Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

Unless there was an engine or guidance failure. Doesn't take much to make a missile go off in unwanted directions

Ok, this is starting to make sense now. According to the analyst at CNN the Ukrainian air defense fired a short range chaser air defense missile at an incoming Russian missile (maybe a short range Buk air defense missile). If the air defense missile hit the incoming missile then debris from the two missiles would land in an arc spreading out from the point were the two missiles hit each other. This debris then landed on the Polish border.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/11/16/poland-ukraine-russia-missile-strike-mike-lyons-cnntm-vpx.cnn

[Broken_Erika]

That doesn't really make sense as it would mean the Ukrainians fired in the opposite direction (west instead of east).

Unless there was an engine or guidance failure. Doesn't take much to make a missile go off in unwanted directions

[Dinner]

Most likely faulty Ukrainian missiles (of old russian design) according to latest news reports...
It appears even the Russians aren't stupid enough to try to loose faster than they are doing right now...

EDIT : doubly posty

That doesn't really make sense as it would mean the Ukrainians fired in the opposite direction (west instead of east).

[Dinner]

What are the chances that two "stray" missiles hit a grain solo and kill two people? Not good right?

Did they both hit the same area or just two missiles landed inside Poland in general? I heard on Perun (a high quality youtube channel from Australia; check it out because the guy does really good interestigations into hard data using government sources to try to show hard facts instead of opinions) that the 1960's era Soviet missile systems often can only hit with in 10-15km radishes of the target area.

Those types of era bars are OK on nuclear weapons but is wildly inaccurate compared to modern ballistic missiles. Hell, even Russia's most modern ballistic missiles have proven to be much, much less accurate than Russian propaganda had claimed.

[EPW]

Good call

[EPW]

best outcome. Unfortunately it'll be a propaganda point for Russia, and an embarrassment for Zelensky and Nato...not to mention the dead innocents...

[dannubis]

Most likely faulty Ukrainian missiles (of old russian design) according to latest news reports...
It appears even the Russians aren't stupid enough to try to loose faster than they are doing right now...

EDIT : doubly posty

[PLATO]

Well...it looks like it was a Ukrainian missile after all. NATO should retaliate by seizing Ukranian territory...like the Donbas and Crimea. That would teach them!

Seriously though...How the heck did a Ukrainian missile end up in Poland?

[BeBMan]

Whatever is decided should not interfere with Russia losing in Ukraine too much.

[N35t0r]

I would love it if NATO extended AA defense 3-400 km deep into Ukraine, 'to prevent possible future stray missiles'.

They could send longer ranged HIMARS missiles and tanks and F-16s as well.

[N35t0r]

Two out of two? Yes.

Two out of a couple hundred, when, as Oerdin mentions, they're really scraping the bottom of the barrel? More likely.

There was a video of Ukraine capturing a vintage T-62. Not modernized. No ERA.

[Dauphin]

I don’t expect any military response.

More equipment or troops redeployed to Poland is all I see.

[PLATO]

Poland "contemplating" invoking Article 4 of the NATO Treaty.

Article 4:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

[PLATO]

So I guess the real question is: Does it really matter if an attack on NATO was an accident in this case? How do you make sure it doesn't happen again? I think NATO has to respond. Russia just killed two Polish citizens on Polish territory. To let that pass without a cost allows Russia to assume that "accidents" are forgivable. I doubt those dead folks family feel that way...and NATO shouldn't either.

[Proteus_MST]

One missile malfunctioning, sure. But two at the same time to the same location? No way. A targeting error perhaps, but not a malfunction.

According to all I read, there was an ukrainian power station 20 kms away, which might have been the target of the missiles