Who Will Win the Election?

[chequita guevara]

I know.

[Ben Kenobi]

And to show that, I accept the bet readily. I'll even up the ante for a whole month, given my sporadic nature of posting these days.

I don't mind an even bet. 2 weeks for us both. If I get the job I'm up for, my posting will go down dramatically.

I'd like to have this avatar up, (with Denise's birthday coming up), so 2 weeks is good for me.

[Ben Kenobi]

Tucker Carlson, conservative pundit

/me raises eyebrow.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Carlson is, at least, a Republican pundit. It depends on your definition of conservative whether he is one or not .

[Ben Kenobi]

You got a large number of Kerry backers who are convinced that the Republicans are going steal the election no matter what.

Boris:

That to me is an indicator that they lack confidence in their candidate.

People sway in the wind, and if they aren't sure that their candidate will win, may just vote for the person they wanted to vote for.

That's why I made my comment about being a registered conservative voter, yet declining to vote Conservative in wake of the poor campaign ran by the local conservative candidate.

While I don't know about that, I myself voted for Bush in this poll, because 3 weeks ago I thought he was more likely to win. Were I to vote today, I'd vote Kerry. Considering this isnt' a poll that can guage the fluidity of the race (It's been open since Oct. 8 and people can't change their votes), I wouldn't put any stock in what it's saying at all.

I do. The fact that you are not confident in Kerry, enough to change your mind about the outcome, speaks volumes.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't mind an even bet. 2 weeks for us both. If I get the job I'm up for, my posting will go down dramatically.

BWOCK BWOCK BWOCK!

[Ben Kenobi]

Carlson is, at least, a Republican pundit. It depends on your definition of conservative whether he is one or not

He's about as conservative as Zell Miller is liberal.

[Ben Kenobi]

BWOCK BWOCK BWOCK!

Yeah, I'll be laughing all the way to the bank if I get this job, regardless of the result of the US election.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
He's about as conservative as Zell Miller is liberal.

Ah, the dementia of the far right raises its head once again .

Backing Bush makes him such a liberal .

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
That to me is an indicator that they lack confidence in their candidate.

No, it's an indicator that they have confidence the other side will use dirty tricks and fraud.

People sway in the wind, and if they aren't sure that their candidate will win, may just vote for the person they wanted to vote for.

This has nothing to do with people believing their guy is going to win or lose. U.S. polling has held that by a close to 60-40 margin, people thought Bush would win. But at the same time, Bush wasn't getting anywhere near that margin in the polls. Now, the margin has dwindled dramatically.

I do. The fact that you are not confident in Kerry, enough to change your mind about the outcome, speaks volumes.

What? I specifically said that were I able to change my vote in this poll, I would change it to Kerry now. Was I not clear on that?

You undercut your own argument when mentioning the "swaying in the wind," anyway. Indeed, 3 weeks ago, things looked very different than they do now. This online poll has no means to factor in such changes, as votes three weeks ago can't be changed to reflect the new reality. In sum, it's a completely useless measure of actual sentiment of the support for either candidate.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ah, the dementia of the far right raises its head once again .

Backing Bush makes him such a liberal

And backing Kerry makes one a Conservative?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well if you believe that fiscal responsibility is better served by divided government, then perhaps so.

However, Tucker is not backing Kerry.

From his "Unfiltered" website:

This Tuesday, I'm not voting for John Kerry. I don't want him to be president.

[Ben Kenobi]

No, it's an indicator that they have confidence the other side will use dirty tricks and fraud.

Unlike the boy scout Dems, and their dead voters, eh?

This has nothing to do with people believing their guy is going to win or lose. U.S. polling has held that by a close to 60-40 margin, people thought Bush would win. But at the same time, Bush wasn't getting anywhere near that margin in the polls. Now, the margin has dwindled dramatically.

Not by my estimate, given the overall leftish flavour of Apolyton.

Bush is still leading, which is incredible.

What? I specifically said that were I able to change my vote in this poll, I would change it to Kerry now. Was I not clear on that?

And given that you are part of Kerry's base, it would be the same as me suddenly changing my confidence as an Evangelical voter for Bush.

You undercut your own argument when mentioning the "swaying in the wind," anyway. Indeed, 3 weeks ago, things looked very different than they do now. This online poll has no means to factor in such changes, as votes three weeks ago can't be changed to reflect the new reality. In sum, it's a completely useless measure of actual sentiment of the support for either candidate.

Again, it demonstrates, that Kerry's base doesn't seem all that confident in Kerry, as recently as 3 weeks ago.

Now, if something can change that much in 3 weeks, surely it can also change back?

[Ben Kenobi]

Well if you believe that fiscal responsibility is better served by divided government, then perhaps so.

You're going to be the saddest person over the upcoming four years of anyone here.

If Bush wins, you'll be bitter. If Kerry wins, you'll be disillusioned.

However, Tucker is not backing Kerry.

That's why he's the token conservative on CNN. He gets paid to say that.

[Imran Siddiqui]

You're going to be the saddest person over the upcoming four years of anyone here.

If Bush wins, you'll be bitter. If Kerry wins, you'll be disillusioned.

No, I'll be happy we aren't under Dear Leader Bush. Anyone is better. Even if Kerry increases spending on a health care plan, tax cuts for the middle class, at least we'll have more civil liberties without a PATRIOT 2 and our allies won't hate our guts.

If you think I'll be disillusioned, you seem to forget how much I despise Bush .