Who Will Win the Election?

[Alexander's Horse]

ya, the heartland rallies around the man who made the USA hated throughout the world in a kind of lemming like solidarity.

[The Mad Monk]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 236 Bush 281



Strong Kerry (88)
Weak Kerry (83)
Barely Kerry (65)
Exactly tied (21)
Barely Bush (63)
Weak Bush (71)
Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270

[axi]

With latest polls, Kerry seems to easily win

Supposing that all ties go to Kerry...

[axi]

See how easily Kerry wins

Supposing all ties go to Bush...

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Remember our bet Boris?

You choose my avatar for two weeks unless Bush wins 2/3rds of the states, and 2/3rds of the college.

I don't think that was the bet...we need to research it. IIRC, you said a "Bush landslide," to which I responded that that would require a 10% or greater margin in the popular vote. Did we make a bet on the EC?

At any rate, you're losing the bet, big time. There's no way Bush will win with 2/3 of the EC. Not when he, has the incumbent, is polling 47-48% in most polls this close to the election.

[Ben Kenobi]

The bet was 2/3rds of the college, 2/3rds of the states.

Look at my earlier post. I showed, how easily this could happen. If the states that are close for Kerry fall, then I win.

Kerry can even keep New Hampshire.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Look at my earlier post. I showed, how easily this could happen. If the states that are close for Kerry fall, then I win.

That's not "easy," as the notion all those states will go for Bush is an unlikely scenario. Remember the incumbent/undecided breaking rule.

And like I said, I want research on the bet. Can we cite the original post?

[dojoboy]

Article on those who put their money where their mouth is.

The bets are in--Bush to win

Published: October 29, 2004, 10:24 AM PDT

By Andy McCue
Special to CNET News.com


George W. Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's presidential elections, going by online betting patterns.

Although U.S. opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate President Bush from his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, customers of Betfair, an online betting exchange, have overwhelmingly backed the Republican candidate.


Betfair's latest figures show 2.3 million pounds ($4.2 million) have been wagered on Bush, while Kerry has attracted only 680,000 pounds ($1.25 million) in bets. Bush is now at 1-5 odds to stay in office, whereas gamblers can still get odds of 2-1 on Kerry to win.

Betfair said its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls. The patterns correctly predicted that Australia's Prime Minister John Howard would comfortably secure a surprise victory in last month's general election.

Mark Davies, director of communications at Betfair, said opinion polls only survey a small percentage of the population, who have no real incentive to provide accurate information.

"In contrast, Betfair's prices are based on people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," Davies said in a statement. "Our figures have proved to be an amazingly accurate indicator at both the Australian general election last month and the California governor's election last year. As a result, we're sure George Bush will be pleased to hear that Betfair's sharp-minded punters are backing him to the hilt."

[Boris Godunov]

Why not just rely on the color of the World Series uniforms?

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2004/pi20041027_5207_pi039.htm

[dojoboy]

Another random article.

Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election

Oct 29, 3:53 PM (ET)

By LEIGH STROPE

WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting.

The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department acknowledged Friday, "Clearly, this kind of armchair political analysis doesn't belong in government memos, even if they are entirely internal."

The Labor Department report, obtained by The Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John Kerry. Titled "In Focus: Predicting the Election Outcome," the memo says, "Nearly every single model has him winning."

"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models' inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate."

Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.

The Bush administration blamed midlevel employees for preparing inappropriate government material.

"This appears to be an internal ETA document prepared by midlevel ETA staff," said Labor Department spokesman Ed Frank.

Kerry's campaign contended the Bush administration was wasting taxpayers' money.

"If the Bush administration focused more on the economy and less on politics, George Bush would not be the first president in 70 years to lose jobs," said Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer. "George Bush has turned the government into his own taxpayer-funded political machine."

The document also includes a Washington Post story, an article from Monster.com and charts and briefs on the latest economic indicators.

One factor in the election that has been "downplayed is the president's popularity," a variable the report says may be important. "Fortunately, there are models (that) incorporate this concept," it says.

The economic models are not infallible, but they do "systematically measure past data, which is a far cry better than relying on anecdotal evidence," the paper says. The models looked at an array of economic indicators, including gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation.

The analysis also discusses a futures market that lets players bid on a probable election outcome. It also checked Web sites of oddsmakers in America and abroad.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=105915

I found this thread.

Not sure if we made the bet before or after dean, but this seems close to when we made the bet.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=105915

I found this thread.

Not sure if we made the bet before or after dean, but this seems close to when we made the bet.

But there's nothing in there about our bet. Better keep looking.

[Ben Kenobi]

I know it has to be before the 23rd of April.

And I think it very revealing that you are not confident enough to keep to this bet of 2/3rds of the states and 2/3rds of the EC.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
And I think it very revealing that you are not confident enough to keep to this bet of 2/3rds of the states and 2/3rds of the EC.

Notice how I said above that I have no doubt that won't be the case.

I'm trying to keep you honest, that's all. You've demonstrated a "selective memory" in the past. I honestly don't recall that being the terms of the bet we made--but I could be wrong.

Why are you having such trouble finding the bet, hmm?

[The Mad Monk]

Probably because bet and ben are three letter words, and don't register on the search.