Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Berzerker]

I dont think Afghanistan played a role in Ukraine, the war in the Donbas had been going on for 8 years and Putin already knew Biden's WH was populated by neocon cold warriors using Ukraine as a proxy for war with Russia. Now the way we left ofc was a disaster, I dont know why Biden handed security over to the Taliban before the evacuation. They weren't breathing down our necks like Saigon, they asked us for instructions and we told them to move in. Maybe we didn't have enough people to provide security, I'm sure we'll find out when the House investigates our withdrawal. Weapons lost, weapons built, Wall St didn't want the Pentagon retrieving equipment.

As for Trump and the Kurds, I dont think it was one of his better moments but it was inevitable, like leaving Afghanistan. Syrians had fled our war on Assad and millions were across the border in Turkey waiting to return, but Kurds were moving into those lands along the border. The Turks wanted Syrian refugees to return home and they didn't want the Kurds occupying those lands, so they told the Kurds to back off the border and they did. For all the hype about it I dont think it was a big issue.

[Berzerker]

Most of the country being fought over was already a war zone or occupied, most of the rest of Ukraine hasn't been bombed. This war is in eastern Ukraine and we already know how Kiev and Washington feels about eastern Ukrainians. Most of the money pouring into the war is not trickling down to foot soldiers, most is being siphoned off by grifters and weapons makers.

[BeBMan]

I think the Afghanistan withdrawal did play a role for Russia, but wile it wasn't exactly a proud moment, it's too easy to attribute it all to Biden. IIRC Trump did also abandon US allies (Kurds in Syria), for example. Both the US and Europe didn't really do much vs. Russia after 2014, sanctions became a bit harsher after the MH 17 thing, but where overall rather light compared what's been on now.

There were also no real consequence for Russia after killing various folks in Western Europe over years and even blowing up a Czech ammo depot in october 2014.

All of this just seemed to confirm Putin's "the west is weak and decadent, and I can do what I want without serious consequences" stance. Too bad he bought into his own propaganda.

[Jon Miller]

While I do think that Trump set Biden up for disaster, and I am a lot more concerned about our Afghan allies than the equipment, I agree that the Afghanistan pull-out was a black mark on Biden's presidency. Biden shares the blame there with Trump (and even Obama).

JM

[PLATO]

I honestly think it happened because of Biden abandoning Afghanistan, literally in the dead of night, without even telling the Afghans first. He also cut off all their ammo, financing, and air support. Then like an idiot he abandoned theor air fields first even though airfields are supposed to be last because you need them to get people and things out.

Putin saw that as a sign the U.S. was done fighting over seas wars and that he now had a window to act.

I think there is much truth in this. What an embarrassment. Just think what Ukraine could have done with the $85 billion in equipment we left behind. This will always be a great stain on Biden's legacy.

[N35t0r]

Most of the money is going to pay for Ukrainian salaries, or do you really think that the Ukrainian government is making a lot of taxes with 20% of the country occupied, most of it heavily bombarded, and a lot of its population either mobilized or a refugee?

[N35t0r]

The missile was an air defense missile. The only reason it was fired was because Russia is bombing Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. It is still Russia's fault.

[N35t0r]

It was all Adam and Eve's fault, you say?

[Uncle Sparky]

Guilty! Guilty! Guilty!

[Geronimo]

I think Putin thought trump would do the most damage to the West through Trump's incompetence if he left Trump to his own devices. I think he also may have felt that Trump was unpredictable and that Biden and European leaders were incredibly predictable.

That said, the 'weakness' of withdrawing from Afghanistan in such a reckless manner surely could have been read exactly as Dinner describes.

[Dinner]

I honestly think it happened because of Biden abandoning Afghanistan, literally in the dead of night, without even telling the Afghans first. He also cut off all their ammo, financing, and air support. Then like an idiot he abandoned theor air fields first even though airfields are supposed to be last because you need them to get people and things out.

Putin saw that as a sign the U.S. was done fighting over seas wars and that he now had a window to act.

[Berzerker]

I think that what he is trying to imply is that if the Ukrainians do something wrong, then it is a "mistake" and if the Russians do something wrong, then it is a "provocation".

This is faulty by the mere nature of Russia launching an unprovoked land-grabbing invasion and bears full responsibility for ALL "mistakes" and "provocations".

Additionally, the idea that the Trump Presidency delayed this invasion by 4 years is ludicrous unless you believe either Russian collusion theories or that the Russians feared Trump. Neither is likely imo. I think Mad Vlad reached a point where he truly thought he could walk over Ukraine and the West would grudgingly accept it. I don't think even he had any idea of the depths of corruption and mis-management present in the armed forces and procurement system. Dictatorial greed caught up with him.

The story was reported as a Russian attack on a Nato member, that was the 'mistake'. Keep making mistakes and a pattern appears, the media is lying to promote the war in Ukraine. Right after the report Biden demanded another ****load of $$$ for Ukraine. Where do you think that money is going? I think most of it is being laundered to enrich Wall St and the 2 parties, the world is a vampire. As for Trump and why Putin didn't invade, Trump wasn't shoving Nato down his throat and stopped arming Syrian terrorists to topple Assad. Days before Putin invaded Kamala was over there applauding Ukrainian efforts to join while Biden was telling Zelensky they couldn't but to lie so Putin wouldn't know.

[Berzerker]

Meaning you think in news stories only the Ukrainian side mistakes are seen but that Russia is seen to make none?

Sorry, I mean the news stories are propaganda and the one sided nature of their 'mistakes' proves it. The fact Russian TV has been banned and critics of the war silenced or attacked as traitors shows good faith is not part of the equation...and thats more revealing than the news stories.

[PLATO]

I think that what he is trying to imply is that if the Ukrainians do something wrong, then it is a "mistake" and if the Russians do something wrong, then it is a "provocation".

This is faulty by the mere nature of Russia launching an unprovoked land-grabbing invasion and bears full responsibility for ALL "mistakes" and "provocations".

Additionally, the idea that the Trump Presidency delayed this invasion by 4 years is ludicrous unless you believe either Russian collusion theories or that the Russians feared Trump. Neither is likely imo. I think Mad Vlad reached a point where he truly thought he could walk over Ukraine and the West would grudgingly accept it. I don't think even he had any idea of the depths of corruption and mis-management present in the armed forces and procurement system. Dictatorial greed caught up with him.

[Uncle Sparky]

".. and so are the people who created the situation..." except the ones who manufactured the guns. They are pure of heart.