This is the end? (Hillary)

[chequita guevara]

Florida disenfranchised itself. It was established well before Florida voted to change the election date that any state which moved up their election before a certain date would lose its delegates. Florida and Michigan both did, both states should remain unseated. If they seat the delegates, it will open a free for all with states moving their primaries up into the previous year before the election, and we really don't want that.

[Dinner]

It's not like it's just the Democrats with this rule either. Even the Republicans have taken away 50% of the delegates from those states for breaking the rules.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

... I think Florida and Michigan will get seated at the convention. Democrats won't want the publicity of disenfranchising Florida after what happened in 2000.

But without a valid election, the only viable method of seating these delegates is to split them 50/50 between Obama and Hillary. If instead, say, Hillary were to be granted the lioness's share of them, the Obama folks will scream "unfair, unfair!"

[Darius871]

Not necessarily if it's undisputed that Hillary would have had at least X% of MI and FL votes. Even if you use the low-end estimates she still was supposed to win both. It'd be a stupid gamble for the DNC to try it though.

[Ramo]

George H.W. Bush was behind Dukakis by double digits, GW Bush was behind big to Gore and Kerry at this time in the campaign.

Bush was consistently ahead of Gore until the Convention in September.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

Kerry was looking fine in May of '04 because a host of factors unique to that election and candidate, but he was never up "big" on a consistent basis.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[-Jrabbit]

McCain should offer the VP slot to Hillary. He'd win in a landslide.

[Ben Kenobi]

it will open a free for all with states moving their primaries up into the previous year before the election, and we really don't want that.

It's not the voters either that did wrong in Florida or in Michigan. The party leaders in both Michigan and Florida should have been canned. As it is the 'solution' disenfranchises every single democrat in both states, who have done nothing wrong at all.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


It's not the voters either that did wrong in Florida or in Michigan. The party leaders in both Michigan and Florida should have been canned. As it is the 'solution' disenfranchises every single democrat in both states, who have done nothing wrong at all.

For Michigan perhaps.
Florida's primary was moved up by an act of the Republican-run State Legislature.

[Apocalypse]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


7 1/3

This is why Dems like Oerdin should not control the economy.

[Dinner]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5sX-WakFq8

One of her attack dogs gave her up as well.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


For Michigan perhaps.
Florida's primary was moved up by an act of the Republican-run State Legislature.

That's why they should seat Florida but not Michigan. Michigan's move was blessed by their Democratic lower house and their Democratic governor. These are the people the "disenfranchised" Democratic voters elected -- looks like they made some bad choices but, hey, that's democracy. It's not up to the DNC to overturn the poorly-considered decision of the party's own duly-elected members.

Frankly, it would be interesting to know how many rank-and-file Dems contacted their Michigan reps once the DNC issued its ultimatum and told them "don't disenfranchise us! Don't move up the primary!" My guess is, not many, and certainly not the number who are whining about it now.

It's also a measure of the insufferable hubris of the Clinton campaign (for which they are now paying, in Greek tragedy fashion) that they didn't apply pressure to Michigan and Florida to hold off, knowing that those were states Hillary was likely to win. But they couldn't fathom that Hillary might actually need two of the largest states in the union, since her coronation nomination was a sure thing. Hillary's drive to seat Florida and Michigan, after publicly supporting the DNC's decision, is one of the two things that have turned me from an ardent Hillary supporter to an Obama voter in a few short months (the other is the absurd spectacle of a posh-suburban-reared, Seven-Sister/Ivy-League-educated millionaire corporate lawyer running as a populist. Her me-too-ism on the gas tax has sealed the deal, though I had voted by the time she pulled that nonsense).

[Impaler[WrG]]

I think the most likely scenario for FL and MI is getting seated at a half vote a piece, the same punishment the Republicans enacted. Full forgiveness and seating of the delegations is simply impossible because the Dems can always match the Republicans penalty without suffering any harm so theirs no reason to 'give in' any more to those doing the protesting.

That scenario would cut into Obama's lead by something like 40 delegates which is not nearly enough to make a difference considering the lead is at least 160.


Also I see a ton of people seem to have bought into the "McCain is a Moderate Republican" BS. McCain's stances are conservative on most issues, he has only three positions that could arguably called moderate. First he is some what green (a political necessity in Arizona) though any Dem is greener. Second hes taken some good positions on Campaign Finance (adopted after he was involved in Corruption scandals mind you), though again Dems are better on these issue across the board, Obama in particular. Lastly his stance on the Immigration reform measures again a political necessity if your from Arizona.

The pattern is clear the 'moderate' positions are all opportunistic grafted onto a world view which is solidly conservative which explains why he's de-empathized them or explicitly renounced them (immigration for example) when it was politically valuable to do so. The only thing he REALLY seems to stand up for is the Iraq war, so by all means if you really want more of that and possibly a war with Iran as well vote McCain.

[asleepathewheel]

He's also in favor of embryonic stem cell research

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
I would be shocked if Hillary would accept a VP slot. I fully expect a reassuringly bland but experienced white-haired guy to fill that role.

FWIW, Fred Barnes (who, yes, is one of Satan's minions, but he's at least bright) writing in they Weekly Standard today has suggested that the ideal Obama veep would be Ed Rendell -- bland, white, a good campaigner, a Clinton ally, and a guy who has proven appeal to Clinton's constituency. It's an interesting suggestion.

[Timexwatch]

There isn't a chance Obama would pick Hillary; like Rufus just said, if they feel the need to placate her they'll pick a Clinton crony for the VP spot. She could be an effective hatchewoman, but Hillary and Bill will be looking for an opportunity to bury that hatchet in Obama so that he's a one-termer.