Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

He needs to stay away from windows and stairs

[Geronimo]

Sure Musk is a terrible role model but Ukraine would have lost the war without Musk's donated Starlink terminals and that was decisive enough to win him official Russian death threats which have kept his mother awake at night.

I was genuinely surprised to read about his peace agreement idea.

[N35t0r]

He's an amazing example of Dunning-Kruger in effect.

His achievements with Tesla and SpaceX are incredible, but man is he an *******.

Also, a tone-deaf *******; with the tweet about the vote in the occupied territories yet on the Tesla side he is illegally anti-union.

[Uncle Sparky]

Gary Busey, Woody Harrelson, Johnny Depp...

[The Mad Monk]

Attention whore, sure, but he's being amazingly successful for a drug addict in his particular industries.

[EPW]

Musk is a drug addict and attention whore who is easily manipulated.

[Geronimo]

As recently as a couple short months ago I definitely strongly favored a peace formula similar to what Musk suggested in his recent Poll. I remember being incredulous at reports that Biden and Boris Johnson were "torpedoing" a generous peace agreement between Putin and Zelensky in which Russia keeps the Donbas and Crimea and graciously withdraws forces from the rest of Ukraine. I didn't think any western leader would be so much of a warmonger as to reject any status quo ante-bellum agreement (assuming we accept it started 24Feb2022) and even if they were I didn't think they had the kind of leverage that could stop a peace agreement, only the kind that could stop successful Ukrainian war effort.

I think it's clear that I was wrong. Not really because Ukraine looks to be winning, (in fact I think Russian desperation may still lead to Ukraine losing everything), but mostly because I've come to realize that a peace agreement doesn't actually make or facilitate peace without honest rational actors implementing it on both sides.

Russia Signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 1997 Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty both of which guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and in 2014 Putin grossly violated both treaties with the only excuse being that he maintained he didn't need to honor treaties with Ukraine in the event that Nazis take it over in an illegal coup (the fact that no provision for nullification in the event of a nazi coup in either country existed in the agreements notwithstanding). Since Putin has declared that Ukraine was being denazified by his special military operation it is obvious that he will define all treaties with them as nullified unless he validates the leadership of Ukraine as denazified and only until such time as he doesn't recognize them as returning to Nazification at any future time.

Of course post "annexation" there is the new total roadblock to any treaty as Russia maintains that nobody can legally negotiate any status other than as part of Russia for any of the 4 oblasts declared as "annexed". If All Russia negotiators are legally forbidden to negotiate (other than perhaps for unconditional Ukrainian Surrender) and Russia reserves the right to nullify all treaties with Ukraine any peace treaty, however Solomonic is obviously going to be DoA.

I just don't understand how Musk and others can feel that at this point there is any point in discussing a peace treaty. What possible strength and utility would the "treaty" even be able to have?

[BeBMan]

[N35t0r]

This is highly unlikely, the amount of water that would have to be inside the pipe to form ice is ridiculously high, and even then it's unlikely that the temperature inside the pipe would be below freezing (since in that case, it would mean the Baltic is frozen solid)

[Uncle Sparky]

NS 1 & 2... blame the Scots. They've been causing chaos by blowing pipes for centuries.

[BeBMan]

Some resonable thoughts :
https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido

Nice. "The US is behind it cause Biden said so" is not flying since the pipes were already dead when they were blown. Gas supply thru NS 1 had stopped before, NS 2 never went online, and Europe committed to leaving Ru as major supplier, and made quite some progress in that meanwhile. Even *if* there's a US interest re LNG, or whatever -- blowing up pipes is simply absurd in that regard.

If anyone actually seen the press conf were Biden said he'll shut down NS 2 -- it's been obviously a political comment at a time when Scholz (right next to Biden at the same press conf) was still unclear on that publicly. Also, if we now take Biden literally why did they also "shut down" NS 1? He only said NS 2!?!


As for the last stage - what risk Russia is ready to take now since it's on the losing path: pretty much an open question still IMO -- after all, since the pipes were already of no use anymore the risk in this particular case was not sky-high. Which of course is no guarantee for the future.

[Proteus_MST]

Doesn't bode well for the quality of the Russian Army, if Recruits are able to defeat Regulars in close combat <and said Regulars then have to be rescued by the Police

[BeBMan]

A Russian soldier with the nom de guerre "Cannibal" complains that of his unit of formerly 23 only 7 people are remaining and wishes for reinforcements.

Recruitment seems to be errrrm challenging:

(...)

According to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, the first reinforcements have already arrived in Donbass. But sometimes the arrival of new soldiers leads to further problems. According to media reports, there was a massive brawl between old soldiers and recruits at a military base near Moscow.

“The newcomers were not received there with bread and salt – on the contrary: the soldiers who served there demanded their clothes and mobile phones from the newcomers,” the internet portal Baza reported Monday. The conflict at Alabino’s training ground turned into a serious quarrel.

The newly hired got the upper hand. They are said to have beaten their tormentors so hard that about 20 regular soldiers ended up locking themselves in a building and asking the police for help. Only after their arrival was the conflict settled. According to the information, both parties have declined to report the matter.

(...)

From: https://todaytimeslive.com/world/132951.html

[BlackCat]

Some resonable thoughts :

https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido

[Proteus_MST]

A Russian soldier with the nom de guerre "Cannibal" complains that of his unit of formerly 23 only 7 people are remaining and wishes for reinforcements.

Understandable ... winter is coming and meat may become scarce

https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160