Who Will Win the Election?

[Ramo]

HI will defintely not be close. I can't imagine otherwise. The last legitimate poll showed the race tied at 43. The incumbent rule means that Kerry will pick up the rest of the slack.

As for Iowa, early voting is so far has been Kerry 52, Bush 41.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041030/NEWS09/41030009/1001

NM has been trending back to Kerry in the past couple days (i.e., ARG, Zogby). I would not say that it's in Bush's column. And there's the Richardson factor, as well as a potentially large number of hispanics that are hard to poll, that favor Kerry by large margins.

The 2000 margins in NM, Iowa, and to a lesser extent MI, were all very close, BTW.

[Dis]

Originally posted by DanS
I don't think Nevada and Virginia are in play. Considering that Gore only lost to Bush by 3 points, and the subsequent job losses, everybody knew Ohio was in play.

In any event, here is the Pew Center's Poll. I place a lot of confidence in the Pew Center's polling.

http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=232

yeah but we need state by state polls. because there are only a few states that matter. national polls are worthless.

[Ramo]

Note that they're tied among RV's in the Pew poll. I think turnout will confound lots of pollsters' LV models.

NV is definitely in play. SUSA showed the race tied, Ras showed Kerry down by two, Zogby showed Kerry down by 4. The all-important incumbent rule, plus unexpetected turnout, could put Kerry over the top.

VA is a longshot, but defintely not impossible.

[DanS]

I DanS'ed about Nevada. It seems like an uphill battle for Kerry.

[DanS]

I think turnout will confound lots of pollsters' LV models.

This seems like wishful thinking to me. You might be right, but you're probably wrong.

[Boris Godunov]

Why do you trust Pew so much, again?

New Pew poll shows Kerry up 1 in RV (none / 0)

Of course they add a good helping of LV bias, and then even more "assigning" of undecideds to Bush to come up with the 51-48 number that they headline.
But here's the internal data:

46 Kerry - 45 Bush in RV (up from 45-45 last week)

According to their "LV", they warp this into 48 Bush - 45 Kerry.

Garbage.

Note this poll is a bit older than others: 27-30th.

Look at the incredibly bogus Party-ID:

37 R, 35 D, 23 I

Nice!

If you use the internal data of party-prefs:

Reps: 93-4-
Dems: 6-90-
Inds: 44-48-2

And apply the 2000 exit poll 39D-35R-26I:

Kerry = .39*90 + .35 * 4 + .26 * 48 = 49.0
Bush = .39*6 + .35 * 93 + .26 * 44 = 46.3

Yep, Pew data actually shows Kerry 49, Bush 46.3

Nice headline, guys.

ALSO:

Even with the skewed sampling they use, the internal data also has:

Kerry 48 - Bush 45 in Battleground states.

Another poll using a Republican-heavy sample with no apparent basis.

In 2000, Pew had Bush up 49-47 over Gore just before the election. Bush underperformed on that model in the election, and Gore overperformed.

[Ramo]

Cook (of The Cook Report) said that he's never seen anything like the enthusiasm to vote this year. I have a far more limited experience, but I think he's right.

[Ramo]

Hmmm.. misread the article. Make that Kerry up by one, rather than tied.

[Dis]

Originally posted by DanS
I DanS'ed about Nevada. It seems like an uphill battle for Kerry.

Kerry has a great shot at taking my state. More democrats than Republicans have voted in the 2 largest counties. Although the non party or 3rd party voters are still up in the air. It's hard to say who they vote for.

These are actual figures from early voting. Not polls.

[Boris Godunov]

The bottom line is that Kerry is in a better position both in terms of the popular vote polls and EC map than Gore was at this point 4 years ago. And given that he has the advantage of being a challenger against an incumbent with mid-40s approval ratings who can't seem to break 48% in the polls, and that the Democrats are mounting their largest turnout engine ever, I'd say the odds are with Kerry going into the last 24 hours.

[Dis]

actually I was wrong about Washoe country. The repubicans did creep up past the dems in early voting.

Total


33025
13974 13992
5059

first number is total. second is dems. third is repugs and last is others

but in Clark country nearly 10000 more democrats than republicans have voted (this was a few days ago, let me find up to date numbers)

[Boris Godunov]

That doesn't say who they're voting for, though. That's a dead heat, and if the undecideds break for Kerry even slightly, he's ahead there. Any early voting numbers from 2000?

[DanS]

The internals to the Pew poll show that Bush has more strength of support than he did 4 years while Kerrey has less strength of support than Gore. To hold your position, you have to believe that the difference will be made up by Bush-haters. Not impossible, to be sure.

[Dis]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
That doesn't say who they're voting for, though. That's a dead heat, and if the undecideds break for Kerry even slightly, he's ahead there. Any early voting numbers from 2000?

yep. but it wouldn't be right to release the actual votes. . that could sway future voters.

I'm willing to bet more republicans voted democrats than democrats voted republican. just a feeling

and as I mentioned before. It does not show how 3rd party or non party voters voted. That's the big question mark.

Even if the republicans do narrowly take Washoe county Kerry could easily win. That county is many, many times smaller than my county. And my county voted for Al Gore in 2000.

The reason why a narrow republican victory is important is because the republicans need to win BIG in the other Nevada counties in order to win the state. Something they did do in 2000.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DanS
The internals to the Pew poll show that Bush has more strength of support than he did 4 years while Kerrey has less strength of support than Gore. To hold your position, you have to believe that the difference will be made up by Bush-haters. Not impossible, to be sure.

Not only not impossible, but most probable. As Zogby pointed out, this is Bush vs. Not Bush. While it's clear overall opinion of JK has improved a lot among Democrats since the convention, there's never been much question that this election is more about beating Bush.

Elections with incumbents are referendums on the incumbent. An incumbent who's got a 49%-46% unfavorable-favorable rating, as Bush does now, is in deep, deep trouble.