Who Will Win the Election?

[Boris Godunov]

Current Electoralvote.com tracker:

Kerry 283
Bush 246

And I'm really doubtful about OH sticking with Bush. I still think Kerry will win that one.

[Boris Godunov]

And the Packers win!

Another nail in W's coffin.

[Ramo]

For Bush to be leading, in the wake of what pro-Kerry people profess about new voters and etc., is pretty telling about how LV/RV feel about Kerry. I don't think the Democrats are going to catch the Republicans off guard. That doesn't necessarily mean Bush will win, however.

As I pointed out, Kerry is overperforming Gore in early voting by 4 points, according to that poll. If this pattern holds, Kerry will win by a fair margin.

[Drachasor]

As I said, I think Kerry is going to carry Ohio and Florida and win with over 300 Electoral votes.

-Drachasor

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by dojoboy
For Bush to be leading, in the wake of what pro-Kerry people profess about new voters and etc., is pretty telling about how LV/RV feel about Kerry. I don't think the Democrats are going to catch the Republicans off guard. That doesn't necessarily mean Bush will win, however.

No one is realistically saying the new voters and etc. would give Kerry a 10% advantage or anything, just an extra bounce of 3-4% in the final numbers. This poll of voters bears that out precisely.

[ixnay]

PACKERS WIN

[dojoboy]

Averaged nonpartisan polls.

[Boris Godunov]

That puts OH in a better light...but look at IN!

If IN is really a dead heat, then Bush IS dead meat!

Edit: I went to electoral-vote.com, and they've reversed a poll's numbers in IN between Bush and Kerry on one of the polls they included in the average. Duh. I knew there was little chance Kerry could be close in IN, which is about as GOP as a state gets.

It does make suspect their assessments, though.

Edit 2: After looking some more at their tracking of polls, I'm even more astonished at how sloppy they are. One poll they had showed Bush leading Kerry in IA 56%-49%. Looking back at the poll's actualy numbers should have made it 49%-46% in favor of Kerry.

Another poll showed signs of being reversed, as it showed Bush leading Kerry 52%-38% in NY. Um, yeah right!

[DanS]

Dems should be ashamed of themselves that Hawaii and Michigan are in play. I'm also surprised that Bush is doing so well in Iowa. Bush has moved New Mexico to his column.

We'll just see if Kerry can pick off Ohio or Florida to get the victory. Both states have a strong GOP (Ohio's being the stronger of the two). Ohio has some wildcards (gay marriage, Voinovich being popular, new voters).

All in all it's a very interesting race.

[DanS]

An interesting comparison is between Bush/Kerrey and Roosevelt/Dewey. I think it's instructive to note that Roosevelt almost got beat. The last Gallup poll had him up by only 2 points, but he went on to win 53% to 46%.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DanS
Dems should be ashamed of themselves that Hawaii and Michigan are in play.

As should the Republicans be ashamed that Ohio, Nevada and [now] Virginia are in play.

I don't see why Dems should be ashamed about Michigan--Gore's victory margin there was narrow.

Demographics change, that's the nature of politics.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DanS
An interesting comparison is between Bush/Kerrey and Roosevelt/Dewey. I think it's instructive to note that Roosevelt almost got beat. The last Gallup poll had him up by only 2 points, but he went on to win 53% to 46%.

Yeah, but up until the 1948 Truman-Dewey race, pollsters used quota sampling instead of random sampling. Apples and oranges.

[Dis]

So what happens if there is a major terrorst attack on Tuesday? Does Bush declare the election null and void and seize control of the country?

[Dis]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


As should the Republicans be ashamed that Ohio, Nevada and [now] Virginia are in play.

I don't see why Dems should be ashamed about Michigan--Gore's victory margin there was narrow.

Demographics change, that's the nature of politics.

Nevada's fall shouldn't be blamed on the republicans. The fact is most of our new population is from California. True these are Californians who dislike high taxes (hence why they came to my state), but they still have liberal tendencies. Our political shift is because of a major demographic change. You guys just don't understand how fast our population is increasing.

[DanS]

I don't think Virginia is in play. Also, Nevada is an uphill battle for Kerry. Considering that Gore only lost to Bush by 3 points, and the subsequent job losses, everybody knew Ohio was in play.

In any event, here is the Pew Center's Poll. I place a lot of confidence in the Pew Center's polling.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=232