Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Ming]

The solution may be for the counter offensive to get close to Crimea and let Russia keep it as part of a peace deal.
Allowing Russia to save a tad bit of face...

[Geronimo]

I agree with #1.I would add:
4.) Push Russia back to the lines as they were on February 23, 2022. 90%

I think this is the most likely unless Russia uses nukes or Ukraine makes an enormous strategic blunder that Russia actually manages to exploit.

[PLATO]

I agree with #1. I also agree with #2. #3 I think only has a 20% chance because I think the people in Crimea really do not care about remaining part of Ukraine. I would add:
4.) Push Russia back to the lines as they were on February 23, 2022. 90%

#4 is a good addition! I agree with this one as well. Should have thought to make that an option. Also, I won't argue one bit with 20% on # 3...an excellent point on the feelings of the population of Crimea.

[pchang]

I agree with #1. I also agree with #2. #3 I think only has a 20% chance because I think the people in Crimea really do not care about remaining part of Ukraine. I would add:
4.) Push Russia back to the lines as they were on February 23, 2022. 90%

[PLATO]

I guess at this point we need to define what "conquering Russia" means in the context of this war. Are talking Ukrainian tanks in Red Square? Retaking Donbas but sans Crimea? Retaking Donbas AND Crimea? In certain contexts, any of those could be defined as "conquering Russia".

So as long as the war does not go nuclear then here are my odds (with no possible dates attached)

1.) Ukrainian tanks in Red Square - Less than 1%. Red Square would have to be glowing in radioactivity and a world war would have to have been faught and lost by Russia...even then Ukrainian tanks in Red Square is hard to imagine.

2.) Retake Donbas but not Crimea - 75%. Unless the Russian military really gets its act together or Western arms quit showing up, this is looking more likely. The local militias have been devastated by being used as cannon fodder and if the Russian lines break then the Ukrainians stand a good chance here.

3.) Retake Donbas AND Crimea - 30%. Russia is likely to mobilize, imho, to protect Crimea since it has been officially "annexed" into Russia. The West would probably force Ukraine into peace talks as opposed to a possible years long battle to retake the peninsula.

[pchang]

Bumped upon request.

[BeBMan]

Nuclear threats should be countered by deploying this guy:

[My Wife Hates CIV]

ohhh! russia is setting up their nukes again... i guess the next xmas package of US bang bang toys is making Putina get RED in the face. haha

[BeBMan]

We know what it did to public opinion in Finland and Sweden, hehe.

[Egbert]

This is the nature of wars of attrition. IMHO, this works against Russia as long as Ukraine's supply lines to the west are open and China remains scarred of helping Russia to much. Of course, Russia has massive resources in storage so that may make it a very long conflict and it would be hard to imagine the West keeping this level of support up for years.....

Ukraine needs western support.
For western governments to give that support they need voters who do not object to the cost of support.
I daresay a lot of people could not point to Ukraine on a map or tell you anything about Ukraine.
It would be rash to assume that the west has given Ukraine a blank cheque.

[N35t0r]

Russia's economy is on a deadline.

[PLATO]

This is the nature of wars of attrition. IMHO, this works against Russia as long as Ukraine's supply lines to the west are open and China remains scarred of helping Russia to much. Of course, Russia has massive resources in storage so that may make it a very long conflict and it would be hard to imagine the West keeping this level of support up for years.....

[pchang]

Weaker relative to the rest of the world I would say, but not weaker relative to Ukraine.

while both are weaker than before, I think Ukraine got weaker by a few percentage points less than Russia.

[Geronimo]

Well, that's basically what this retired Russian colonel said on Russian TV. Before he made a U-turn that is.

Weaker relative to the rest of the world I would say, but not weaker relative to Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

Well, that's basically what this retired Russian colonel said on Russian TV. Before he made a U-turn that is.