CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
BTW Richelieu I didn't know you were that conservative. I never took you for a liberal, but it really surprises me that you would get involved with the Tories.

I'm pretty much dead centre overall but i swing a bit depending on the issues.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Flubber
... This will be just enough to keep the Conservatives a good 10 seats from the majority...

This is exactly what one of my cousins - an independentist - told me he wanted to see happen just this weekend. He'd like to see what Harper would try to do but doesn't want to commit to a majority Conservative govmt.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Richelieu


This is exactly what one of my cousins - an independentist - told me he wanted to see happen just this weekend. He'd like to see what Harper would try to do but doesn't want to commit to a majority Conservative govmt.

It probably is the best outcome. Enough to punish the Liberals, but enough of a restraint to ensure that the Conservatives have to stay close to the centre.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kontiki


It probably is the best outcome. Enough to punish the Liberals, but enough of a restraint to ensure that the Conservatives have to stay close to the centre.

While I see the logic behind the sentiment, so you REALLY think a small conservative majority would go hog-wild to the right?? Any such majority would have to contain a large number of Ontario MPs with a sprinkling from Atlantic Canada. These folks tend to be moderates, similar to the PCs of old.

Considering Harper's general talk about not enforcing party discipline so much, I find it would stretch belief to think he would try to push through anything too radical. He would not want to face major dissent risking having 30-50 of his own MPs defy him

[Ben Kenobi]

The Conservative party has pledged to allow members a free vote, and Harper has always been easier on party discipline, then has Martin or the Liberals.

I don't see why they can't be effective in parliament as a majority, especially considering that they stand at 40% in the latest poll.

When I run the regional numbers, I get

165 CON
63 BQ
55 LIB
22 NDP

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%2012%202006E.pdf

with the Liberals getting no seats in Quebec. Their numbers in Quebec are 28%, with 19% for the Liberals and 45% for the BQ. If those numbers hold, and assuming each riding has an equal distribution, the Liberals get shut out.

I still have to look at it riding by riding.

[Kontiki]

I doubt a small majority would go too far to the right, but a minority ensures they don't. There are still too many social right-wingers in the Conservative party grassroots for my liking.

I may have actually voted Conservative this election (definitely would have voted old PC), but both the NDP and Liberal candidates (and/or their flunkys) have been around my place a couple of times handing out literature and chatting people up - I would even know who the Conservative candidate is without looking it up. I find it difficult to vote for a candidate who doesn't seem to be making much of an effort. Not that it's likely the Conservative has a chance in my riding - it's typically a Liberal/NDP shootout (Tony Ianno/Olivia Chow).

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The Conservative party has pledged to allow members a free vote, and Harper has always been easier on party discipline, then has Martin or the Liberals.

I don't see why they can't be effective in parliament as a majority, especially considering that they stand at 40% in the latest poll.

When I run the regional numbers, I get

165 CON
63 BQ
55 LIB
22 NDP

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%2012%202006E.pdf

with the Liberals getting no seats in Quebec. Their numbers in Quebec are 28%, with 19% for the Liberals and 45% for the BQ. If those numbers hold, and assuming each riding has an equal distribution, the Liberals get shut out.

I still have to look at it riding by riding.

That just seems too optimistic and totally ignores candidate effect. I'm seeing predictions in the 130s for the Cons that I find very credible though


Oh and I am now predicting the Conservatives will take both the Avalon and Bonavista ridings in NL. The Liberals made a major gaffe in Bonavista by announcing the planned reopening of the Gander weather office with something like 75 jobs. Since the Liberals closed the same office just over two years ago, this announcement went over like a lead balloon. Editorials have denounced it as the worst form of vote-buying.

[Flubber]

Take a look at this site which seems to be doing what you are doing Ben

http://info.wlu.ca/lispop/lispop.htm

The only thing I find surprising about their results is that everything stays status quo in Atlantic Canada, BC and the prairies. Really the only major thing is a Conservative breakthrough in Ontario

[Ben Kenobi]

That just seems too optimistic and totally ignores candidate effect. I'm seeing predictions in the 130s for the Cons that I find very credible though

Yeah, it's just quick and dirty. I'd have to start sifting through it all riding by riding to see how the breakdown works out. I will do that next time they do a poll that includes British Columbia.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Yeah, it's just quick and dirty. I'd have to start sifting through it all riding by riding to see how the breakdown works out. I will do that next time they do a poll that includes British Columbia.

But you know . . . the link I posted said 139 for the conservatives. THat seems so very close to 154 but IMHO it gets incrementally harder as we start getting into traditionally stauncher Liberal districts or situations with well-respected and popular incumbents

[Ben Kenobi]

I would even know who the Conservative candidate is without looking it up. I find it difficult to vote for a candidate who doesn't seem to be making much of an effort. Not that it's likely the Conservative has a chance in my riding - it's typically a Liberal/NDP shootout (Tony Ianno/Olivia Chow).

Yep, that's what you get for living in the GTA.

[Ben Kenobi]

That seems so very close to 154 but IMHO it gets incrementally harder as we start getting into traditionally stauncher Liberal districts or situations with well-respected and popular incumbents

BC is one of the wildcards in this regard, I picked BC conservatively with respect to my earlier predictions, since I don't see a Tory surge as we see elsewhere.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


BC is one of the wildcards in this regard, I picked BC conservatively with respect to my earlier predictions, since I don't see a Tory surge as we see elsewhere.

The model I linked predicts BC will stay the same numbers wise as the previous election. That might obscure a great deal of volitility but it is possible that a number of seats will change hands but the end result will be close to status quo when it comes to number of seats province-wide

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Yep, that's what you get for living in the GTA.

What - Conservatives who don't even try?

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, in order to secure a majority, here are the types of seats the Conservatives need to pick up, over and above my earlier prediction.

Some of these are already marginals, others may become marginal over the next few days. Harper needs to spend some time in two areas - British Columbia and Ontario.

1. Charlottetown
2. Madawaska-Restigouche
3. Miramichi
4.Burnaby New Westminster
5.Newton-North Delta
6.Fleetwood-Pt Kells
7.Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
8.Burnaby Douglas
9. St. Paul's
10. Oakville
11. Bramalea-Gore-Malton
12. Guelph
13. Kitchener-Centre
14. Kitchener-Waterloo
15.St. Boniface
16.Winnipeg South
17.Winnipeg South Centre