Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[EPW]

A short one :

does he polish his head?

[BlackCat]

A short one :

Serb seems to have lot of work to do - not only denazify Ukraine, drown kids and rape grandmothers but also desatanize them

[Berzerker]

Victoria Nuland and Amb Pyatt were on the phone picking Ukraine's next leader weeks before the coup

[BeBMan]

More regrouping is underway:

Ukrainian forces pressing an offensive in the south have zeroed in on Kherson, a provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion.

The possible fall of the city would deal another humiliation to Moscow after a string of battlefield defeats and other setbacks, further cornering Russian President Vladimir Putin and setting the stage for a potential escalation of the nearly 8-month-old war.

A look at the military and political importance of Kherson:

WHY IS THE CITY SUCH A PRIZE?

Kherson, which had a prewar population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. The city and surrounding areas fell into Moscow’s hands in the opening days of the conflict as Russian troops quickly pushed their attack north from Crimea — the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014.

Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine because of its location on the Dnieper River, near the mouth of the Black Sea, and its role as a major industrial center. Ukrainian resistance fighters have challenged Russian troops for control of the city ever since, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of Moscow-appointed officials.

Kherson also sits at a point where Ukraine can cut off fresh water from the Dnieper to Crimea. Kyiv blocked those vital supplies after the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation, and Putin mentioned the need to restore them as one reason behind his decision to invade.

During the summer, Ukrainian troops launched relentless attacks to reclaim parts of the province, also called Kherson and one of four regions that Russia illegally annexed after sham referendums last month. Ukraine has used U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers to repeatedly hit a key bridge on the Dnieper in Kherson and a large dam upstream also used as a crossing point. The strikes have forced Russia to rely on pontoons and ferries, also targeted by Ukraine.

This disrupts supply links to Kherson and the group of Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnieper and makes them vulnerable to encirclement. The shortages were exacerbated after an Oct. 8 truck bomb blew up part of the strategic Kerch Bridge linking Russia’s mainland to Crimea, which has served as a major supply hub for the Russian forces in the south.

WHAT HAS BEEN RUSSIA’S RESPONSE?

Putin blamed the Kerch Bridge attack on Ukraine’s military intelligence and responded by ordering a bombardment of energy infrastructure across Ukraine.

He also declared martial law in Kherson and the three other annexed regions in a bid to cement Moscow’s grip.

But as Ukrainian forces stubbornly pressed its offensive to the southwest alongside the Dnieper, Russian troops have found it increasingly difficult to stem their advance.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the newly appointed Russian commander in Ukraine, appeared to set the stage for a possible withdrawal from Kherson, acknowledging the situation in the region was “quite difficult” for Moscow and noting that the combat situation there was still evolving.

Russian authorities, who initially dismissed talk of evacuating the city, sharply changed course this week, warning that Kherson could come under massive Ukrainian shelling and encouraging residents to leave — but only to Russian-held areas.

The Kremlin-installed regional administration added a note of urgency on Saturday, saying that all civilians should leave immediately “because of the tense situation on the front, an increased danger of massive shelling of the city and the threat of terror attacks.”

Authorities said an estimated 25,000 people had left by Saturday. Officials of the Moscow-appointed regional administration also pulled back, along with other civil servants.

Moscow has warned that Ukraine might try to attack the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant about 50 kilometers (30 miles) upstream and flood broad areas, including the city of Kherson. Ukraine denies that and, in turn, accused Russia of planning to blow it up to cause catastrophic flooding before its retreat.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleged the dam already was mined by Russia and urged world leaders to make clear to the Kremlin that blowing it up would “mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction.”

WHAT WOULD LOSING KHERSON MEAN FOR RUSSIA?

A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the Dnieper’s west bank would shatter Russian hopes to press an offensive west to Mykolaiv and Odesa to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Such a move would deal a devastating blow to its economy. It would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova, home to a major Russian military base.

“The loss of Kherson will turn all those southern dreams by the Kremlin into dust,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov. “Kherson is a key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for the Russian forces. Russians will try to retain control of it using all means.”

For Ukraine, capturing Kherson would set the stage for reclaiming the Russia-held part of the Zaporizhzhia region and other areas in the south, and eventually pushing back into Crimea.

“Ukraine just needs to wait until Kherson falls into its hands like a ripe apple, because the situation with supplies for the Russian group of forces keeps exacerbating by the day,” Zhdanov said.

Ukraine hopes to quickly double the number of U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers that could strike targets 80 kilometers (50 miles) away with a deadly precision, he said.

Reclaiming control of Kherson would also mean Kyiv could again cut off water to Crimea.

“After the deoccupation of Kherson, the Russians will again have problems with fresh water in Crimea,” Zhdanov added.

He said Putin could up the ante if faced with losing Kherson.

“The Russians would be ready to wipe Kherson off the face of the Earth rather than give it to Ukraine,” Zhdanov said.

Destroying the dam to cause massive flooding in the mostly flat area would be one way for Moscow to do that.

“The Russians want to show that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will face a tough response by the Kremlin that declared the region as part of Russia, and it’s scary to even think what that response could be,” Zhdanov added.

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta Center independent think tank, noted that controlling the Kherson region and other southern areas was a major prize for Russia and their loss would have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad.

“If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face another wave of fierce criticism of the military command and the authorities in general from ultra-patriotic circles,” Fesenko said, adding that the fall of the city would further demoralize the armed forces and possibly fuel opposition to the mobilization effort.

He also said China and India. which are carefully watching Russia’s action in Ukraine, will see the fall of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness.

“Putin will face reputational losses not only inside the country, but also in the eyes of China, and that could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin,” Fesenko said.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-europe-crimea-6abd0bd3506dc7686ce071395f107648

[Geronimo]

pchang attempt to use latin in a coherent way is even more funnier than geronimo's failure to refute eve one of my points.

gifts that don't stop giving

It was still an invitation to explain why you believe that only economic considerations matter to the German government and that the Americans only wanted to use Nazis to undermine Russia.

[Bereta_Eder]

what are you? the logical challenged wandering circus of wanders?

[Bereta_Eder]

pchang attempt to use latin in a coherent way is even more funnier than geronimo's failure to refute eve one of my points.

gifts that don't stop giving

[pchang]

Paiktis is very good at ex post facto reasoning.

[pchang]

It appears that new troops are being deployed and are immediately killed because they have no idea what they are doing.

[Geronimo]

now if you want to take morality completely off it all becomes self evident


germany didn't give a freck about human rights and democracy. cheap russian gas would boost german econmomy and that's all that matters.


US didn't give a rat's ass about freedom. we will keep pusing the nazis in ukraine against the russians until putin breaks and attacks

we'll crew both germany and russia (let ukraineians die who cares)

we'll further isolate russia which is our goal and our strategicl global enemy and cipple germany's cheap gas plan.

How is this self evident?

With respect to Germany, if all Germans cared about is bottom line economics they would never have shut down their nuclear power to pander to the quasi-religious hang-ups of the Greens. It's painfully obvious that economics is just one of several political levers that manipulates the statecraft.

Also, why would the US (or any distant foreign power) be more interested in local Ukrainian politics and clandestine revolutionary/coup intrigue than would local Ukrainian interest groups?

When was the last piece of evidence for any relevance of Ukrainian Nazis let alone for US support for those Nazis? It may be plausible that the US paid and trained and supported as large a gang of mal-contents as it could dredge up to try to support the coup once it was it was obviously proceeding but to try to create it from pure astroturfing would be insanely risky and laughably unlikely to succeed. The fact that a leaked phone call shows that some in the US government took for granted that the coup makers were behind the sniping only suggests that they could deconstruct motives. Was anything other than the leaked call offered as evidence for outsider involvement with the coup?

There was a coup in Ukraine not because of anybody outside Ukraine but because Ukraine was profoundly politically divided and that made it a powder keg. All the outsiders did was try to find ways to funnel support to the side of the conflict that they favored.

[Bereta_Eder]

I actually view this conflict primarily by my friend's eyes who grew up in Greece and experienced democracy first hand (he loves greece, he is greek - and ukranian) and WANTS that for his country of origin. He anbnsolutely hates putin. I mean real hatred.

So I'm sure there are ukranians like him that want just freedom. that see a fork in the road. europe or russia and have decided 100% for europe,

my mind goes back 200 years when greeks were against the mighiest empire of that time and also just wanted that. freedom

[BeBMan]

I do not understand why Europe is sanctioning Russia to the point of having an energy crisis. It is not in the interests of Europeans citizens to freeze in winter.

It's not in Europe's interest to let Russia take territories/redraw borders/attempting to wipe Ukraine off the map by force without any reaction.

[PLATO]

If the alternative here was a hot war with Russia or a cold winter, I would buy a coat. European sacrifice in this regard may keep Russia from being able to fund or expand its war efforts. Victory in Ukraine is essential to prevent a spread of the conflict imho. From what Russian leadership has said, they most clearly have designs on Moldova next. If they absorb Ukraine and Moldova, then we can move on to their leaderships comments about the Balkans and Poland. Megalomaniacs like Putin have to be stopped. No Russian energy in Europe may be harsh, but it looks like it could easily beat the alternative.

[Bereta_Eder]

now if you want to take morality completely off it all becomes self evident


germany didn't give a freck about human rights and democracy. cheap russian gas would boost german econmomy and that's all that matters.


US didn't give a rat's ass about freedom. we will keep pusing the nazis in ukraine against the russians until putin breaks and attacks

we'll crew both germany and russia (let ukraineians die who cares)

we'll further isolate russia which is our goal and our strategicl global enemy and cipple germany's cheap gas plan.

[Bereta_Eder]

and of course the communist in me jumps up and says an obvious truth.


europe is funding russia's war

I think marx said that the capitalists will sell you the rope with which you'll hang them?

huh....