CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

Here are my seat predictions based solely on a poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid between Jan 17 and Jan 19 (n=2000) for CanWest Global

Canada ......65 143 41 59  0
BC ...........5  18 13  0  0
AB............0  28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4  20  4  0  0
ON...........33  52 21  0  0
QC............3  13  0 59  0
NB NS PE NL..17  12  3  0  0

...and yes I think the Liberals will get more than 3 seats in Quebec.

Feel free to all you like.

[Asher]

How many o you need for a majority again?

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

Here are my seat predictions based solely on a poll conducted by EKOS between Jan 16 and Jan 19 (n=3251) for La Presse and The Toronto Star

Canada ......78 130 38 62  0
BC ...........9  18  9  0  0
AB............0  28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4  20  4  0  0
ON...........39  45 22  0  0
QC............3  10  0 62  0
NB NS PE NL..20   9  3  0  0

...and yes I think the Liberals will get more than 3 seats in Quebec.

Feel free to all you like.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Asher
How many o you need for a majority again?

50%+1 of 308 = 155

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

I reworked my model so I could use the SES poll data
Here are my seat predictions based solely on a poll conducted by SES Research between Jan 18 and Jan 20 (n=1200) for CPAC

Canada ......92 130 29 57  0
BC AB SK MB..15  62 15  0  0
ON...........54  43  9  0  0
QC............5  13  0 57  0
NB NS PE NL..15  12  5  0  0

...and yes I think the Liberals will get more than 5 seats in Quebec.

Feel free to all you like.

[Asher]

Is it me, or is Harper saying "yum"?

[Odin]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Adopting privitized medicine like the states? Must have been a comedy show.

I swear public radio has been moving to the right lately here in the states.

[Tingkai]

The interesting thing about the polls is how poorly the Harper and the Conservatives are doing.

With the Liberal meltdown and its scandals, the Conservatives strolling to a majority. Yet, they're polling around 38%.

It just shows that the Conservative platform and Harper are at odds with the majority of Canadians.

[notyoueither]

It's showing that people in Ontario are falling for the Liberal line one more time.

But, let's see how the real polls turn out.

[notyoueither]

However, Harper did screw the pooch when he started yapping about 'checks and balances', as if his government were a forgone conclusion.

A federal campaign is no place to educate Canadians on civics.

It's almost as if he has a level of accomplishment that he is not comfortable attaining.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither
It's showing that people in Ontario are falling for the Liberal line one more time.

You mean it shows the people of Ontario are opposed to Conservative policies, and rightly so.

The SES poll shows the Conservatives peaking in Ontario around Jan 9, nine days before Harper's comments on judges and the bureaucracy.

[notyoueither]

No, it shows that people in Ontario are listening to Tales from the Crypt of babies being eaten, and worse.

[Tingkai]

Ah, yes, the Conservative opinion of the people in Ontario once again becomes evident. Anyone who disagrees with Conservative policies is immediately labelled as ignorant and guillable.

When will the Conservatives learn that their policies are at odds with what the majority of Canadians want.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by notyoueither
It's showing that people in Ontario are falling for the Liberal line one more time.

People falling for economic prosperity and social harmony... THE FOOLS!!!!!

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Tingkai
Ah, yes, the Conservative opinion of the people in Ontario once again becomes evident. Anyone who disagrees with Conservative policies is immediately labelled as ignorant and guillable.

When will the Conservatives learn that their policies are at odds with what the majority of Canadians want.

I don't know. Why don't you ask them, instead of treating posters here as a surrogate for the party?

Fact is the Liberals are not campaigning against the current Tories, or their policies.

They are dredging up years old speeches (the Light speech) issues that the Tories have rejected (abortion) ill informed opionions of the NYTimes (Bush's best friend) and outright lies about the Tory platform that go so far as to slander the Canadian Armed Forces (yes, they ran the ad, in French, in Quebec).

If you buy their latest bottle of snake oil, yes, you are gullible.