CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Asher
I've already discussed the candidates in my riding. They're all losers in different ways. They all suck. All their parties suck.

Suckage is high.

If any one of them takes power, we will be worse off for it. I don't know which is worst yet.

Why aren't you running?

[Tingkai]

Asher for PM!

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Tingkai
Asher for PM!

Asher, Asher: he's our man!
Kick Harper's ass: yes he can!

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
It's choosing your own poison.

Elections Canada thinks I live in Ontario still.

Is this surprising?? I doubt you have filed anything federally in the meantime that would tell them otherwise and you probably were in Ontario last time they revised the voters list

[Flubber]

[SIZE=1] the whole adscam thing is, like all such scandals, small beer). .

You accept scandals as par for the course. I don't . I acknowledge the difficulty in trying to prevent them but I think we should always keep trying.

Its like crime generally. Will it ever be eliminated? Not that I can ever forsee . . . But that doesn't mean I want to reward the thieves with the keys to my bank once again

[Asher]

Originally posted by Flubber
Is this surprising?? I doubt you have filed anything federally in the meantime that would tell them otherwise and you probably were in Ontario last time they revised the voters list

Revenue Canada sent tax stuff to my house in Calgary. I'm just not sure anymore.

I got my voter card mailed to me, but it was sent to the Ontario place and forwarded by Canada Post.

Why aren't you running?

I'm too proud a man to lower myself to politics...

I should run as an independent soft libertarian in Calgary West (university's riding).

That way I could maybe steal votes from Rob Anders...http://www.voteoutanders.com

[Flinx]

Things are becoming very interesting. I heard on the radio this morning that pollsters are finding that the number of undecided voters is increasing and looking at the raw unpublished data here at The Strategic Counsel I can confirm that. The result on Tuesday morning could well depend on who turns out to vote on Monday. The wide seat prediction ranges that Flubber summarised above are not unexpected given the volatility being suggested by recent poll numbers.

It is not beyond Ontario voters to pull another big switch like they did last time in 2004.

[Ben Kenobi]

I've heard rumours that they've been covering up the polls showing the Conservatives up by 18 percent or so. If that's true, I'm not surprised this morning when I see the one reported in the paper showing they are up by 5 percent nationally.

We shall see what happens in Ontario. The conservatives are going to do better, but how much better will determine everything else.

[joncha]

Who is "they"? The liberal media?

[Ben Kenobi]

The same folks who decided that it was inappropriate to release a poll showing the Conservatives at 40% before the debates.

[joncha]

Links to some of the various prediction models out there:

UBC Election Stockmarket
LISPOP (Laurier) Seat Projection
Election Prediction Project
democraticSPACE.com National Seat Projection

It seems like the picture is becoming clearer:

		UBC	LISPOP	EPP*	Dem
Con		133	142	 99	126
Lib		 92	 77	 79	 93
BQ		 53	 60	 51	 59
NDP		 29	 29	 18	 29
Oth		  1	  0	  0	  1

*61 seats listed as "too close to call"

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The same folks who decided that it was inappropriate to release a poll showing the Conservatives at 40% before the debates.

Who was this?

Do you have any (non-crackpot) links back it up, or is this just general paranoia?

[Tingkai]

Obviously, he's talking about the UN.

[notyoueither]

Recent polls are all over the place.

Yesterday the Tories were at 42% to Liberal 26 or 27% on ctv.ca (SC poll, I think).

Today there is no poll posted, but the 'discussion' is of a '5 point gap'.

Forget those polls. Polling is not overly reliable anymore, for reasons you can take up with George Gallop. Although looking at the weight of many polls is interesting, figuring out the voters intent in a last week where the campaign goes wild is like trying to keep track of a particular animal in a pirana fight.

The polls that matter are in 4 days. The Liberals are down, but not out. The Tories could govern, but how effectively without a majority?

Someone wished interesting times on us, and we have them.

[joncha]

Oh those crazy Liberals.

Candidate considers lawsuit over false sexual assault allegation
Last Updated Thu, 19 Jan 2006 22:32:29 EST
CBC News

A Tory candidate in Saskatoon is considering legal action after someone from the campaign office of his Liberal opponent called a live cable TV show and falsely accused the Conservative of sexual assault.

Liberal candidate Chris Axworthy has apologized to Conservative incumbent Maurice Vellacott for the call. He conceded the call was made from his office but denied he had anything to do with it.

He believes someone not connected to his campaign sneaked in and made the call.

"We'll find out who it was if we can and we'll make sure that person doesn't participate again," Axworthy said.

Vellacott and Axworthy were participating in an all-candidates debate on a cable TV show Tuesday night that was taking calls from viewers.

One caller phoned and asked Vellacott if he had ever been removed from a local church because he was charged with sexually assaulting his secretary. The caller was cut off by the station.

"Absolutely not, that would be a lie," Vellacott responded. "You'd want to be careful about that kind of thing when it's slanderous and defamatory."

Vellacott was a pastor before being elected as an MP in 1997, but maintains that he has never worked at North Park and has never been accused of sexual assault.

Caller ID traced the phone number back to the Axworthy's campaign office.

Axworthy, a former Saskatchewan justice minister, issued a statement Thursday afternoon apologizing and called the sex assault allegation "deplorable."

"In as much as it appears that our phones were misused and that the comments were hurtful to Mr. Vellacott, I offer my heartfelt apologies," Axworthy said in the release.

"As anyone who has known my record in public life will attest, I do not campaign in this fashion or condone this type of conduct."

Liberal candidate concedes defeat in Quebec, then backtracks
Last Updated Thu, 19 Jan 2006 21:13:44 EST
CBC News

A Liberal candidate who conceded defeat in Quebec and urged his supporters to throw their support behind the Tories has apparently changed his mind and says he's still in the race.

Gilles Savard, the Liberal candidate for the riding of Jonquiere-Alma, told a local radio station Thursday that polls show he has only five per cent support and he has no chance of winning.

He said he was throwing his support behind the Conservative candidate in the riding, Jean-Pierre Blackburn, to stave off a Bloc Québécois victory. The seat is currently held by the Bloc.

"It's certain that tomorrow I won't be the member here," said Savard. "That said, in my mind I'm sure that Mr. Blackburn should be the next member, that's how I see it."

But in a news release issued by the Liberal Pary Thursday night, Savard "clarified" his comments.

"I do not concede victory to any of my adversaries before the actual results of the election are known," Savard was quoted as saying.

He invited "all Liberal voters" to continue backing him. He added that, whatever they do, they should "support candidates with federalist convictions, keeping Canada's best interests at heart."

In the 2004 election, Bloc candidate Sebastien Gagnon won the riding by more than 11,000 votes over his closest rival, Liberal Daniel Giguere.