Who Will Win the Election?

[Ramo]

The Danish media is wrong, the past couple weeks have definitely been in Kerry's favor (barring a couple days of the Mary Cheney barrage). The tracking polls:

http://www.nowchannel.com/tracking/

[Lawrence of Arabia]

all i know is that badnarik will do extremely well in the western states (AZ 2 - 3%, NM 3 - 5%, NEV 2 - 3%, CA 1%, WIS 2- 3%)

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Ramo
The Danish media is wrong, the past couple weeks have definitely been in Kerry's favor (barring a couple days of the Mary Cheney barrage). The tracking polls:

One can find a poll to support anyone's personal agenda.

[Ramo]

And if you take them together, there's been a noticable trend in favor of Kerry. Hence, the link.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, on Fox News today, they were showing how Bush's lead (that they had) was shrinking greatly.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Ramo
And if you take them together, there's been a noticable trend in favor of Kerry. Hence, the link.

Lets do a poll on the number of polls that show whichever candidate is ahead.

[Impaler[WrG]]

I'm operating under the assumption that ALL the polling is showing Bush ahead by 5-10 points more then he will actualy get in the Election due to several factors. What looks like a Tie the night before will be a strong Kerry Victory on Election night with >55% popular vote.

1 - The highest Voter turn out in a generation
2 - Poor Polling of young voters like myself who lack home phones, which prevents pollers from even realizing that 1 is coming
3 - Independents/Undesideds going for Kerry

[The Mad Monk]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280

Strong Kerry (88)
Weak Kerry (103)
Barely Kerry (52)
Exactly tied (15)
Barely Bush (62)
Weak Bush (71)
Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[The Mad Monk]

Averaged Nonpartisan Polls: Kerry 248 Bush 263

Strong Kerry (84)
Weak Kerry (106)
Barely Kerry (58)
Exactly tied (27)
Barely Bush (45)
Weak Bush (71)
Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct30z.html

[Impaler[WrG]]

Asuming Kerry takes NewJersy which the site says is practicaly guaranteed and that everything else goes to who its currently leaning towards then Kerry needs to do do one of 3 upsets to win.

Win Ohio
Win Michigan
Win any 2 or the following Colorado/Iowa/West Virginia

Ohio is the one most likly to happen though I belive its likly all of them will happen and their will be even deeper erosion into the "Weakly Bush" states such as Arizona ware I live.

[Guynemer]

Kerry WILL win Michigan. It would be an upset if he did not win Michigan. He needs more than that, though.

He appears to be solidifying his leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as well. He's pulled back ahead in the latest polls in Iowa and New Mexico. And he appears to be poised to pull New Hampshire to the Democratic column.

This would give him all the states Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire. He'd still be 6 EC votes short of 270.

You can forget West Virgina or Colorado--not gonna happen. Nevada too. Not out of the realm of possibility, but highly unlikely--which speaks partially to the weakness of Kerry as a candidate, as WV traditionally is a solid Democratic state (2000 notwithstanding).

He needs Ohio or Florida. Ohio seems more likely; most polls over the past few weeks have shown him in the lead. However, like in 2000 Florida, Bush's state campaign manager is also the Secretary of State, who has tried some various registration/voting shenanigans. And Florida, well, Florida is still ****ed. You know some weird **** is gonna go down; hell, it already has, with 70,000 vanished absentee ballots.

It all comes down to Ohio. With Ohio, Kerry could afford to lose 14 EC he currently has (say, Wisconsin and New Hampshire). With Florida, he could affording to lose up to 21 EC he currently has (WI, NH, NM).

[Gangerolf]

It looks more and more like a Bush win, which means I'm going to lose $100

[Boris Godunov]

I forgot about WVA's faithless elector, which takes 1 vote away from the Bush column should he win the state. I wouldn't be so quick to write off WVA. The Dems still hold a huge registration advantage, and they've run an excellent ground game there. It hasn't been polled very much during the election, either. Could be an early Kerry surprise.

Also, CO's 9 votes may not all go to the winner. There's a measure on the ballot to make it so CO's votes split between the candidates based on percentage of the vote. If the measure passes, it's effective for this election. So even if Bush wins CO, Kerry could get 3-4 EVs from it, should the measure pass.

[Guynemer]

The latest polling on that Colorado amendment is that it will lose (albeit by a narrow margin). Moreover, there have been vows of a court challenge if it did pass.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Gangerolf
It looks more and more like a Bush win, which means I'm going to lose $100

Why do you say that? The current poll data all shows a trend to Kerry. Even Fox's poll shows that, which Bush's 5-point lead shrinking to a dead heat.

Zogby's state poll numbers give Kerry a 6-4 edge in the 10 battleground states. And given the predicted massive turnout and that undecideds always break for the challenger, I'd say it's looking more and more like a Kerry win.