Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[EPW]

Yep and there's no doubt Hitler would have nuked everything if he could. Kinda scary.

[N35t0r]

Ukraine blows up (part of) the bridge used by the Russian army to supply Crimea. Russia declares it a terrorist action, and proceeds to launch 61 missile strikes, 32 airstrikes and over 92 shellings with MLRS on cities all over Ukraine, including the German consulate in Kiev (it has been empty since February though). At least 19 civilians dead and over 100 wounded. The hypocrisy is incredible.

All of this is happening while they are being forced to retreat by the Ukrainian army.

They could be actually targeting the Ukrainian army, but it seems like they prefer to terrorize civilians.

It is seriously depressingly sad, but the parallels to Hitler keep popping up.

[N35t0r]

No, they gave those back to Russia in exchange for a Russian guarantee to respect Ukrainian borders and protect them against other nuclear-equipped countries, further demonstrating that any deals signed with Russia aren't even worth the paper they're written on.

[N35t0r]

Lots of armored vehicles, but the only tanks donated so far have been models that Ukraine already has (mostly from former Warsaw pact countries), in some cases in exchange from current or future equipment from the west. Like Slovenia, they sent like 30 T-55s, and in exchange Germany gave them some military vehicles, or Poland, who will be (slowly) getting new Leopard IIs dress off the production line (starting next year, match) in exchange for their old T-72s, or Slovakia sending 30 IFVs (no tanks though) in exchange for 14 older Leopard II A4s.

The reasons are several, but mostly:
Logistics. It's hard to supply a lot of very different tank models. Former Warsaw pact models at least share a lot of parts similarities and use the same ammo, western tanks all use NATO ammo which is incompatible. The electronics are also different. This can bring problems in the field.
Furthermore, western tanks are generally heavier than former USSR tanks (M1A2 SEP v3 67 tonnes, Leopard 2 A7 66 tonnes, T-72B3M, T-80U and T-90M all are in the ballpark of 45-48 tonnes). This means that existing tank transport infrastructure is not required to handle them, and not all bridges and roads that can handle current tanks could support them (including military engineering pontoon bridges for use in an offensive, for example). This also creates logistics nightmares if no proper planning and preparation is done.
Finally, and no least important, it still takes a lot of time to train not only the crews to use the new tank, but also all the support and maintenance crews that will be also needed in order for any new tanks to be able to be more than a very expensive piece of steel after the first couple of days.

All this combined with the fact that the only western country with a stock of functioning spare tanks is the US, and M1A2s also have a further complication with their very power hungry turbine engine, which kind of relies on the amazing logistical tail that the US army can provide in order to function effectively.


I hope that with the lull in fighting coming with the mud season, and Ukraine's more stable position, can mean something will be done in this regard soon.

[Geronimo]

This is precisely the sort of thing we have poly OT for

[BeBMan]

Wild prediction: Kherson (the city) will be back in Ukrainian hands at some point this year. Siberia will declare itself independent in protest a week later or so, with Serb being crowned King of Siberia, holding grand speeches about weak westerners 24/7. Nukes will not be used as China has not authorized Putin to do so

[Egbert]

Any predictions on when Ukrainians will take Vladivostock and Petropavlovsk?

[BeBMan]

Finally Russia gets a real mighty piece of equipment:

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin gets a tractor for his 70th birthday

A tractor is one of the odder gifts for Vladimir Putin, as Russia's president, a pariah in the West since his invasion of Ukraine, turns 70.

It was given him by his Belarusian ally, Alexander Lukashenko, whose country boasts a tractor works.

Mr Lukashenko confirmed the news as he visited his fellow strongman's home city, St Petersburg, for talks.

(...)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63176124

So far Ukraine had a clear advantage in tractor deployments, so this could be a real gamechanger

[Geronimo]

I watch a few 1 hour things. It's just that transcripts are preferred for saving time when it's basically a recorded lecture.

[BlackCat]

There needs to be transcripts. Who has an extra hour to kill?

Still working full time, playing CIV VI, doing lots of other stuff and having time to watch this
I actually feel sorry for you youngsters that barely can handle a tiktok thing.

[Geronimo]

Yet another long and interesting perun thing :

Serb, there are no russian tictoc's so don't bother

There needs to be transcripts. Who has an extra hour to kill?

[BlackCat]

Yet another long and interesting perun thing :

Serb, there are no russian tictoc's so don't bother

[Serb]

:facepalm:

[Geronimo]

Ahh I see, short-term profit that causes Armageddon-style-long-term-non-profit. Let's hope Russian planners/thinkers are on par with the intellectual brilliance found on old gaming sites

Apparently they aren't. Escalate to de-escalate is a thing with these planners. They envision that they can scare everybody into giving them what they want with a nuclear strike and then nobody will try to emulate that success in the event that their plan actually pays off.

[BeBMan]

Ahh I see, short-term profit that causes Armageddon-style-long-term-non-profit. Let's hope Russian planners/thinkers are on par with the intellectual brilliance found on old gaming sites