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  • The Liberals' Worst Nightmare

    A moderate, centrist NDP after a meltdown in Liberal support.


    NDP will be Commons' voice of moderation: Layton
    Updated Tue. Jan. 17 2006 12:24 PM ET

    CTV.ca News Staff

    A minority Conservative government led by a tax-slashing Stephen Harper should be counterbalanced by the moderate and people-friendly NDP, leader Jack Layton told a crowd at the Toronto Board of Trade Tuesday morning.

    Layton painted his party as one of the middle ground, saying New Democrats are far from the extremes of the Conservatives, who would eliminate social programs, and the Liberals, who are falling apart at the seams.

    Layton also repeated his call, first made yesterday, for Liberal voters to just give him one chance, saying Liberal Leader Paul Martin needs a "time out" after years of unfulfilled election promises.

    "The Martin Liberals said they would fix the democratic deficit and, instead, they run a tightly-centralized, patronage and command-controlled machine," Layton said.

    "They said they would deliver a national child care program… They first said it in 1993, but they only began to deliver on it when they lost their majority. They said they would fix health care for a generation… and they have been saying that for five straight elections."

    At the campaign stop, Layton said he would stand up for health care, the Kyoto Accord and same-sex marriage and would fight against Canadian involvement in American wars.

    "We will not stand by and watch the positive advances of Canadians be undone," he said.

    Members of the Board of Trade gave Layton a warm welcome and departure, including a standing ovation following his speech.

    While the NDP has not traditionally been associated with Bay Street dealmakers, Layton's party has worked to present itself as a fiscally competent alternative to the Liberals and Conservatives.

    Paul Summerville, former chief economist of the Royal Bank's investment arm, is running in downtown Toronto's St. Paul's riding, and was chosen to unveil the party's tax platform in December.

    The NDP has a chance to gain more Toronto seats in Monday's election, where it currently holds only one of 23 -- Layton's own in Toronto-Danforth.

    When asked to respond to Layton's warning shot, Harper said during a campaign stop in Quebec that he's prepared to work with any party in the next Parliament.

    "If the people of Canada gave us a minority government, in a situation where we have to work with other parties, we'll work with other parties," he said Tuesday morning. "We'll stay faithful to the things we ask the people to give us a mandate on, and we'll seek to work with other parties on an issue by issue basis."

    He added: "I think, frankly, there'll be pressure on all parties to make Parliament successful."


    However, I don't think Layton is near that position yet, but if his gambit wins seats, and he moves to the centre (not just talks about it) the Liberals could have a tough road to rebuild.
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    • Pick the carcass.

      I'm sure a few folks here wouldn't mind the complete destruction of the Liberal party.

      That being said, even given the favourable polls, the Conservatives have a ways to go in order to secure a majority.

      They have made huge strides, but I'm not so sure they are quite over the hump.
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      • Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
        Pick the carcass.

        I'm sure a few folks here wouldn't mind the complete destruction of the Liberal party.
        Only people blind to the implications of a harsh fate for the Tories in the early 90's.

        The Liberals grew to feel entitled only in the absense of any force capable of making them accountable. I don't wish to trade our corrupt Liberals in for Tories who could become equally or more corrupt and arrogant if they got their turn at 4 consecutive mandates.

        That being said, even given the favourable polls, the Conservatives have a ways to go in order to secure a majority.

        They have made huge strides, but I'm not so sure they are quite over the hump.
        I know well the desire to keep expectations low (one avoids disappointment) but by now the dimensions of the Liberal collapse have to be apparent.
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        • The interesting bit is the opportunity presented to Layton and the NDP.
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          • In '93 a lot of Tories stayed home. The results of an unending barrage of corruption in the media (sound familiar?) and a poor campaign with ads that angered Canadians at the authors, the Tories (sound familiar?) led to a lot of Tories just not going out to vote.

            Martin is now faced with a quater of his supporters thinking a Tory majority would be a good thing, on top of a frothing at the mouth opposition vote intent on punishing the Liberals.

            I'm not saying 2 seats (there's no Reform to kill them in traditional strongholds, unless Jack really takes off) but this has all the makings of South of 40.
            Last edited by notyoueither; January 18, 2006, 00:22.
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            • OK. My predictions...

              BQ 60
              Liberal 33
              NDP 40
              Conservative 175

              A comfortable majority. I've been looking for the slippage, but now Martin and Layton have fallen on each other in the quest for votes. The NDP is going to win that fight, and Harper certainly isn't going to lose.
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              • Wow. I know the Liberals have collapsed, but I can't really see them dropping much below 90.

                Let's call it:

                BQ 58
                Lib 85
                NDP 40
                Con 125

                Any more Conservative seats will likely come out of the NDP total, not the Liberals. Possible, but I see the NDP numbers holding steady.
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                • I'm thinking that outside of the GTA no Liberal riding is safe, and not even all of them in the GTA. The NDP is going to take several, and the Tories might even take one.

                  National party at ~27% with 25% of those thinking the oppo in majority is a good idea is a recipe for a route.
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                  • I believe the 25% is of traditional Liberal supporters, not those with voting intention Liberal this time.

                    I doubt many of those 25% are still left in the 27%
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                    • I don't. So we can post different predictions.
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                      • I've been wondering about the sleeze affect on Liberal voters for some time. I've wondered how many Liberals would stay at home if they don't go out and vote for someone else out of spite.

                        You shouldn't underestimate this factor when a government becomes a liability to it's own party. Putting off change can be more harmful than accepting or welcoming it.
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                        • Bloc numbers are highly volatile. Quebec is turning into another BC where some ridings will see a genuine contest between 3 candidates. That should be exciting.
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                          • "A new poll shows the Tories well ahead in the horse race toward Jan. 23, with 42 per cent saying they would support the Conservatives, 24 per cent the Liberals and 17 per cent the NDP. The survey, taken Jan. 14-16, polled 1,500 people and is accurate to within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20."



                            The Liberals have screwed up big time to drive that many people to the Conservative side.



                            " A Decima Research poll, conducted Jan. 12-15 for CP, put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals.The NDP stood at 18 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 11."

                            "An SES survey, conducted Jan. 14-16 for the Canadian Public Access Channel, also put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support nationally, but gave the Liberals 30 per cent."

                            Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. London Free Press offers information on latest national and international events & more.
                            Last edited by Tingkai; January 18, 2006, 05:51.
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                            • Originally posted by notyoueither
                              I've wondered how many Liberals would stay at home if they don't go out and vote for someone else out of spite.
                              And what affect does that have on the polling numbers?

                              If former Liberal voters are telling pollsters that they will vote Conservative, but instead stay at home, will that lower the results for Conservatives or increase it?
                              Golfing since 67

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                              • I know well the desire to keep expectations low (one avoids disappointment) but by now the dimensions of the Liberal collapse have to be apparent.
                                It's not the overall poll numbers, but the structure that worries me. Even at 28%, the seats the Conservatives win in Quebec, are all the Montreal seats that the Liberals win, which assumes that a massive number of Liberals switch over.

                                If they get over the 30's I think that's a more reasonable projection for a majority government.

                                I'm also worried about the Ontario numbers. They do not have as much of a lead in Ontario as I would like to see, and small swings there translate into huge swings in overall support. If they were statistically leading in Ontario, I'd say, sure say they have a majority, say 5% over the Liberals.

                                I won't deny they are close, have to see the later polls to see whether they can get those last few hurdles.
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