Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/13/from-only-professionals-to-closing-the-borders-for-draft-evaders

Putin is a flip-flopper.

So Putin is a liar. Shock! Surprise! Someone should tell Berz (but gently...he is soooo bought in on the murdering megalomaniac)

[BeBMan]

From ‘only professionals’ to closing the borders for draft evaders
A timeline of Russia’s official statements on who it’s sending to war

March 5, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that “only professionals — officers and contract soldiers — are taking part” in the “military operation” in Ukraine. He assures Russians that “not even a single conscript” is involved in the war and says the Russian authorities have no intention of deploying any. Putin thanks citizens who have reported to enlistment offices to volunteer, but he says “their help is currently not needed.” “And I’m confident we’re not going to need it,” he adds.

March 8, 2022

In his International Women’s Day address, Putin reiterates that mandatory service conscripts “are not participating in combat and are not going to.” He also vows that Russia will not draft soldiers from the reserves.

March 9, 2022

The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledges that there are conscripts fighting in the war. “Unfortunately, several instances of conscripts serving in units of the Russian Armed Forces and participating in the conduct of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine have been discovered,” reads the ministry’s statement. Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov says that several conscripts have been taken captive.

September 13, 2022

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that there will be no mobilization in Russia. “At the moment, no, this is not on the table,” he tells reporters. The previous day, Peskov declined to answer a question about mobilization and advised journalists to speak to the Defense Ministry. The ministry declined to comment.

September 21, 2022

Putin declares mobilization. He says the measure is necessary because Russia is now facing “the entire military machine of the collective West,” which seeks to “weaken, divide, and ultimately destroy our country.” At the same time, he maintains that the campaign is only a “partial mobilization.” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu says that 300,000 people will be called up, but the section of Putin’s official mobilization order that presumably contains the number of soldiers to be drafted is classified.

Putin assures Russians that the draft will primarily affect people who have undergone mandatory military service, who have a “military occupation specialty,” and who have relevant experience. In reality, the army called up numerous people who had no military experience at all, and many of them were sent to the battlefield without any training.

October 31, 2022

The Russian Defense Ministry declares that mobilization is complete. Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov says that no more draft orders will be served and that enlistment offices are returning to normal operations. At the same time, Putin does not issue a decree ending mobilization. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, will later say that the president has “consulted with lawyers” and determined that such a decree is legally unnecessary.

April 11, 2023

The Russian State Duma rushes through a set of amendments that make it significantly more difficult to evade military service. The legislation lays the groundwork for the creation of a digital registry of draft-eligible citizens and eliminates the requirement that a military summons be served in person, making it legal to issue draft orders online or by registered mail instead. It also deprives draft dodgers of numerous rights, making it illegal for them to leave the country, drive a car, buy property, and take out loans.

Dmitry Peskov says the changes are a necessary part of “refining the military registration system.” When asked whether the authorities will use electronic summonses if a second wave of mobilization is declared, he responds: “There will be no second wave.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/13/from-only-professionals-to-closing-the-borders-for-draft-evaders

Putin is a flip-flopper.

[-Jrabbit]

That was my thought.

[Berzerker]

I can't decide about the leaks either? Could it be disinformation? Is there anything that we know can't be disinformation and would harm Ukraine's allies?

a 3rd option, lying works to sell weapons so why not the truth? Winning or losing, Ukraine still needs weapons. From what I've heard the west doesn't have enough bombs and Ukraine doesn't have enough cannon fodder. There was nothing in the leak that will change Russia's plans other than possibly signaling the USA is closer to throwing in the towel. Glenn Greenwald thought it might be the Biden WH leaking it for several reasons, one being whistle blowers and the state dont typically leak the same way these days.

[Dinner]

The guy barely leaves his bunker and won't let anyone with in 30 meters of him because he is deathly afraid of COVID as well as being assassinated. So, no, he probably had no idea just how terrible his army was even though he is a big cause of the corruption and incompetence. The video covers this topic because Putin feared getting overthrown by a military coup so he made sure he replaced every high ranking officer with cronies who were corrupt and not very good at their basic jobs. Not to mention people didn't get promoted based upon merit or skill so you got a bunch of loyal but incompetent half wits who could afford to pay bribes for promotions because they literally stole everything not nailed down.

[PLATO]

One has to wonder what understanding Putin had of the real state of his military before he invaded. Hopefully the "no limits" partnership with China will include sharing Russian corruption techniques.

[BlackCat]

Back in the 1980'ies they were actually pretty good, but both optics and digital has improved quite a bit since then.
Totally forgot, temperature sensors has too.

[giblets]

Why are gun sights from the 1980s bad?

[Broken_Erika]

I bet most of the money spent developing the T-14 ended up going towards yachts and villas.

[Dinner]

Ha! The T-14 Armata sucks and probably never will enter production. It's engine is literally a Nazi tank engine from 1942 which has always been unreliable, the Russians are incapable of building a better modern one, none of its electronics works, it's sights are 1980's vintage French gun sights because Russia can't do any better, it's autoloader jams and there is no way to unjam it without returning to base. Just a piece of crap which doesn't work. Even the communist Chinese said is was junk not worth buying.

20 years after development began they only have eight prototypes all of whom regularly break down even when driven slowly in a propaganda parade.

https://youtu.be/-opSlCGLGQ4

[Dinner]

It sounds more like some lower ranked guy who played Mine Craft was trying to show off.

[Dinner]

The actual original war orders signed by Russian officials got leaked a few months back. Yes, they specifically stated all members of the Ukrainian executive branch were to be liquidated. You are completely wrong on this topic.

[BeBMan]

Berz' sources are so credible that he doesn't dare to reveal them.

[Geronimo]

Are the leaks from a whistle blower or the WH/Pentagon paving an off ramp?

I can't decide about the leaks either? Could it be disinformation? Is there anything that we know can't be disinformation and would harm Ukraine's allies?

[Berzerker]

Marcia Marcia Marcia