CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Flubber]

Originally posted by joncha
They seem reasonable to me too.

Even though you predicted 17 fewer Conservative seats just above??

Just kidding-- Any prediction within a dozen seats either way is pretty good considering the size and scope of this country.


I actually looked at the last few predictions on here and they go

Cons 125-175
Libs 33-85
NDP- 29-40
BQ 58-62

The most consistent is the bloc. There appears to be substantial disaagreement between other posters on the rest. Notably NYE predicts a Liberal collapse. While this could happen, this would mean that the Liberals support in the polls will not translate to votes on election day and some super-strongholds will fall.

I tend to the more moderate view that the Conservatives will likely fall just short of a majority barring some other Liberal gaffe

[Ben Kenobi]

Yeah, that's not too far from my earlier prediction of 139 seats for the conservatives.

[Peter Triggs]

joncha,

Thanks for the link to the Election Prediction Project. Neville's 8000 majority seems to be a pretty big hurdle for the Conservative, Mike Richards, to overcome but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he did it. For sure, I expect it to be very close.

I wonder what the effect of this long campaign has been, especially with it being such a mild winter. The Liberals were looking far stronger a few weeks ago than they are now. It's a no-brainer that they're wishing that the voting could have taken place then.

[notyoueither]

vroom, vroom!

[notyoueither]

https://www.democracyissexy.ca

[Asher]

Only masochists will vote in this election.

[notyoueither]

Some might say that only masochists won't vote.

[Asher]

It's choosing your own poison.

Elections Canada thinks I live in Ontario still.

[notyoueither]

Show up with your drivers licence.

[Asher]

To do what? Vote?

No no...

[notyoueither]

It sure will be funny when the parties figure out who the less than 50% of electors actually elect them are, and ignore the rest.

Or maybe not...

[Asher]

I've already discussed the candidates in my riding. They're all losers in different ways. They all suck. All their parties suck.

Suckage is high.

If any one of them takes power, we will be worse off for it. I don't know which is worst yet.

[notyoueither]

Write 'none of the above' on the ballot. Register your discontent.

[Asher]

Will you pay me the gas money to drive to the polling station?

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
And for the first time, the number of Liberal supporters who believe the Conservatives will win, is greater then the number supporting their own party. Conservatives lead in the GTA 37-36, but their support softens outside, to 6 points from 14 up.

Quebec numbers are about the same, Conservatives at 28 percent now, and creeping up, and the BC numbers are at 42 percent, with the Liberals actually polling higher then they did in the previous election.

It's amusing to see you so breathless about the whole thing Ben. I can't say I've followed the campaign, since it just seems to be even more contrived than usual.

The Liberals have been in power for about as long as they can expect, so it's only natural that a lot of people are voting for a change (although why they would want to change when things are going so well is beyond me - the whole adscam thing is, like all such scandals, small beer). That the Liberals have been in power this long is testament to the incompetence and lack of appeal among the alternatives.

The problem is that Canada doesn't have a viable opposition party. Even if the Conservatives manage to scrape a majority (which seems unlikely), watch for buyer's remorse in the next few months, because most Canadians are social moderates and not social conservatives, and Harper will have to throw some bones to his base, even if it is only picking on the poor old homos.

Now if the Conservatives had been smart and formed their new party around the ideology of the old PC party instead of the reform whackos, they would have won years ago. When Quebec recovers from its snit fit with the Liberals, the Tories can again fade into political oblivion.

Someone should really convert Duceppe to federalism. I wish I had a dollar for every person I know who thinks he's the only one of them with brains. I'd vote for him.