Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

Fun to read old stuff again:



Bolding by me.

That was a red line in July. After strikes vs air base earlier, bridge now it's more orange-yellow.

Medvedev is quickly becoming the "Baghdad Bob" of this conflict.

[PLATO]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

Totally agree. On paper, Russia's military looked extremely formidable. It is a glaring failure of intelligence not to have detected the impact of widespread systemic corruption in the procurement system and the effects of inadequate training of personnel. One can only hope that the West actually knew this, but was not publicizing it. Things like offering Zelenskyy a ride out of town at the start of all this leads me to believe it was an intelligence failure.

[BeBMan]

Fun to read old stuff again:

MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - The refusal of Ukraine and Western powers to recognise Moscow's control of Crimea poses a "systemic threat" for Russia and any outside attack on the region will prompt a "Judgment Day" response, former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday.

(snipsnap)

His comments were aired a day after a Ukrainian official suggested that Crimea, which most of the world still recognises as part of Ukraine, could be a target for U.S.-made HIMARS missiles, recently deployed by Kyiv as it battles Russian forces.

Bolding by me.

That was a red line in July. After strikes vs air base earlier, bridge now it's more orange-yellow.

[N35t0r]

I think some ghastly Dr Stranglovian nuclear WMDs would go a long way to explain why Putin was so confident in attacking despite his conventional forces being so underwhelming vs NATO. If all he had was bluff I don't think he would have kept doubling down. I also don't think anyone should back down in the face of those ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs.

You don't need any ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs for that, just regular WMDs and the belief that Russian forces are as good as your advisors say they are, Ukrainian forces are as useless as they were in 2014, and the west will just appease away under the threat of expensive energy once the deed is done.

[N35t0r]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

Starting with the Russians themselves, clearly.

[Egbert]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

[PLATO]

U.S. systems are NBC capable. They are designed to operate on a nuclear battlefield, Each is equipped with an NBC system.

[PLATO]

I think some ghastly Dr Stranglovian nuclear WMDs would go a long way to explain why Putin was so confident in attacking despite his conventional forces being so underwhelming vs NATO. If all he had was bluff I don't think he would have kept doubling down. I also don't think anyone should back down in the face of those ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs.

I think Putin's ego and Putin's friend's corruption caused him to vastly over rate his conventional military. You think he would have learned a thing or two from Saddam's "mother of all battles" thinking. Clearly, western weapons and tactics are beyond a third rate spy's military evaluation capabilities.

WRT nuclear delivery systems...why would they be subject to less corruption than any other part of the military supply chain? Is Putin smart enough to ask himself that question?

[PLATO]

Although they are playing a real game of Civ, we have played out all kinds of scenarios thousands of times. They should listen to us.

[Geronimo]

Given that their conventional super-ultra-best west-killing weapons have so far been curiously absent from the conflict, I seriously doubt any of those exist.

I think some ghastly Dr Stranglovian nuclear WMDs would go a long way to explain why Putin was so confident in attacking despite his conventional forces being so underwhelming vs NATO. If all he had was bluff I don't think he would have kept doubling down. I also don't think anyone should back down in the face of those ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs.

[N35t0r]

Given that their conventional super-ultra-best west-killing weapons have so far been curiously absent from the conflict, I seriously doubt any of those exist.

[Geronimo]

V-weapons use.

What are they this time around? Super-EMP nukes? I wonder how hardened (if at all) NATO countries have become against those. Zero progress at all would be bitterly disappointing but not really surprising.

[N35t0r]

Yeah, that was what I meant.

A lost Ju-88 (I think, it could have been a Henkel) over England was running low on fuel, so they decided to drop their bombs and return. These landed somewhere in London, and angry Churchill vowed to hit Berlin in return. It was risky but succeeded (at the time, the Germans weren't on a full war economy still and there were no blackout orders after dark). Hitler lost it (more) and vowed to drown London in explosives. The rest is history.

[BeBMan]

V-weapons use.

[Egbert]

Ukraine blows up (part of) the bridge used by the Russian army to supply Crimea. Russia declares it a terrorist action, and proceeds to launch 61 missile strikes, 32 airstrikes and over 92 shellings with MLRS on cities all over Ukraine, including the German consulate in Kiev (it has been empty since February though). At least 19 civilians dead and over 100 wounded. The hypocrisy is incredible.

All of this is happening while they are being forced to retreat by the Ukrainian army.

They could be actually targeting the Ukrainian army, but it seems like they prefer to terrorize civilians.

It is seriously depressingly sad, but the parallels to Hitler keep popping up.

Umh. If I recall correctly the German Luftwaffe was focusing on attacking the Royal Air Force until the British bombed Berlin. Hitler then became angry and order the focus of bombing to shift to British cities. A parallel to Hitler, indeed!