Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

Lt. General Igor Kolesnikov is the current head of the 12th Main Directorate. The final decision to implement an order to use nuclear weapons would fall to him. I did find one article about him at

https://www.newsy.com/stories/this-russian-force-stands-between-putin-and-a-nuclear-strike/

Not much other info I can find on him. It looks like he may have come up through GRU instead of KGB so he may not be as closely tied to Putin's network as others, but the article describes the 12th Main Directorate as somewhat apolitical, professional, and mission focused. I am not sure there is anyway to predict how he would react to an order to use nuclear weapons.

[Proteus_MST]

In all fairness, the Russians ARE driving them across the boarder to deliver them. That does make it a little easier.

Aye ... a much better service than the western countries provide

[PLATO]

There is btw. one nation which puts not only germany but even the USA to shame, when it comes to deliveering heavy weapon systems.

This country is Russia.

Russia (according to informations of the british MoD) already delivered more than 440 MBTs and around 650 other armoured vehicles to Ukraina.
Very likely more than half of the ukrainian tank forces now uses russian Tanks

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...62947150938113

In all fairness, the Russians ARE driving them across the boarder to deliver them. That does make it a little easier.

[Proteus_MST]

There is btw. one nation which puts not only germany but even the USA to shame, when it comes to deliveering heavy weapon systems.

This country is Russia.

Russia (according to informations of the british MoD) already delivered more than 440 MBTs and around 650 other armoured vehicles to Ukraina.
Very likely more than half of the ukrainian tank forces now uses russian Tanks

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1578262947150938113

[Geronimo]

The very idea of nuclear war is so terrifying that is no assurance that any order to use nukes first would be obeyed. His generals, or anybody present, might decide it is better to kill the lunatic ordering a nuclear strike rather than bear the risk of a counter strike.

That's not how Russians ever talk about using nukes. They talk like nuking your enemies just brings the target states to their senses, gets Russia what it wants and brings in a new golden age.

[Egbert]

I had assumed that Putin might not be financially motivated but it seems to be corroborated at least once in this article. Thank God actually. Because given that he supposedly said "when a fight is inevitable, you must hit first, and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to his feet", I think it is clear that if desperation were to drive him to use nukes it would have an enormous chance of being the kind of huge strike that leads to the apocalyptic Armageddon exchange. Maybe we can hope his greed motives will indicate the kind of hedonistic values that make that outcome totally unacceptable to him. Even less acceptable than Russia losing a special military operation.

The very idea of nuclear war is so terrifying that is no assurance that any order to use nukes first would be obeyed. His generals, or anybody present, might decide it is better to kill the lunatic ordering a nuclear strike rather than bear the risk of a counter strike.

[BeBMan]

He certainly has the largest.....tables, which get better maintenance than his whole army.

[Dauphin]

Isn’t Putin the richest man in the world?

[Geronimo]

I had assumed that Putin might not be financially motivated but it seems to be corroborated at least once in this article. Thank God actually. Because given that he supposedly said "when a fight is inevitable, you must hit first, and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to his feet", I think it is clear that if desperation were to drive him to use nukes it would have an enormous chance of being the kind of huge strike that leads to the apocalyptic Armageddon exchange. Maybe we can hope his greed motives will indicate the kind of hedonistic values that make that outcome totally unacceptable to him. Even less acceptable than Russia losing a special military operation.

[BlackCat]

Long, but interesting :

[Geronimo]

Maybe that's how the Russians did it. They actively pumped water into the pipes to form methane hydrates, knowing it would block the pipes and cause an explosion (as opposed to the usual practice of dehydrating before putting gas into the pipes). Methane hydrate ice forms at temperatures a few degress above 0C. Possibly higher under higher pressures.

The primary russian motivation is to make sabotage obvious while not getting caught out. I'd be impressed if Russia did that via water in the pipes somehow knowing the resulting explosions would look more like sabotage than like shoddy maintenance or from activity only they could perform.

[Dauphin]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuícult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

Maybe that's how the Russians did it. They actively pumped water into the pipes to form methane hydrates, knowing it would block the pipes and cause an explosion (as opposed to the usual practice of dehydrating before putting gas into the pipes). Methane hydrate ice forms at temperatures a few degress above 0C. Possibly higher under higher pressures.

[Geronimo]

Seems like the Starlink terminals were paid for by USAID however

https://www.space.com/spacex-usaid-starlink-terminals-ukraine

So maybe, delivering them to Ukraine might have been just a combination of a business deal and a PR stunt for Musk

Your linked article breaks it down as 3667 terminals donated by masks company and 1333 donated by USAID in terms of funding.

[Geronimo]

I think he is still is sanctioned as forbidden to enter Russia. That might keep him away from the most dangerous stairs and windows

[Proteus_MST]

Sure Musk is a terrible role model but Ukraine would have lost the war without Musk's donated Starlink terminals and that was decisive enough to win him official Russian death threats which have kept his mother awake at night.

I was genuinely surprised to read about his peace agreement idea.

Seems like the Starlink terminals were paid for by USAID however

https://www.space.com/spacex-usaid-starlink-terminals-ukraine

So maybe, delivering them to Ukraine might have been just a combination of a business deal and a PR stunt for Musk