Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

How does Russia profit when, as you write "the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable"?

I didn't say endless net profit. There is such a thing as short term profit and it can be notoriously destructive. Any profit in using nukes, however short term, so long as it was viewed as end of the immediate chain of events,would be expected to start the deathspiral of events.

if Russia nuked even one target and its enemies made concessions of any kind as a result or if the material exchange resulting from the target's retribution was a greater net gain for Russia than the cost of the strike, I maintain the events that follow would lead to the end.

[BeBMan]

If Russia profits in any way whatsoever from WMD use, the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable even if it would be a months or at most a few years away.

How does Russia profit when, as you write "the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable"?

[Geronimo]

I think Ukraine and its allies aren't doing a good enough job of making it clear that all options, especially desperate escalatory options like WMD use, will only lead to a worse outcome than making an excuse to cut and run and retreat from occupied Ukraine. Russia is still being allowed to believe the enormous coalition arrayed behind Ukraine could be made to accept Russia gaining territory at Ukraine's expense.

The dangerous thing is that while they have done a decent job underlining that nothing conventionally that Russia could do in Ukraine would make them abandon Ukraine they have not made clear that WMD usage in or outside of Russia cannot deter them.

They must make clear that if Russia crosses that Rubicon, it will lose no matter the risk to the Ukrainian allies.

If Russia (or any state or world stage actor for that matter) profits in any way whatsoever from WMD use, the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable even if it would be a months or at most a few years away. The nuclear weapon attacks in Japan in WW2 only got a pass because of novelty and essentially served as a horrific demonstration but nonetheless they also served to incentivize their future use. At this point nobody will hesitate to build more nukes if able after a profitable nuke attack and many states would either attempt to similarly profit themselves or more likely seek to successfully engage in successful counter force first strikes against their potential nuclear armed rivals.

[PLATO]

One step closer for Ukraine. The symbolism of the Kerch bridge strike should be enormous in Crimea. Reports of long lines at gas stations as the Crimean population realizes the significance of the supply line. Medvedev had stated earlier that Ukraine knew “what the target will be” if they hit the bridge. Russia’s response will be telling both to capabilities and intentions I think.

[Geronimo]

BS. Even if Russia gave them all of their tanks Ukraine must wrap this up as decisively as possible as quickly as possible. Russia is not even giving them half of the Russian tanks.

[Uncle Sparky]

The soviets used to have nukes stationed in Ukraine (maybe). Maybe Ukraine doesn't have nukes like Israel doesn't have nukes?

[BeBMan]

Following the bridge thing Putin acts decisively:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been briefed about the "emergency" on the Crimean bridge.

He has ordered a government commission to be established to investigate the incident, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

Peskov told the Interfax news agency: "The president has instructed the prime minister to form a government commission to establish the causes of the incident and eliminate its aftermath as soon as possible.

(...)

Bibs

[BeBMan]

Russian bridges falling down...falling down...

I blame squirrels.


Edit: Oh and happy birthday Putin. May it be your last.

[Egbert]

In all fairness, the Russians ARE driving them across the boarder to deliver them. That does make it a little easier.

Serb has not been poasting much. What if he is too busy delivering tanks to talk to us?

[EPW]

Russian bridges falling down...falling down...

[N35t0r]

The US' system, where technically all you need is the president ordering the strike, is the one that is bonkers

[Thoth]

There's no need for NATO to be contributing more tanks when Russia is being so generous with gifting away their tanks.

[PLATO]

I think with such an unpredictable leader Russia should also give up its nukes for security guarantees from Ukraine

Nukes are an interesting subject wrt Ukraine. They obviously have the technology and raw material to create one. One has to wonder if they maybe have some kind of clandestine op going to be able to respond if Russia were to nuke Kyiv...........

[BeBMan]

Aye ... a much better service than the western countries provide

I think with such an unpredictable leader Russia should also give up its nukes for security guarantees from Ukraine

[Geronimo]

There is btw. one nation which puts not only germany but even the USA to shame, when it comes to deliveering heavy weapon systems.

This country is Russia.

Russia (according to informations of the british MoD) already delivered more than 440 MBTs and around 650 other armoured vehicles to Ukraina.
Very likely more than half of the ukrainian tank forces now uses russian Tanks

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...62947150938113

I don't get why NATO and other countries allied to Ukraine have been so stingy with armored vehicles. If they want the war over obviously massive assistance to Ukraine is the fastest route and there is no place the armored vehicles would serve the allied donators more efficiently than in Ukraine and no better time than ASAP. Its a disgrace that so many of these countries have donated zero armored vehicles to date.