CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Garth Vader]

I thought this was an interesting read on election stuff

http://www.bopnews.com/archives/005800.html

[Ben Kenobi]

So according to your division scheme the CHP magically moved from being a fringe right party to being the NDP of the right the day that the Cons and Reform merged?

Not at all.

I don't see why their policies are any more outrageous and far right then the policies of the NDP are far left. This is why I think if we are looking at the political spectrum, we see that the two parties are mirrors to each other.

The merger of the Reform and the Progressive Conservatives was a merger of a right wing party and one that was, if anything, centre left.

[Ben Kenobi]

Gee, all we have to do to assign places on the political spectrum is to count parties! It has nothing to do with popular opinion.

Yes, a position on the political spectrum is independent of popular opinion. For example, don't you always assert that Canada is generally a left-leaning country?

If we accepted your definition, that popular opinion always resides in the centre, and thus the governing party is always in the centre, then that would contradict the notion that Canada is generally left leaning.

If you look at the policies of the CHP, they are about as far to the right as the NDP is to the left. Since Canada leans left, we would not expect a right wing party to garner as many votes as the NDP.

[Fake Boris]

Wake up Ben. The NDP is not even more leftist than many European governments. The CHP consists of right-wing religious whackos that would stand no chance of winning an election in ANY country.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Not at all.

I don't see why their policies are any more outrageous and far right then the policies of the NDP are far left. This is why I think if we are looking at the political spectrum, we see that the two parties are mirrors to each other

The NDP's policies are supported by 15% of the electorate. That makes them slightly radical, but within the mainstream.

The CHP has the support of 0.5% of the population. This puts them in a league with the other ideological crazies.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Yes, a position on the political spectrum is independent of popular opinion. For example, don't you always assert that Canada is generally a left-leaning country?

a) Not particularly, if you're considering the First World as a bloc

b) Doesn't matter. My political spectrum is defined differently for each country

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't see why their policies are any more outrageous and far right then the policies of the NDP are far left

That's because you're an ideological nutjob yourself, as am I. Unfortunately, unlike myself you have long demonstrated the inability to set your ideological prejudices aside when studying political matters.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


a) Not particularly, if you're considering the First World as a bloc

b) Doesn't matter. My political spectrum is defined differently for each country

I tend to look at political spectrums on a country basis as well. Compared to the US main parties, all our parties are to the left but compared to Sweden they look pretty much to the right. I think that people tend to look at the right-left stuff from their own perspective.

Typically in Canada the Conservatives have occupied what I would call the centre-right. While the Liberals have tried to occupy the dead centre and spread as far right and left as they can. The NDP is the voice of the moderate left. Greens, CHP etc-- I haven't followed enough to place.

In all these parties there is overlap depending on the issue so in the end its just a generality.

[Sava]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Martin?

No. It wasn't Martin. I know him.

I don't know what office she was campaigning for. It was an ad against Harper. It ran during an Ottawa Senators game a few days ago... I think during the game against Edmonton.

All I know about her is she's kind of overweight (not obese), ugly, dark hair, and I think she's from the Liberal party. The ad was anti-Harper. And like I said, at the end of the ad, she was wearing this big fur coat that was basically a Canadian flag.

[Ben Kenobi]

The NDP is not even more leftist than many European governments. The CHP consists of right-wing religious whackos that would stand no chance of winning an election in ANY country.

If the communists can win, I can't see why the CHP couldn't.

No surprise to see folks saying that just because a party does not grab a large amount of support, means that they are nutjobs.

As for the NDP being more or less leftist then many of the Euros, neither are the communists for that matter.

And it's particularly humourous to say that no party as far right as the CHP could get elected, particularly after the success of the fascists in Europe.

[Ben Kenobi]

Unfortunately, unlike myself you have long demonstrated the inability to set your ideological prejudices aside when studying political matters.

Right, I can see that.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


If the communists can win, I can't see why the CHP couldn't.

No surprise to see folks saying that just because a party does not grab a large amount of support, means that they are nutjobs.

If you hadn't noticed, I called myself a nutjob too.

They're on the fringes of the Canadian political spectrum. So am I.

The difference is that I'm right and they're wrong.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
Why would we care about an elected Senate? It's just a mini House of Lords anyway.

I'm not even sure he can do that and make it stick.

Harper has said he will not appoint any senator who is not elected, or something like that, and he is free to do so, BUT...

There is a snippet of the Constitution that puts change to 'the method of appointment' of senators in the category of needing full blown, cross country (7 provinces with 50%+ of the population) approval.

He might be thinking the same clause 44 that came up earlier. Parliament could compel the PM to only confirm elections as that would be an amendment that only effects Parliament and the executive, but I'd bet it goes to court.

Other than that? We certainly can't abolish it. The next best thing is that it be effective in using the powers that it neglects due to lack of mandate.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by dejon
I haven't read or participated in this thread because I assume it's the same as the major parties - the same old stuff/arguments.

However, after a recent conversation with someone, I thought I should at least let my choice be known, lest anyone think my choice might be something else, and to make my choice public.

My choice is one still being mostly drowned out by the establishment and political inertia, but more and more people are realizing that they only perpetual the cycle of idiocy in government by electing the major parties.

Yes, if you haven't already guessed it by now - I will vote Green. (3rd time now)

Keep plugging.

If this were 1993 you'd likely be sending several MPs to Ottawa. Once the Greens get there, they will likely stick.

[notyoueither]

The Fat Lady is Tuning Up

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060116/elxn_poll_060116/20060117?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

55% of Canadians OK with Tory majority: poll
Updated Tue. Jan. 17 2006 9:36 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

A new poll finds that more than half of Canadians think a Conservative majority government would be a good thing for the country and surprisingly one-in-four traditional Liberals supporters feel the same way.

The poll, which was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by the Strategic Counsel on Jan. 14 and 15, found that 55 per cent of voters believe electing a Conservative majority government would be a healthy outcome for the country (in per cent; total good/ total bad / do-not-know, not applicable, refused to answer):

Quebec: 64-30-6
West: 59-28-13
Canada: 55-35-10
Rest of Canada: 51-37-12
Ontario: 45-45-10
"What's interesting is how strong it is in the province of Quebec," pollster Tim Woolstencroft told CTV.ca on Monday.

Of those polled in the province, 64 per cent said they felt a Conservative majority would be good for the nation, which is even higher than in the West where 59 per cent of voters like the idea. Only in the Liberal stronghold of Ontario, does a minority, 45 per cent, of voters believe a Conservative majority would be a good idea.

"Ontarians are saying, 'Whoa, we're still not sure'," Woolstencroft said.

On a national level, it comes as no surprise that 87 per cent of Conservatives believe a Tory majority would be a good idea.

In what could signal Tory gains for Quebec, 60 per cent of Bloc voters appear unafraid of Conservative majority.

Strategic Counsel Chairman Allan Gregg believes this means Bloc supporters are open to being courted by Harper.

The pollster said the desires of Quebec nationalists align with some of Harper's policies, which include policies such as delivering more taxing power to provincial governments.

In what comes as another surprising twist, 30 per cent of NDP supporters say a Tory majority would be a good thing, while 26 per cent of voters who have parked their support with the Liberals feel the same way.

Overall, the prospect of a Conservative majority government "isn't causing a lot of people to get uncomfortable," Woolstencroft said.

On issues of impressions and trust, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper continues to maintain an advantage over Liberal Leader Paul Martin.

Support numbers

The national support numbers are based on tracking polling. The sampling was done on January 12, 14 and 15.

Nationally, the Conservatives are maintaining the 40-27 lead over the Liberals that emerged in a poll released Sunday night. The other parties' national support remained the same (NDP, 16 per cent; Bloc Quebecois, 11 per cent; Greens, 6 per cent).

In Canada outside Quebec, the Tories lead the Liberals 44-30.

There has been some slight movement in Quebec (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 45 per cent (+2)
Conservatives: 27 per cent (+1)
Liberals: 17 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 8 per cent (-1)
Greens: 3 per cent (-2)
In Ontario, the race has tightened up slightly (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 38 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 20 per cent (+1)
Greens: 8 per cent (unchanged)
In the Greater Toronto Area, which includes the 416 and 905 area codes, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Liberals: 36 per cent (-4)
NDP: 19 per cent (+3)
Greens: 8 per cent (+1)
To show how much the Liberals have fallen, they were at 50 per cent support in the GTA in pre-Christmas polls and captured 55 per cent support there in the 2004 election.

In southwestern and eastern Ontario (the 519 and 613 area codes), the Conservatives still hold a clear lead, but it's shrunk somewhat (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 38 per cent (-4)
Liberals: 32 per cent (+4)
NDP: 21 per cent (+1)
Greens: 9 per cent (unchanged)
On the Prairies, there has been no significant movement. The Tories hold a 43-point lead over the Liberals.

There is no significant movement from Sunday's poll in B.C.'s numbers, where the Tories hold a 42-31 lead.

Technical notes

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 12, 14 and 15.

For the tracking poll, the sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows for the popularity and momentum questions:

Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
Quebec: 370 (5.1)
Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
Ontario: 568 (4.1)
GTA (416/905): 236 (6.4)
Outside GTA: 332 (5.4)
Prairies: 246 (6.3)
British Columbia: 200 (7.0 per cent)
Here are sample sizes for the Jan. 14-15 polling (margin of error in brackets):

Canada: 1,000 (3.1)
Quebec: 247 (6.3)
Rest of Canada: 753 (3.6)
Ontario: 379 (5.0)
West: 297 (5.7)
Q. (party support) If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Q. (party support) In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Q. (leader impressions) Generally speaking, would you say your overall impression of (READ AND ROTATE) is very favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable?

Q. (trust) Which one would you trust most to be the Prime Minister of Canada?

Q. (Tory majority) If a Conservative majority government is elected would it be very good, good, bad or very bad for the country?

To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.

Just another poll, but one with a potentially devastating twist for Martin.