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  • #766
    Election Update: Clinton’s Texas Opportunity (And Her Texas Problem)
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-texas-opportunity-and-her-texas-problem/
    Another day, another traditionally Republican state that Donald Trump could shockingly manage to lose. Yesterday, I wrote about Utah, where Trump’s weakness wit…


    Nate Silver has a great article on Texas. The most interesting thing which is driving Texas to slowly become a swing state isn't just the minorities... but also the increasing number of college educated white voters. Texas is trending towards California's political outlook. They are what we were 25-30 years ago. SurveyMonkey/WAPO did that multiple state poll again... but only 15 states now. (And before Ben types up a lot of drivel - your state is going liberal sorry lol!)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-clear-advantage-in-new-battleground-polls/2016/10/18/2885e3a0-94a6-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html


    https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/im...Eeacrio1dOKWpg - Huge image... sorry.

    Texas is now ranked as "toss up" and Trump only leads 48%-46%. They had some weird ones on there though like with Nevada, when a Monmouth poll gave Hillary a +7% lead. But Georgia is interesting as it gives Clinton a +4% advantage.

    Trump has collapsed in Southern states. I think he simply pissed off voters in many of those states.

    My favorite quote from Nate Silver's article:

    In 2012, President Obama lost the South (as defined by the Census Bureau) by 7 percentage points. This year — according to our polls-only projections as of mid-afternoon on Tuesday — Clinton is losing the South to Trump by only 1 point.
    Unbelievable.

    If these numbers really hold up, the republicans may have to disband and start over again... like the Whigs.

    BTW. Ted Cruz is in trouble. His disapproval ratings have shot up.
    Last edited by Giancarlo; October 18, 2016, 21:13.
    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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    • #767
      Ted Cruz is in trouble. His disapproval ratings have shot up.
      Sounds like a bet to me.

      Avatar bet on Cruz holding his Senate seat?
      Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
      "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
      2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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      • #768
        Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
        Sounds like a bet to me.

        Avatar bet on Cruz holding his Senate seat?
        Well that won't be until 2018.

        Funny how you don't respond to anything else. Convenient fool.
        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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        • #769
          Originally posted by Giancarlo View Post
          If these numbers really hold up, the republicans may have to disband and start over again... like the Whigs.
          Despite it being a great opportunity for the Dems, its actually also a bigger danger for them than the Republicans. While those states were gradually shifting blue as the demographics change, they're now about to get a big jump forward due to the Trump factor. If the Dems win it's then vitally important that they actually win over the people in those states by addressing the real issues in their lives.

          If they **** it up, then those people who voted GOP for their entire lives will have absolutely no problem going back to doing it again, and the Dems gains could well be seriously set back by years. The Dems need to handle it extremely carefully, and not give off any impression of gloating or insulting the moderate conservatives out there.

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          • #770
            I might die of laughter if Texas goes blue.
            To us, it is the BEAST.

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            • #771
              It probably won't happen but it will be close I think.

              Arizona has a bigger probability. Hillary is +5% in a recent poll there done by a conservative newspaper.
              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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              • #772
                So I have a question for all of your crystal balls... will Tim Kaine ever be president?
                To us, it is the BEAST.

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                • #773
                  Maybe in 2024 after Hillary's second term is up. Lol.
                  For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                  • #774
                    It is almost like a double standard. The last few times that a party only won one state it was a Dem who lost. It hasn't happened to a repug since back in the FDR years. I guess that means that the DEMS are more reasonable and recognize when their candidate sucks so much worse. The Repugs hang in there no matter how much the stench. MAYBE FINALLY this year will prove it differently.
                    It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                    RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                    • #775
                      Originally posted by Giancarlo View Post
                      Maybe in 2024 after Hillary's second term is up. Lol.
                      Unless the US becomes paradise, I'm betting she'll be a one time president.
                      I don't see how actually winning is going to make her more lovable.
                      It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                      RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                      • #776
                        It depends on whether the Republicans continue to implode or not.

                        JM
                        Jon Miller-
                        I AM.CANADIAN
                        GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                        • #777
                          Michael Moore is worried. He is convinced that large swaths of the Midwest are filled with Trump voters who lie to pollsters out of shame.
                          “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                          ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

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                          • #778
                            On the one hand, Moore is a silly hack who (IIRC) was sure Romney would win. On the other, this is a seriously weird election. As I've said two bajillion times before, the very fact that it has come down to such a bizarre contest in the first place should be cause for worry. Four years ago, Trump was a pathetic also-ran in the primaries. We always complain that we have two terrible alternatives, but it really isn't typical for a majority of the electorate to hold unfavorable views of both candidates . . . is it?
                            1011 1100
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                            • #779
                              Moore may just be saying that so democrats don't get complacent.

                              Edit: One thing I do doubt is that Trump supporters are lying out of shame. No. They aren't like that at all. I even think polls understate how much support Hillary really has.
                              Last edited by Giancarlo; October 19, 2016, 14:18.
                              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                              Comment

                              • #780
                                Originally posted by rah View Post
                                It is almost like a double standard. The last few times that a party only won one state it was a Dem who lost. It hasn't happened to a repug since back in the FDR years. I guess that means that the DEMS are more reasonable and recognize when their candidate sucks so much worse. The Repugs hang in there no matter how much the stench. MAYBE FINALLY this year will prove it differently.
                                I don't think there's ever been an election where the Repugs only won one state. Even Alf Landon managed to get 2 states in 1936.

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