Who Will Win the Election?

[The Mad Monk]

How's Wash...Ore...whichever soggy northwestern state you moved to?

[Boris Godunov]

OR... it's quite nice, sogginess and all. Lots of Kerry/Edwards signs here.

I have out-of-town guests for the weekend. Need to head to breakfast with them now. Hopefully BK will be done searching by the time I can check back this evening.

[Boris Godunov]

Oh, and latest Zogby: Kerry 47%, Bush 46%

For the incumbent to be at 46% 3 days before an election is disasterous. Bush's team is looking veeeery nervous lately, and we can see why!

[Ben Kenobi]

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=109925

[Ben Kenobi]

Probably because bet and ben are three letter words, and don't register on the search.

You try searching the **** OT archive.

[Ben Kenobi]

I apologise, Boris.

You never accepted the bet offered.

Guynemer on the other hand.

He'll owe we me a week volunteering for a prolife organisation.

[The Mad Monk]

Ben, that bet was a little steep, don't you think?

[Ben Kenobi]

So you want to up the ante, eh, Guynemer?

Here's the deal.

Avatars, plus:

If you win, I have to spend a week volunteering at a planned parenthood clinic.

If I win, you have to volunteer for the local right to life organisation.


Done and done.

Bush must win 359 EC votes.

[Ben Kenobi]

Hopefully BK will be done searching by the time I can check back this evening.

I'm a researcher by trade.

You underestimate my 733t skillz.

[Guynemer]

I forgot all about that.


This is so in the bag for me.

[Ben Kenobi]

So did I.

I thought it was Boris who accepted.

Are you in Michigan now, Guynemer?

[Guynemer]

Nope. Ohio.

[Guynemer]

To hit 359, here's what you'll need ("most" likely scenario):

All the solid Bush states (202), plus
New Mexico 5
Colorado 9
Nevada 5
Florida 27
Ohio 20
Michigan 17
Pennsylvania 21
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10
Wisconsin 10
New Jersey 15
Arkansas 6
West Virginia 5


Or, toss in New Hampshire AND Hawai'i (4 each) and let go of WV, AR, IA, NV, or NM.



You are screwed. All Kerry has to do for me to win the bet is hold his solid states and win ANY ONE of the following: FL, PA, OH, MI, MN, WI, NJ. Even an upset in Colorado would do it.

[Ben Kenobi]

Am I screwed?

New Mexico 5 more likely than not.
Colorado 9 same
Nevada 5 same
Arkansas 6 same
West Virginia 5 same
Ohio 20 same
Florida 27 same
Michigan 17 toss up
Pennsylvania 21 toss up
Iowa 7 toss up

Minnesota 10 not unreasonable
Wisconsin 10 same
New Jersey 15 same.

You are the one that should be worried. All your hopes are pinned on New Jersey. If Kerry loses New Jersey, you are likely shafted on all the rest.

To have it come down to one state, is where I want it to be.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm undefeated on my avatar bets so far.