Who Will Win the Election?

[Ming]

Right now... any "predictions" of victory are just wishful thinking. Depending on some of the Polls, Bush is a lock, and others show Kerry is a lock... Even the electorial sites that base their predictions on the latest state surveys disagree on the number of votes...

So sit back and enjoy the ride. Predictions are a waste of time at this point...

[Gangerolf]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


Why do you say that?

Many of the polls show a solid Bush lead.

But what you say makes sense and I hope you are right.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Gangerolf
Many of the polls show a solid Bush lead.

Gallup has shown one, but their flawed method has been dissected many times. Polling more Republicans than Democrats will skew any poll, and it doesn't have any basis on actual reality when it comes to election turnout among the parties (since even when Republicans have won, the Democratic percentage of voters has been slightly higher). Newsweek's Friday poll (which has since shrunk to a tie) had the same flawed method.

But Ming is right, polls aren't predictors of voting, just indicators of current public sentiment. Lot's of people aren't being taken into account in these polls, so it's still a toss-up race.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
so it's still a toss-up race.

While I agree with you 100%, and that I think it will be close... I've read some articales showing how it could still be a blow out for EITHER side. The possibillity is still there for either candidate to get the supposed "mandate" of the people. This should be an interesting one. Since I think both candidates suck big time, and really wish it could work out that neither wins, it's hard to really care at this point who is going to win.

Either way, we get 4 years of a moron, so it's tough to really care

[Boris Godunov]

Well, "toss-up" just means we don't know who will win, not that it MUST be a dead heat. My prediction is that, if Bush wins, it's by another hairbreadth's margin. But if Kerry wins, it will be a decisive victory thanks to the mobilization.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Well, "toss-up" just means we don't know who will win, not that it MUST be a dead heat. My prediction is that, if Bush wins, it's by another hairbreadth's margin. But if Kerry wins, it will be a decisive victory thanks to the mobilization.

Now you're just doing the wishful thinking stuff. Some of the scenarios laid out show that either be the closest election in history with either side just barely winning, or that either side could end up with the "mandate of the people"

I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin. I would have assumed that Kerry would have won any poll thanks to the non Americans.

But I guess that just proves how close this one will probably be.

[chequita guevara]

Kerry has a double digit lead in Florida's early voting. He's also leading in Ohio. Don't know if that means much, though.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Ming
I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin.

This is a poll of who you think will win. Kerry is actually doing better here than on national polls, which show only 36% believe he will win, as opposed to 53% of Americans thinking Bush will win. I think this has to do with a lot of people who are voting for Bush having either low expecations of their fellow Americans or expecting the GOP to steal the election again.

[Ming]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
or expecting the GOP to steal the election again.

Give it up guys... Gore lost... time to move on

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ming
Now you're just doing the wishful thinking stuff.

No, it's not just wishful thinking. Kerry and the Dem's have huge registration advantage. Early indicators of turnout are that it will also be huge, something which almost always favors the challenger and/or the Dems.

So Kerry's got the mobilization thing down. But victory depends on out-mobilizing the Republicans. If Bush can really get a huge turnout of his people to offset the Dems, he can win, but it will have to be close. If he fails to get enough turnout to win, then it's likely the Dem mobilization will bowl him over.

I don't forsee, given the huge Dem turnout engine, any way Bush can win in a huge romp.

I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin. I would have assumed that Kerry would have won any poll thanks to the non Americans.

Ben K made the same mistake. The thread's poll isn't asking people who they would vote for, but who they think will win. You got a large number of Kerry backers who are convinced that the Republicans are going steal the election no matter what. While I don't know about that, I myself voted for Bush in this poll, because 3 weeks ago I thought he was more likely to win. Were I to vote today, I'd vote Kerry. Considering this isnt' a poll that can guage the fluidity of the race (It's been open since Oct. 8 and people can't change their votes), I wouldn't put any stock in what it's saying at all.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
No, it's not just wishful thinking...

I don't forsee, given the huge Dem turnout engine, any way Bush can win in a huge romp.

The fact that you can't acknowledge that chance that Bush can win in a huge romp and that your candidate can only lose a close one is just that... wishful thinking.

I'm not saying it won't happen that way... but many experts have laid out different scenarios (based on the wildly swinging state polls) that show either candidate could still get that mandate. At this point, anything could still happen... even a Bush romp.

[Ramo]

There won't be a Bush romp in popular votes. Everyone who the polls are ignoring, or don't take into account overwhelmingly favor Kerry. The big one is undecideds, who traditionally favor challengers and give Bush absolutely abysmal approval ratings. Newly registered voters, who are left out in most LV screens, favor Kerry by a 10-15% margin. Voters who only use cell phones favor Kerry by a similar margin. Early voters who are turning out in unprecedented rates are consistently disproportionately Democratic. If there's a romp, it will definitely be in Kerry's favor.

Electoral votes are another matter entirely, and could swing easily.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Ramo
Electoral votes are another matter entirely, and could swing easily.

That's right

Anything can still happen at this point...

[chequita guevara]

Wednesday morning we'll wake up to tanks in the streets and helicopters flying overhead, with Ashcroft proclaiming the Kingdom of Gilead and announcing the ascention of King Bush the First.

I really don't want anything to happen.

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Wednesday morning we'll wake up to tanks in the streets and helicopters flying overhead, with Ashcroft proclaiming the Kingdom of Gilead and announcing the ascention of King Bush the First.

The nice thing about the military is that they'd *never* go along with that.

-Drachasor