Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Looks like things are going south....literally

[Bereta_Eder]

[N35t0r]

They would rank among the top options if it wasn't so bad timing (which, granted, might be a part of the plan to deflect responsibility) and such a downright destructive act towards the relationship between the US and the rest of the west (I would say not to the same level as lying about Iraqi WMDs, but worse than being caught spying on 'allied' heads of state.

[Uncle Sparky]

[PLATO]

CIA

Protecting U.S. investment in liquified natural gas tankers.

Capitalism baby! Never waste a crisis.

(I REALLY hope that isn't true, but the CIA was warning of the possibility of pipeline terrorism for a couple of months now. Sigh....)

[BeBMan]

With Lyman about to fall, will this be the first 'Russian' city captured by Ukraine? This cannot stand, Putin better do something about it.

They were declared "forever" part of Russia and left the day after

[-Jrabbit]

Um, no. Not credible.

[Egbert]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuícult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

That makes sense.

[Uncle Sparky]

I blame moose and squirrel.

[Geronimo]

Thank you for that far more palatable explanation Proteus.

Four separate locations in such a small time frame seems like a stretch though.

[Proteus_MST]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuícult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

[Dauphin]

Cui bono.

The outcome of sabotage is to deny Russian gas to Northern Europe. Northern Europe may want to wean itself from Russian gas but to cut off any gas opportunities as you head into winter seems more an act of self harm than a benefit.

The benefit to Ukraine is Russia loses revenue income, but I don't think they'd have the capability to sabotage. And even if they did. they have better and more important targets.

The US may benefit, as it prevents Russians exporting gas, and makes Europe move away from Russian gas more quickly. Seems unlikely because if discovered the blowback would be ferocious. Given Europe is moving away from Russian dependency, the need to sabotage was low.

Russia benefits marginally - it can demonstrate a capacity to destroy infrastructure without consequence as it's hard to prove it was them. Also a good test case for them if they want to sabotage other at sea infrastructure - commuinication lines, other pipelines globally. This is a proof of concept test run as they ****stir everywhere as a rogue state. Combined this would send a message - we can do this and you can't respond because your hands are tied.

[Proteus_MST]

She definitely looks great

[Geronimo]

I am sincerely worried that an actor or group of actors other than Russia may have been stupid enough to sabotage Nordstrom. However, I don't see a motive really makes sense for anyone.

Maybe it would make sense for Russia if they were dogmatically committed to never exporting gas via the pipeline again, but why physically commit to that rather than stringing the recipients along with false hope and total Russian control? Maybe Russia would hope to frame the US to sow discord in NATO but how could they predict how that would play out? Maybe they could foment anti NATO sentiment among Russians but it will do nothing to alleviate Putin's primary domestic concern of perceived weakness or incompetence.

Maybe it could be the US but the timing is strange since the deed would have been least suspicious when Russia first shutdown Nordstrom 1 for maintenance. If the US did this unilaterally it would be incredibly stupid for NATO unity and give the US nothing immediately in return for the risk of discovery. So, I suspect if it wasn't Russia then perhaps the sabotage was endorsed collectively by NATO behind the scenes with those members such as Germany whose interests seem to be directly undemined by the sabotage signing on purely to defuse domestic opposition to maintaining the sanctions. Even that seems stupid as obviously Russia would know it had to be one of them and with Russia and all of NATO in on the "secret" how could they be confident that the secret wouldn't escape to the general public?

I guess the worst consequence of the Nordstrom sabotages seems to be that it means at least one major player or collection of players responsible for avoiding WW3 has added this additional stupidity to the collection of stupid acts we have witnessed from these players (especially Russia) since 24feb2022.

[The Mad Monk]