Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

A Russian soldier with the nom de guerre "Cannibal" complains that of his unit of formerly 23 only 7 people are remaining and wishes for reinforcements.

Recruitment seems to be errrrm challenging:

(...)

According to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, the first reinforcements have already arrived in Donbass. But sometimes the arrival of new soldiers leads to further problems. According to media reports, there was a massive brawl between old soldiers and recruits at a military base near Moscow.

“The newcomers were not received there with bread and salt – on the contrary: the soldiers who served there demanded their clothes and mobile phones from the newcomers,” the internet portal Baza reported Monday. The conflict at Alabino’s training ground turned into a serious quarrel.

The newly hired got the upper hand. They are said to have beaten their tormentors so hard that about 20 regular soldiers ended up locking themselves in a building and asking the police for help. Only after their arrival was the conflict settled. According to the information, both parties have declined to report the matter.

(...)

From: https://todaytimeslive.com/world/132951.html

[BlackCat]

Some resonable thoughts :

https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido

[Proteus_MST]

A Russian soldier with the nom de guerre "Cannibal" complains that of his unit of formerly 23 only 7 people are remaining and wishes for reinforcements.

Understandable ... winter is coming and meat may become scarce

https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160

[BeBMan]

Looks like things are going south....literally

[Bereta_Eder]

[N35t0r]

They would rank among the top options if it wasn't so bad timing (which, granted, might be a part of the plan to deflect responsibility) and such a downright destructive act towards the relationship between the US and the rest of the west (I would say not to the same level as lying about Iraqi WMDs, but worse than being caught spying on 'allied' heads of state.

[Uncle Sparky]

[PLATO]

CIA

Protecting U.S. investment in liquified natural gas tankers.

Capitalism baby! Never waste a crisis.

(I REALLY hope that isn't true, but the CIA was warning of the possibility of pipeline terrorism for a couple of months now. Sigh....)

[BeBMan]

With Lyman about to fall, will this be the first 'Russian' city captured by Ukraine? This cannot stand, Putin better do something about it.

They were declared "forever" part of Russia and left the day after

[-Jrabbit]

Um, no. Not credible.

[Egbert]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuÃcult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

That makes sense.

[Uncle Sparky]

I blame moose and squirrel.

[Geronimo]

Thank you for that far more palatable explanation Proteus.

Four separate locations in such a small time frame seems like a stretch though.

[Proteus_MST]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuÃcult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

[Dauphin]

Cui bono.

The outcome of sabotage is to deny Russian gas to Northern Europe. Northern Europe may want to wean itself from Russian gas but to cut off any gas opportunities as you head into winter seems more an act of self harm than a benefit.

The benefit to Ukraine is Russia loses revenue income, but I don't think they'd have the capability to sabotage. And even if they did. they have better and more important targets.

The US may benefit, as it prevents Russians exporting gas, and makes Europe move away from Russian gas more quickly. Seems unlikely because if discovered the blowback would be ferocious. Given Europe is moving away from Russian dependency, the need to sabotage was low.

Russia benefits marginally - it can demonstrate a capacity to destroy infrastructure without consequence as it's hard to prove it was them. Also a good test case for them if they want to sabotage other at sea infrastructure - commuinication lines, other pipelines globally. This is a proof of concept test run as they ****stir everywhere as a rogue state. Combined this would send a message - we can do this and you can't respond because your hands are tied.