Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Looks like Ukrainian forces are still battling heroic Russian mines and booby traps. There was a news bit a while ago of Ukrainian civilians in Kherosn coming out, but who knows if these were real, or the Russian soldiers in civvie clothes Dauphin mentioned (Russian stealth fighters?).


IMO it's time for some regrouping in the Kremlin.

In other news: no, there is no mass-cutting down of trees in Germany due to people freezing everywhere. Just in case someone comes across this gem
It's Nov 11, outside temperatures have been almost 20C last week, still nearly 15C today. Gas storages are full, like in 99+ % full. So basically full full, which covers ca. two months in normals times, but without new stuff like further LNG planned to go online in Dec. or outrageous stuff like saving counted in.

[PLATO]

I have seen a lot about Ukraine waning to protect the lives of their soldiers recently. Zelenskyy is saying that this is the reason for the slow advance. If the Ukrainians can have success in reducing Russian Forces with artillery then they will do that, but I think the main objective is to just get them out of the city at this point. I imagine that both armies are exhausted at this point.

Anyone know when western trained Ukrainians will begin filling the ranks? I have not heard a word about this.

[Geronimo]

I wonder if the himars and real time Intel is good enough for Ukraine to blow up the Ferries or if it is but they want to leave Russians an exit. Conventional wisdom says always leave your enemy an exit, but I wonder if in this case it would be better to trap and kill/capture them all since they will surely otherwise face them on the far side of the river later on.

[Dinner]

Regrouping continues:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387

(edit: not sure if this is final, last I heard was fears about a Russain "trap" in regard to positive news recently, but I guess we'll find out at some pt)

Supposedly Russia has had massive supply problems ever since the Kerch Bridge was bombed. So bad they've been running out of fuel and artillery shells. There is only two ways out of the western pocket, two bridges, neither of which can support heavy equipment due to damage. That means the 20,000-40,000 Russian troops will need to go through those choke points. Expect those two points to become killing fields especially as forces back up waiting to get across. Bunched up troops are dead troops as they make excellent targets.

These are supposedly Russia's best trained and best equipped units so other than a tiny amount of heavy equipped that can get out by ferry boat all of that heavy equipment is going to get lost by Russia. They will either destroy it themselves or it will get captured by Ukraine. This is going to be a bonanza for Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/mbl1v_4vqbA

[BeBMan]

Yeah, those people shooting at Ukrainian soldiers and being shot at by Ukrainian soldiers are not Russians in civilians clothes but proud Ukrainian denizens of Kherson who love the almighty Putin and want him to rule over them with his iron fist.

I'm concerned that a Russian retreat will cede more holy lands to Satan

[pchang]

That's already almost twice as many Soviet KIA+WIA in Afghanistan, and that was over 9 years. Of the ~15k killed, more than 5k came from Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

It's impressive the amount of brainwashing that Putin managed over the past 20 years.

We have our very own Serb to demonstrate just how effective it has been.

[Dauphin]

Yeah, those people shooting at Ukrainian soldiers and being shot at by Ukrainian soldiers are not Russians in civilians clothes but proud Ukrainian denizens of Kherson who love the almighty Putin and want him to rule over them with his iron fist.

[BeBMan]

Regrouping continues:

Russia's military has been ordered to pull out of the Ukrainian city of Kherson, the only regional capital captured since the invasion began in February.

Russia's commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, said it was no longer possible to maintain supplies to the city.

The withdrawal means Russian forces will pull out entirely from the region on the western bank of the River Dnipro.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387

(edit: not sure if this is final, last I heard was fears about a Russain "trap" in regard to positive news recently, but I guess we'll find out at some pt)

[PLATO]

It's impressive the amount of brainwashing that Putin managed over the past 20 years.

Just speaks to how important it is that we limit our leaders power. Same could happen here if we let it.

[N35t0r]

That's already almost twice as many Soviet KIA+WIA in Afghanistan, and that was over 9 years. Of the ~15k killed, more than 5k came from Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

It's impressive the amount of brainwashing that Putin managed over the past 20 years.

[PLATO]

North of 20 million per WW2?

I think that if there are 20 million dead Russians from this war that Putin will be one of them.

[BeBMan]

Back then Russia was the victim of outside aggression. Today Putin's just posing as such.

[Geronimo]

I wonder what the critical mass is for the Russian people to start to seriously rumble.

North of 20 million per WW2?

[PLATO]

A Russian Telegram channel asserts that over 106,000 Russians have died fighting in Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022. That would seem a huge number to hide.

I wonder what the critical mass is for the Russian people to start to seriously rumble.

[Jon Miller]

Does that include MIA? There might be a lot MIA.

JM