      ---
      3.4%

      Kerry is winning, and the incumbent rule gives him a comofortable margin.
      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
      -Bokonon

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      • #153
        The margins of error on most polls makes them pretty useless - the only real conclusion you can draw for most states is that it could go either way (except Utah ).

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        • #154
          404 Error Page
          http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=488


          Poll shows Kerry up by 17% (yes, you read that correctly) in Florida among early voters. The sample is relatively small - only 208 early voters, but the margin of error for that subset is still only about a third of the the spread. This is gonna be a landslide (i.e. Kerry's going to win by more than 5% as I predicted earlier).
          "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
          -Bokonon

          Comment

          • #155
            Ramo, thanks for the Penn polls. The polls seem to be split. Some show Bush ahead. Some show the scumbag empty suit ahead.
            http://tools.wikimedia.de/~gmaxwell/jorbis/JOrbisPlayer.php?path=John+Williams+The+Imperial+M arch+from+The+Empire+Strikes+Back.ogg&wiki=en

            Comment

            • #156
              2/14 show Dear Leader ahead (within the MoE), 1/14 shows them tied, 11/14 show Kerry ahead. And 4/14 show Kerry ahead outside the MoE.
              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
              -Bokonon

              Comment

              • #157
                Originally posted by Ramo
                [url]This is gonna be a landslide (i.e. Kerry's going to win by more than 5% as I predicted earlier).
                Are you trying to jinx this election?!

                Comment

                • #158
                  Errr.. right. Actually, Bush is gonna win in a landslide.
                  "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                  -Bokonon

                  Comment

                  • #159
                    Originally posted by Vince278
                    Based on?
                    Ted Striker being 100% correct all of the time.
                    We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                    • #160
                      Originally posted by Ted Striker


                      Ted Striker being 100% correct all of the time.
                      To us, it is the BEAST.

                      Comment

                      • #161
                        Originally posted by Ned
                        Ramo, thanks for the Penn polls. The polls seem to be split. Some show Bush ahead. Some show the scumbag empty suit ahead.
                        it sounds like you're saying that cheney is running against bush.
                        What can make a nigga wanna fight a whole night club/Figure that he ought to maybe be a pimp simply 'cause he don't like love/What can make a nigga wanna achy, break all rules/In a book when it took a lot to get you hooked up to this volume/
                        What can make a nigga wanna loose all faith in/Anything that he can't feel through his chest wit sensation

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                        • #162
                          John Zogby was on The Daily Show today, and he said that Kerry is going to win. Given Zoggie's track record in presidential politics, that certainly gives me heart.

                          I haven't felt it until this week, but now I am pretty darned optimistic that Kerry is going to win this thing. If the big news story going into the weekend continues to be the Al Qaaqaa ****-up, Bush is going to have a very bad Tuesday.
                          Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                          • #163
                            Originally posted by Sava
                            wow even money so far... I'm surprised. I thought Kerry would be pwning in this poll.
                            I would like Kerry to win, but I think Bush will.
                            Any views I may express here are personal and certainly do not in any way reflect the views of my employer. Tis the rising of the moon..

                            Look, I just don't anymore, okay?

                            Comment

                            • #164
                              Yeah, I voted for Bush here as well, but that was 3 weeks ago. Things are looking up now!
                              Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                              • #165
                                Originally posted by Boris Godunov

                                I haven't felt it until this week, but now I am pretty darned optimistic that Kerry is going to win this thing.

                                optimism

                                Ted Striker
                                A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

                                Comment

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