Who Will Win the Election?

[Ramo]

Bennie, you're delusional.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://www.ohiolife.org/

Better get your phone ready, Guynemer.

I'm sure they have a branch in Columbus.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Am I screwed?

Yes.

New Mexico 5 more likely than not.
Colorado 9 same
Nevada 5 same
Arkansas 6 same
West Virginia 5 same

Absolutely true. Granted.

Ohio 20 same

Not so much. All indicators are trending Kerry recently. This is first-hand knowledge, I see it all around me, and it's quite evident in state polling.

Florida 27 same

This is probably true. I don't see Kerry winning Florida unless something very surprising happens.

Michigan 17 toss up
Pennsylvania 21 toss up

Wrong. I'd be quite surprised if Bush won either of these states; flabbergasted if he took both.

Iowa 7 toss up

True.

Minnesota 10 not unreasonable
Wisconsin 10 same

True. Not unreasonable. But is it likely he'll take both, when he can't crack 46 or 47 in either state's polling?

New Jersey 15 same.

No, very unreasonable. The only polling firm that has Bush so much as tied with Kerry in New Jersey is Strategic Vision, an avowed Republican polling firm. They are admittedly partisan.

You are the one that should be worried. All your hopes are pinned on New Jersey. If Kerry loses New Jersey, you are likely shafted on all the rest.

To have it come down to one state, is where I want it to be.

No way, man. All my hopes on New Jersey? All I need is for Kerry to take one state out of six where he currently leads, or pull a surprise in Florida or Colorado.

This is almost as big a lock as the Miami Dolphins not winning the Super Bowl this year.

[Ramo]

And due to the incumbent rule, the elections results will swing another few points in Kerry's favor from the latest polls, solidifying his victory.

[Ben Kenobi]

The only polling firm that has Bush so much as tied with Kerry in New Jersey is Strategic Vision, an avowed Republican polling firm. They are admittedly partisan.

That's what I keep hearing, is that the numbers are not quite right?

But then who believes polls anyways? Up here we had an 8 point swing against the Conservatives in the last day.

The pollsters and the papers, all want this to be a close election, so it is in their best interests to make it as close as possible.

One thing I find interesting is to look at the less 'publicised' states.

Even in Massachusetts, Bush pulls down 35%. Kerry can't boast that in the Bush states, and Bush is only 7 points down in California.

To put it this way, it is almost as likely that Bush will win California, as it is for Kerry to win a state like Nevada.

[dojoboy]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Oh, and latest Zogby: Kerry 47%, Bush 46%

For the incumbent to be at 46% 3 days before an election is disasterous. Bush's team is looking veeeery nervous lately, and we can see why!

RCP has Bush at a 3.3% lead (48.8%) which is .7% off last year's lead going in, with 3 days to go. I think both sides are nervous. The media has touted new voters for the Democrats, but we'd be silly to think the Republicans have been sitting on their hands. Kerry doesn't enjoy the support of nearly as many people as Gore did. Bush-haters by nature are Democrats, so no votes lost here. Undecided votes in 2000 were at 7% going in, this time they're at 3%, so even less votes breaking for Kerry on election day. Throw in the latest terrorist videos and you have Americans responding with their middle finger, breaking toward Bush. I believe mathematically it's still in Bush's favor.

[Ben Kenobi]

All indicators are trending Kerry recently. This is first-hand knowledge, I see it all around me, and it's quite evident in state polling.

You guys can't even pull a majority here on Apolyton.

What makes you think you can win this for real?

I'm absolutely shocked, that given all the posters here, that Kerry is losing.

[Ramo]

RCP, in 2000, predicted that Bush would win by 10% and 400 electoral votes.

[Drachasor]

Something the polls can't fully handle is that there is going to be a massive turnout this year. Analysts in Florida predict that 70% of the eligible electorate will vote. The polls can't properly assess how likely these new voters are to actually vote, because this election is not like anything we've seen in modern polling times.

Large turnouts always favor Democrats, so if anyone gets a significant boost, it will be Kerry. It is, of course, very likely he will get a good boost.

-Drachasor

[dojoboy]

WHY BUSH WILL WIN

By DICK MORRIS
October 29, 2004 --

HERE'S a two-part test to determine who will win on Tuesday:

a) Ask yourself: What is the issue we are talking about these days? Are we focused on terrorism and Iraq, or on health care and jobs? The answer is obvious: terrorism and Iraq.

b) Now look at the polls. Not the page that shows who they're voting for. That changes every hour. Look at the page that asks, "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the war in Iraq?"

The answer is always President Bush, usually by 10 points. And right below that, on "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the War on Terror?" Bush leads again, usually by 20 points.

If the issue is terrorism and Iraq, and Bush wins those issues by double digits, then the winner will be . . . voila, Bush!

John Kerry was on the verge of moving out to a victory after the third debate. Taking advantage of its pre-ordained focus on domestic issues, he had finally, finally swung the debate back to the issues on which he has — and has always had — a lead: domestic policy. Next he got a short-term bounce from Bill Clinton's presence on the campaign trail and seemed on his way to closing the Bush lead.

Then came the "disappearing explosives" story. Kerry's handlers, tacticians to the last, disregarded the needs of basic strategy and hopped on the issue with all four feet, running a TV ad lambasting Bush for losing the weapons after the invasion.

Strategically, this flawed decision assured that the final week of the campaign would focus on the areas of Bush's strength and Kerry's weakness: Iraq and terrorism. Tactically, it tied the electorate's confidence in John Kerry to the mystery of what actually happened in an ammo dump in the desert 18 months ago.

Then it began to explode in Kerry's face. Soon we heard that there were only three tons of explosives . . . and they weren't there when we occupied the dump . . . and they were removed by the Russians before we got there . . . and, perhaps, there are satellite photos to prove it.

All of a sudden, Kerry seems just not ready for prime time.

The backfire is amplified by the involvement of CBS and The New York Times. The plans of "60 Minutes" and Dan Rather to break the story on the Sunday before the election reflect overt partisan bias — an overt conspiracy of these leading outlets to stack the deck in favor of Kerry.

This controversy unraveling in front of us all, replete with conspiracy theories and denouement of media bias, is enough to occupy our attention and rivet our focus as Election Day approaches. It will drive all other stories off the front pages and will make the war in Iraq the key element in the election.

At this writing, the possibility that the alleged al Qaeda tape virtually endorsing Kerry will hit the airwaves makes one even more confident of a Bush victory. A threat to let blood run in the streets of America if Bush wins won't intimidate voters, but rather remind them of the importance of sending a warrior to fight the terrorists — and seal Bush's victory.

[Ben Kenobi]

And due to the incumbent rule, the elections results will swing another few points in Kerry's favor from the latest polls, solidifying his victory.

4 years of Bush, a booming economy, a president during a time of war?

Doesn't seem cause to turf Bush.

[Ramo]

In my county, 38% of registered voters have already voted.

Turnout will be massive.

[Ben Kenobi]

Large turnouts always favor Democrats,

So far that hasn't been the case.

I think people forget all the Evangelicals who sat on their hands in the last go round.

[Ramo]

4 years of Bush, a booming economy, a president during a time of war?

Doesn't seem cause to turf Bush.

You mean massive job losses, and astounding incompetence in waging the war?

Undecideds in incumbent races overwhelmingly break to the challenger. This has nearly always been the case in Presidential races.

[Drachasor]

Oh, and Kerry isn't doing badly in Florida, as some might think.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10217

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=916

Almost everywhere Bush is leading it is well within margin of error, which is well within the capability of the challenger and voter-turn-out boosts to give Kerry a significant win.

-Drachasor