Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[N35t0r]

There were reports that most of the western-trained NCOs have already been KIA.


Also, Bakhmut has been a couple of days from falling to Russian troops for what? Five months already?

Truly top-notch superior military.

[-Jrabbit]

And you base yours on the words of a professional military propagandist LOL!

[PLATO]

Meh, the two wars can't really be compared. In Iraq there was a imminent air superiority, bad morale on one site and a vast difference in armor.
Ukraine is a bit different. None have air superiority and both parts are weary on using air force, morale is quite bigger on the Ukrainian site (they were attacked), but isn't as such lacking on the Russian site, and then they were pretty much on par with gun and armor quality.
The quality in leadership is where the big difference has been shown for the last year - russian soviet style versus nato intelligent troops is kind of baffling. Wonder what the Ukrainians can do when they outgrade russian armor.

Totally agree. My comments were in support of the comment that U.S. forces suffered WAY less than average attrition for an invading force. It wasn't just because the defenders fell apart. It was due to uncontested aerial superiority relentlessly pummeling them for two weeks that caused them to fall apart. Obviously not the case for either side in Ukraine.

I think your comments about Leadership are also spot on. For the last nine years Ukraine has worked hard to develop an NCO corp and small unit initiative. We see if paying off in the effectiveness of their military even when they are fighting at an equipment disadvantage. It will be very interesting to see what happens when all this NATO supplied armor is brought to bear in Ukrainian hands.

[PLATO]

I have met russians (russian writers) that have stood agaiunst putin and now their life is in danger




that I respect serb for being a patriot?

b!tch please

I don't respect Serb for being a patriot to a megalomaniac...just merely stated that he is one. Sad that he is in this case. At some point you have to put "right" above "country". This is clearly a case where he should. I have called Serb a coward and he is. Not because I think he fears conflict with the West, but because he cannot bring himself to do what he must deep inside know is right...and that is oppose this senseless war and the evil dictator driving it.

[BlackCat]

Not to mention a pretty effective precision bombing campaign on the few legitimate military formations in place prior to troops moving in.

Meh, the two wars can't really be compared. In Iraq there was a imminent air superiority, bad morale on one site and a vast difference in armor.
Ukraine is a bit different. None have air superiority and both parts are weary on using air force, morale is quite bigger on the Ukrainian site (they were attacked), but isn't as such lacking on the Russian site, and then they were pretty much on par with gun and armor quality.
The quality in leadership is where the big difference has been shown for the last year - russian soviet style versus nato intelligent troops is kind of baffling. Wonder what the Ukrainians can do when they outgrade russian armor.

[Bereta_Eder]

I have met russians (russian writers) that have stood agaiunst putin and now their life is in danger




that I respect serb for being a patriot?

b!tch please

[Bereta_Eder]

Maybe I'm more dumb

but I do know that serb wqants and is jealous of the west and is intimidated by it


I can write a who9le theseis on it

but he has chosen tofollow putin

there are far more braver souls than him

and I'm sad because I really liked him

[PLATO]

fairly intelligent.

he is dumb a a door knob

I yield to your superior knowledge!

[Bereta_Eder]

the poor f can't even pay vacatrions elsewhere than turkey

and yes he does have an idea of what the west is about

but he is frightned by it


so he becomes part of the dictatroship

let me say that again

part of the dictatorship

[Bereta_Eder]

. I suspect that Serb, also being fairly intelligent, does have his questions about what is going on but would never raise them with us.

fairly intelligent.

he is dumb a a door knob

but yeah he does have his questions

[PLATO]

No because there was virtually no resistance to the initial invasion. They literally just fell apart and ran away.

Not to mention a pretty effective precision bombing campaign on the few legitimate military formations in place prior to troops moving in.

[PLATO]

I might have originally expected that kind of ratio in Russia's favor. Russia had enormous advantages. However, like we've discussed before, now that we've seen Russia find it necessary to retreat from Kyiv, retreat from Kharkiv, retreat from Kherson, and take several months to seize Bhakmut as well as find much heavier Russian equipment losses than Ukraine on photograpic evidence sites like Oryx, it's hard to accept any numbers as plausible that give a ratio heavily in Russia's favor. How could Ukraine have pulled those successes off while bleeding heavier losses than the Russians?

I think it is clear to any impartial observer that Russia was completely unprepared for the operation they began. Clearly they have experienced extremely heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Since their population was not prepared for this possibility in advance, it is likely that they have resorted to outright lies to keep the populace from questioning Putin's strategy. Serb, being within the confines of the sphere of influence of State propaganda AND being a Patriot, easily consume and regurgitate these falsehoods with the certainty of truth. I suspect that Serb, also being fairly intelligent, does have his questions about what is going on but would never raise them with us.

[Dinner]

Did the Western attackers in Iraq or Afghanistan claim this 3:1 attacker:defender ratio of KIA?

No because there was virtually no resistance to the initial invasion. They literally just fell apart and ran away.

[Geronimo]

18K vs. 257K is average in your universe?

I might have originally expected that kind of ratio in Russia's favor. Russia had enormous advantages. However, like we've discussed before, now that we've seen Russia find it necessary to retreat from Kyiv, retreat from Kharkiv, retreat from Kherson, and take several months to seize Bhakmut as well as find much heavier Russian equipment losses than Ukraine on photograpic evidence sites like Oryx, it's hard to accept any numbers as plausible that give a ratio heavily in Russia's favor. How could Ukraine have pulled those successes off while bleeding heavier losses than the Russians?

[Geronimo]

Do you even realize that the attacker taking three KIA for every one defender KIA has been a pretty rock solid average from WW2 onward? This means Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is falling right into the well known average.

But feel free to tell yourself whatever lies you need to cope.

Did the Western attackers in Iraq or Afghanistan claim this 3:1 attacker:defender ratio of KIA?