This is the end? (Hillary)

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
As for the EC math, I didn't believe it myself, but it's true.

Clinton has California, New York, Florida, Michigan, Texas, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Oklahoma.

55+34+31+27+21+20+17+15+12+11+11+10+7+6+5+5+4+3. 303 EC votes.

(Without Michigan and Florida) 259 EC votes out of 249 needed to win.

Obama has Illinois, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Washington, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Alaska, Hawaii and DC.

21+15+15+13+11+11+10+10+9+9+9+9+8+7+7+6+6+5+4+4+3+ 3+3+3+3+2+2. 208 EC votes.

[Ramo]

Yes she is, by 68k currently

I'd like to see you try to substantiate that.

[Ben Kenobi]

Barack Obama Illinois 383,317 66.7% 16,498,584 47.54% 1,523 41.5%

Hillary Clinton New York 179,604 31.2% 16,566,894 47.74% 1,392 37.9%

How is it proportionate representation if Obama who has 47.5 percent of the vote has 41.5 percent of the delegates?

Those numbers should be exactly the same if the Democrats sincerely believe in proportionate representation.

I'm sorry, I just don't 'get' the hype over Obama. He hasn't proven by any measure, including delegates to be significantly stronger then Hillary.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Yes she is, by 68k currently, and she'll stay ahead by the time the convention rolls around.

No she isn't. All the media agree's she's behind by every metric. Of course the only metric which matters is the delegate count and she's still 160 behind with no chance of catching up.

There are 217 elected delegates left to grab and they'll be split almost 50-50. That means of the 270 uncommited super delegates obama just needs 72 to cinch the whole thing. Do you think hillary can get 70% of the super delegates to swing her way when she's out of cash, is behind in delegates, is behind in the popular vote, and WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY behind in fund raising?

She's not just broke but $10 million in debt with no cash on hand. She's done.

[Ramo]

Barack Obama Illinois 383,317 66.7% 16,498,584 47.54% 1,523 41.5%

Hillary Clinton New York 179,604 31.2% 16,566,894 47.74% 1,392 37.9%

sub·stan·ti·ate Audio Help /səbˈstænʃiˌeɪt/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[suhb-stan-shee-eyt] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–verb (used with object), -at·ed, -at·ing.
1. to establish by proof or competent evidence: to substantiate a charge.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Barack Obama Illinois 383,317 66.7% 16,498,584 47.54% 1,523 41.5%

Hillary Clinton New York 179,604 31.2% 16,566,894 47.74% 1,392 37.9%

How is it proportionate representation if Obama who has 47.5 percent of the vote has 41.5 percent of the delegates?

Those numbers should be exactly the same if the Democrats sincerely believe in proportionate representation.

Nobody said the vote percentage and delegate percentage would be perfect matches, as each state has its own local rules as to how to apportion their delegates, some more convoluted than others. "Proportional representation" is meant mainly to distinguish from the fundamentally different EC math that the GOP continues to use, and that the DNC most unequivocally no longer uses. If you'd care to educate yourself, the DNC rules are a matter of public record:

http://www.democrats.org/page/-/dem_convention/rules.pdf

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Didn't we just have 8 years of a trained monkey?

7 1/3

[Ben Kenobi]

There are 217 elected delegates left to grab and they'll be split almost 50-50. That means of the 270 uncommited super delegates obama just needs 72 to cinch the whole thing. Do you think hillary can get 70% of the super delegates to swing her way when she's out of cash, is behind in delegates, is behind in the popular vote, and WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY behind in fund raising?

I did the numbers myself last night.

60 percent in all the remaining primaries, and 70 percent of the remaining supers gives Hillary the victory.

If there were more states that lean Obama, I would agree with you, but I think it is premature to say that she is out.

As for the popular vote counts, good luck. I see different places all over counting them in different ways.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

gives a 68k lead for Hillary, after Indiana and NC.

Obama +87,823 +0.25%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Gives a 87k lead for Obama.

It seems to me they are essentially tied in the popular vote count.

[Darius871]

...and since when did the popular vote count decide the primary according to DNC rules? Your own source shows a 131-delegate lead in Obama's favor.

[Ramo]

As for the popular vote counts, good luck. I see different places all over counting them in different ways.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

gives a 68k lead for Hillary, after Indiana and NC.

They are wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote_count.html

Gives a 87k lead for Obama.

No. It doesn't. That number is only valid if you give Obama no Michigan votes (in reality, it's an even state), and omit IA, NV, ME, and WA. Which makes it a silly number.

And even in the silliest, most pro-Clinton count possible, your original claim is nonsense.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Gives a 87k lead for Obama.

It seems to me they are essentially tied in the popular vote count.

Except by their own agreement Michigan and Florida don't count because they broke the rules. Even if you count it then you still have to problem that several caucus states don't have popular votes so that metric is meaningless (even though Obama still leads in it). The only honest metric which the party recognizes is the delegate count and she's down by 160 with no chance of catching up.

She can keep spending her own money just to say she isn't out but everyone knows she's toast.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I am an annoying idiot

yes

[Imran Siddiqui]

Sorry to break up the Ben is bat**** crazy about American politics discussion (seriously, why even respond to him?), but

Hillary

And for all the folks saying that when Clinton's supporters get over it, Obama will have a huge lead, remember that this early in the race, the Republican has usually been well behind the Democrat. George H.W. Bush was behind Dukakis by double digits, GW Bush was behind big to Gore and Kerry at this time in the campaign.

The fact that McCain is so close right now should be worrisome for Obama because history shows that the Republican gains a lot of votes between now and the November.

[Ben Kenobi]

Your own source shows a 131-delegate lead in Obama's favor.

True, which may or may not vary according to the Superdelegates.

I agree that I don't see Obama's lead in pledged delegates changing very much, but I can see several things happening.

1. Hillary will pick up quite a few delegates in KY and WV, and lose some again in Oregon. She'll probably end up +10 or so delegates.

2. She'll win big in PR and pick up another 10 delegates.

3. Montana and SD will be tossups, and throw a few more delegates obama's way.

I think the final count will be around 130-140 lead for Obama. The question then will be what happens at the convention? I think Florida and Michigan will get seated at the convention. Democrats won't want the publicity of disenfranchising Florida after what happened in 2000.

That will bring the count down maybe another 20 or so to 120 delegates. I think if Hillary can get within 100 delegates then the convention will be a real tossup.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by rah
Especially if he doesn't shut up. Which is quite likely

Only if he doesn't shut up. The issue is already fading fast.