CanPol: Race to the Finish

[joncha]

You should probably put Surry North in the NDP column. Hell, even Cadman's widow is endorsing Penny Priddy.

Also, the Conservatives have just lost any hope for the Southern Interior:

B.C. Tory candidate dumped over smuggling charges
Last Updated Thu, 12 Jan 2006 11:27:00 EST
CBC News

The federal Tories are dumping a B.C. candidate who faces charges of attempting to smuggle a car and booze across the Canada-U.S. border.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said on Thursday that it's too late to replace Derek Zeisman as a candidate, but that he wouldn't be allowed to join the caucus.

"Mr. Zeisman will not be sitting as a Conservative should he be elected," Harper said. "He'll have to get this matter resolved."

Zeisman is running to replace retiring Conservative MP Jim Gouk in the riding of British Columbia Southern Interior. The party only found out about the six charges on Wednesday after it was contacted by the media.

Canada Customs and Revenue Agency alleges Zeisman tried to smuggle a 1989 Mercedes-Benz as well as 112 bottles of liquor in July 2004 from the U.S. into Canada. He's also accused of lying to customs officers about the incident.

If convicted, Zeisman could be fined up to $50,000 and face six months in jail.

Zeisman, who is to appear in court next month, did not tell his party about the charges, which he called "unjustified." He said the information was leaked by someone in the government who had a grudge against him.

Harper said he should have told the party about the charges.

The Tory candidate has worked as a trade commissioner for Industry Canada and a foreign service officer with the Canadian diplomatic corps.

Zeisman has other problems. He's currently in hospital because of a serious car accident just before Christmas.

An NDP candidate running against Zeisman says he couldn't believe the news.

"Shock and surprise. That was my first reaction," says Alex Atamanenko.

Atamanenko says he's alarmed voters were unaware of such a serious allegation about a candidate, less than two weeks before the Jan. 23 election. But he also says it would have been far worse had Zeisman won the seat, and the news came out later.

I can quibble with the some of the winners you gave for the marginal seats, but it's certainly a plausible outcome for BC.

[Wezil]

Come on Joncha!!

Quibbling is what we're all about.

[Ben Kenobi]

That said, did the Conservatives not finish third in this riding last time round? I've seen no polling specific to London-Fanshaw but the sign war would indicate Mathyyson (NDP) is in a strong position.

Well here are the results from last time out, with a social conservative running as the liberal.

15664 LIB
12511 NDP
10811 CON

4800 votes is not out of the question, considering that Harper and Martin are neck and neck in Ontario, with Martin's support concentrated in the GTA.

Any other ridings I should move to?

Be nice to have a Quebec seat for the conservatives.

[Ben Kenobi]

Joncha:

Yeah I saw that with the Southern Interior. Be nice to sweep all of the interior, but sadly that will not be happening.

As for Surrey North, Cadman was elected as a conservative and drew quite a few votes from the conservatives. That's why everyone, including myself was shocked to see him vote in favour of propping up the government.

As for Penny Priddy, I love old provincial retreads. At least Ujjal had the dignity to cross over


This was the result in Surrey North back in 2000.

17,115 53.79% Alliance
9,703 30.49% Liberal
2,475 7.78% NDP

So you'll have to forgive me for being skeptical of an NDP victory here.

[Wezil]

Sorry, but Quebec is out. My trade prevents me from working in that province.

I lived in Kitchener-Centre for a while but Karen Redman survived me. Bothers me to this day. Maybe I need a return visit there....

[Jon Miller]

you are a french-english translater?

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

Maybe this is why she is immune.

"Karen Redman was once a Tory back in the Mulroney years who switched to the Liberals and has been an MP since 1993."

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


A 16% shift away from the liberals cures all kinds of ills. If their support holds up, I don't see 3k as too difficult to make up.

A 16% shift would be way more than enough IF you take the last election results as the starting points for each party. I tend to think that the Conservatives vote in the riding was a little higher than usual due to them running a more powerful candidate last time. The margin if they had run a lesser candidate could arguably have been 5000 or 6000.


Do NOT underestimate the candidate effect . . . Particularly in rural politics where people do actually tend to know their candidates much better. Heck even the part of the riding a candidate comes from can hugely impact voting patterns.


------------------------------------------------------

This riding is an example of the small weakness in your methodology. You take the last election as the starting point without considering if the vote in that riding in the last election may be an anomoly for some reason. Its still a reasonably good method of breaking the polling data down into ridings but it will likely fail a s a predictor in ridings where there are large "candidate effects"

[Ben Kenobi]

Agreed, you make an excellent point. I try to look at the regional influences also, since that has a significant effect on the party support, moreso then the personal candidate popularity.

The margin if they had run a lesser candidate could arguably have been 5000 or 6000.

Which is counterbalanced by the collapse of Liberal support. I don't think the conservatives are going to run away from the seat, just that if these numbers are to be believed, the Conservatives have a good chance of taking the riding.

If you look at the margins of other seats, you see around the same margins being overcome by the conservatives, so I don't think it's too out of line.

Besides, if I'm wrong, you'll be able to poke fun at the outrageousness of my predictions in just 2 weeks time

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Agreed, you make an excellent point. I try to look at the regional influences also, since that has a significant effect on the party support, more so then the personal candidate popularity.

IN a given riding it is possible for the candidates to be completely determinative irrespective of the the greater trends.


Since neither of the candidates in that Bonavista riding are worlbeaters IMHO I would see party politics as being more determinative . .. I agree. I just don't think the last election is your starting point.

A 16% gap in support may well be enough for the Cons to take that seat even if we consider the Liberal starting support to be at a higher level than the last election suggested

Time will tell.


Raeding the Calgary SUN paper, they have all but annointed Harper. Given its conservative bias its not a great surprise but I understand that even the Liberal papers are giving Harper and the Conservatives some good press

[notyoueither]

Oh goody! He only approved the transcript!

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/12/elxn-libs-research-military.html

Martin says he only approved transcript of controversial 'soldiers' ad
Last Updated Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:44:32 EST
CBC News
Liberal Leader Paul Martin told CBC News he only approved the transcript of a controversial ad suggesting the Tories would post armed soldiers on the streets of Canadian cities.

During a CBC News Town Hall meeting hosted by Peter Mansbridge on Thursday, Martin said the ad was pulled when he saw the finished product and realized it could be misconstrued.

But earlier in the day Martin made no reference of only signing off on the transcript, saying he approved the ad. He said it was pulled "because we felt that there were better ads. That's essentially it."

The ad, which was briefly posted on the Liberal website, features an ominous drumbeat underneath a voice-over that says: "Stephen Harper actually announced he wants to increase military presence in our cities. Canadian cities. Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada."

The ad, which was never broadcast, stems from the Conservative platform which calls for 100 regular troops and 400 reservists to be based in major Canadian cities. But, according to that plan, their purpose would be only for humanitarian means or disaster relief efforts.

Martin said the ad was intended to criticize the Conservatives' policy, saying it would spread soldiers too far apart across the country.

But Mansbridge questioned Martin further about the ad, saying it makes no mention of policy and instead highlights the fact that would be soldiers in Canadian cities with guns.

Paul Martin answers questions from viewers.
Martin said it was when he and his campaign team saw the ad, and not just read the transcript, that they realized it was going to be misconstrued.

"When we saw what the ad looked like, it was very clear the message we were trying to convey would not be conveyed by that ad," Martin said.

This doofus couldn't tell the ad sucked based on the 23 words in the transcript? Were the words overly large?

[notyoueither]

Incidently, has anyone seen the French version, which is being reported as still running in Quebec?

Pulled it? Kind of like the tax was axed?

[notyoueither]

Apparently Jack couldn't tell the difference.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/12/layton-surgery060112.ht

Private clinic operation 'no secret', says Layton
Last Updated Thu, 12 Jan 2006 21:04:26 EST
CBC News
NDP Leader Jack Layton, who has campaigned as a defender of public health care, is answering questions regarding a hernia surgery he had at a private clinic in the 1990s.

Layton had the operation at the Shouldice Hospital in the Toronto suburb of Thornhill while he was a Toronto city councillor.

But Layton told the Canadian Press he wasn't aware the clinic was a private facility.

"It's just part of the system," Layton said in an interview. "The doctor says, 'Go there.' You pay with your (Ontario health) card. It never occurred to me (it was) anything other than medicare, which it is.

"I can tell you now, if my doctor ever refers me anywhere, I'll ask him that question. It never occurred to me at the time. It wasn't a controversy at the time. It wasn't something on one's mind."

Layton stressed that the Shouldice facility is a not-for-profit facility that has been part of the Ontario medical system for decades

He said the surgery was well publicized at the time and that he has not been trying to hide his operation at the clinic.

"This was no secret, believe me," he said. "Heck, [Toronto] Mayor [Mel] Lastman came to visit me there. Every family I knew, every middle-aged man that ever ran into a hernia, went to Shouldice. It's part of the system."

Earlier in the campaign, Layton said he would not go to a private clinic nor would he send a loved one to a private clinic, even if he could get faster treatment.

[KrazyHorse]

Uhhh...he paid for his visit with his Medicare card. And the clinic's been part of the Medicare system for decades.

I don't see what your point is...

Would you know if your clinic was private if your doctor referred you to it and you didn't have to pay any money for it?

[KrazyHorse]

Whereas these, on the other hand, are truly lameass excuses:

Martin says he only approved transcript of controversial 'soldiers' ad
Last Updated Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:44:32 EST
CBC News

Liberal Leader Paul Martin told CBC News he only approved the transcript of a controversial ad suggesting the Tories would post armed soldiers on the streets of Canadian cities.

During a CBC News Town Hall meeting hosted by Peter Mansbridge on Thursday, Martin said the ad was pulled when he saw the finished product and realized it could be misconstrued.

But earlier in the day Martin made no reference of only signing off on the transcript, saying he approved the ad. He said it was pulled "because we felt that there were better ads. That's essentially it."

The ad, which was briefly posted on the Liberal website, features an ominous drumbeat underneath a voice-over that says: "Stephen Harper actually announced he wants to increase military presence in our cities. Canadian cities. Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada."

The ad, which was never broadcast, stems from the Conservative platform which calls for 100 regular troops and 400 reservists to be based in major Canadian cities. But, according to that plan, their purpose would be only for humanitarian means or disaster relief efforts.

Martin said the ad was intended to criticize the Conservatives' policy, saying it would spread soldiers too far apart across the country.

But Mansbridge questioned Martin further about the ad, saying it makes no mention of policy and instead highlights the fact that would be soldiers in Canadian cities with guns.
Paul Martin answers questions from viewers.

Martin said it was when he and his campaign team saw the ad, and not just read the transcript, that they realized it was going to be misconstrued.

"When we saw what the ad looked like, it was very clear the message we were trying to convey would not be conveyed by that ad," Martin said.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/12/elxn-libs-research-military.html

Harper defends remarks to U.S. conservative movement
Last Updated Thu, 12 Jan 2006 21:09:45 EST
CBC News

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper faced questions over past remarks he made to an American conservative movement, comments the Liberals claim prove his allegiance to a radical right-wing agenda.

The comment is quoted in one of a series of controversial ads the Liberals released earlier this week. One quotes a speech Harper made eight years ago to a conservative American think-tank.

"America, and particularly your conservative movement, is a light and an inspiration to people in this country and across the world," the ad quotes Harper as saying.

Liberal Leader Paul Martin said Harper for years has "been courting and wooing the far right, the U.S. conservative movement."

But Harper defended his comment.

"I was the leader of a conservative organization addressing another conservative organization. And obviously we admire values of freedom and democracy and the promotion of our traditional values and I think we all understand that," Harper told reporters.

In the same speech, Harper also told the group that Canada was "a northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term."

Harper said he wasn't serious about that quote.

"The other comment as you know was tongue-in-cheek."

"It was Mr. Martin during that period of our history who was actually cutting the social programs that I was only referring to in my analysis," he added.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/12/harper-quotes060112.html