CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Ben Kenobi]

BQ 58
Lib 85
NDP 40
Con 125

Any more Conservative seats will likely come out of the NDP total, not the Liberals. Possible, but I see the NDP numbers holding steady.

40 seats for the NDP? I'm not sure how that prediction works on a seat by seat basis.

[Krill]

Um, when is the election? 26th?

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


40 seats for the NDP? I'm not sure how that prediction works on a seat by seat basis.

I've gone through it seat by seat, and it's very possible. The absolute worst they can do is 25 or so, and they could push 50 if the stars align just right for them.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Krill
Um, when is the election? 26th?

January 23rd.

[Ben Kenobi]

Not that far fetched, but I only see 13 safe NDP seats, and I don't think you can expect them to win every tight race they are in. Maybe 26 seats for the NDP I can see, but not 40.

NDP SAFE (13)

VANCOUVER EAST
BC SOUTHERN INTERIOR
NANAIMO COWICHAN
ELMWOOD TRANSCONA
WINNIPEG CENTRE
WINNIPEG NORTH
TORONTO DANFORTH
HAMILTON CENTRE
SAULT STE MARIE
TIMMINS-JAMES BAY
ACADIE-BATHURST
HALIFAX
SACKVILLE-EASTERN SHORE

NDP MARGINAL (27)

Burnaby Douglas
Burnaby New Westminster
Surrey North
Skeena Bulkley Valley
Regina Qu'Appelle
Victoria
Vancouver Island North
Saanich Gulf Islands
Nanaimo-Alberni
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Newton-North Delta
Vancouver Kingsway
Churchill
Beaches-East York
Parkdale-High Park
Trinity-Spadina
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
Ottawa Centre
Oshawa
Kenora
Nickel Belt
Nipissing-Timiscaming
Madawaska-Restigouche
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Western Arctic

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on an internet based poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid between Jan 13 and Jan 15 (n=8256)

Canada ......74 136 36 62  0
BC ...........7  19 10  0  0
AB............0  28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4  19  5  0  0
ON...........38  51 17  0  0
QC............3  10  0 62  0
NB NS PE NL..19   9  4  0  0

...and yes I think the Liberals will get more than 3 seats in Quebec.

Feel free to all you like.

[joncha]

Bloc over Tories: Hargrove

Wednesday, January 18, 2006 Posted at 11:32 AM EST

Canadian Press

STRATHROY, ONT. — Labour leader Buzz Hargrove says Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's attitude toward the provinces is essentially a separatist approach.
"If you devolve all the powers to the provinces, what do you have left?" Mr. Hargrove said as he campaigned alongside Paul Martin. "His view of the country is a separatist view,"
But Mr. Hargrove also said Quebec voters should choose the Bloc over the Conservatives, who have shown unexpected strength in Quebec in recent polls..
"I would urge them to stop Stephen Harper in any way they can."
Mr. Hargrove, head of the Canadian Auto Workers union, has endorsed the Liberals, a switch from the traditional union support for the NDP.
In Toronto, Mr. Harper called Hargrove's comments "shocking."
"Mr. Hargrove, who is one of Mr. Martin's key campaign supporters, is now urging people to vote for the Bloc and I wonder what Mr. Martin thinks of that," Mr. Harper said.
"I think Mr. Martin should distance himself from Mr. Hargrove's comments. I don't think any federalist leader should be urging people to vote for the Bloc."
Mr. Harper said Mr. Hargrove's comments show a partisanship that puts the interests of the Liberals above those of the country.
The labour leader said he's not happy with the way NDP Leader Jack Layton has run his campaign.
"Jack has made a couple of decisions in this campaign that didn't sit with me very well but he has a right to do that," Mr. Hargrove said. "He's the leader of the party."
He said Mr. Layton has spent too much time criticizing Mr. Martin's government, "as if undermining Liberals was going to strengthen the NDP."
"I think that was a short-term view of the values of Canada."
Mr. Hargrove was with Mr. Martin in a southwestern Ontario restaurant as the Liberal leader wooed NDP votes.
With polls suggesting a Tory lead just days before Monday's election, Martin said it's time for progressive voters to unite to stop the Tories.
He said Harper's agenda is out of step with Canadian values.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060118.wmartin0118/BNStory/specialDecision2006/

What a tool. It sure puts his call for NDP supporters to vote Liberal into perspective, though.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2006-01-16GMCTV%20Jan%2012,14,15%20Poll(Jan16).pdf

I found the poll NYE referred to, some interesting numbers

Conservatives have been holding at about +4,+5% in Ontario.

[Ben Kenobi]

And for the first time, the number of Liberal supporters who believe the Conservatives will win, is greater then the number supporting their own party. Conservatives lead in the GTA 37-36, but their support softens outside, to 6 points from 14 up.

Quebec numbers are about the same, Conservatives at 28 percent now, and creeping up, and the BC numbers are at 42 percent, with the Liberals actually polling higher then they did in the previous election.

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
As for the NDP being more or less leftist then many of the Euros, neither are the communists for that matter.

WOW

And it's particularly humourous to say that no party as far right as the CHP could get elected, particularly after the success of the fascists in Europe.

The retarded vote is already going to the Tories.

[Fake Boris]

It's pathetic to see Martin courting the progressist vote, when everyone knows where he stands in private on Kyoto.

What a lamer.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Bosh
The Conservatives don't stand much of a chance in London anyway, do the?

There are 4 ridings here.

Despite Ben's prediction local polls have NDP leading in London-Fanshawe.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm thinking that outside of the GTA no Liberal riding is safe, and not even all of them in the GTA. The NDP is going to take several, and the Tories might even take one.

There are two in Newfoundland that have been pretty safe.

Labrador and Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte each were places the Liberals got 62% of the vote last time out. If the Libs are losing those types of places ouch ouch ouch

[Flubber]

I tend to find the numbers created here http://info.wlu.ca/lispop/lispop.htm to be a reasonable estimate of where things are




Liberal Party 77
Conservative Party 142
New Democratic Party 29
Bloc Quebecois 60

Their call by region (lib,cons,NDP bloc)

Atlantic 18 11 3 --

Quebec 9 6 -- 60

Ontario 36 57 13 --

Man./Sask/Terr 6 20 5 --

Alberta -- 28 -- --

British Columbia 8 20 8 --

[joncha]

They seem reasonable to me too.