Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Giancarlo]

Trump with around 400 LMAO. That's a far cry from ever happening. That would require him winning some deeply blue states. He'll be lucky to even get around 250.

I want Hillary to win with 400. But looking at the polls she'll probably win with around 330-350.

And what socialist? Bernie Sanders isn't the nominee.

[Dinner]

I am suspicious that Bernie would be in a similar position. I voted and supported him, and think he has as good of shot as Hillary. It was an easy decision to back him over Hillary.

A Biden or O'Malley would have demolished Trump. I would have had to think more about pragmatism versus idealism in those cases.

JM

The polls disagree and showed Bernie 15 points up on Trump with Hillary tied in the margin of error. That still seems to be true.

[Dinner]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.al.com/articles/19025349/donald_trump_vs_hillary_clinto_7.amp?client=ms-android-verizon

The composite polls are all showing a dead heat (which other posters have already spoken about and even showed a map) so please pontificate less and listen more and maybe you will learn something, Giancarlo.

[Dinner]

RCP's composite poll is showing Clinton at +0.4 points with the margin of error being +/-3 points. 538 has almost the same exact numbers in their composite. 538 even breaks down polls by state which is where Guy got the map her previously posted.

[notyoueither]

I'm thinking Trump by a narrow margin.

[kentonio]

If there's actually any truth to the stuff about Trump being in Putins pocket, I wouldn't put it past them to manufacture some national security scare around late October. Anything like that could tip the election unless the wheels come off in a big way before then.

[SlowwHand]

I'd take the Socialist Sanders over Hillary, Mr. ESL.

[Giancarlo]

The polls disagree and showed Bernie 15 points up on Trump with Hillary tied in the margin of error. That still seems to be true.

Bernie hasn't been subjected to 30 years of baseless attacks. If he was the nominee, his support would have fell.

[Giancarlo]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.al.co...ndroid-verizon

The composite polls are all showing a dead heat (which other posters have already spoken about and even showed a map) so please pontificate less and listen more and maybe you will learn something, Giancarlo.

You are lying. Trumps bounce has totally evaporated and Hillary is bouncing back. Two polls say 5-6%. I suspect that will increase after Trump insulted that late veteran.

By the way speaking of pontificating you do that on here on a daily basis. Lying about what I have said and doing the same **** Ben did in that thread about the Pope and gay people.

What you didn't say is that Trump has fallen to the mid 30s in the polls where Hillary leads. Seems to be a pattern.

[Giancarlo]

I'm going to revise what I have said. I think she will get in the upper 300s. She has a good chance at taking Georgia and some other traditionally republican states where Trump polls poorly for a republican.

[Thoth]

.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

I have Hillary at over 400.

Yo - I'm the other one, though I'm openly engaging in sunny optimism. It's just no choice at all, or however it was Senator Sanders put it, and definitely not coming at it all as a Clinton fanboi.

-Just, I really hope and want to believe that the electorate is not so committed to playing with their own poop when the vote's for keepsies in November. I voted against Mrs. Clinton in the primaries with enthusiasm; now I'm going to vote for her with equal enthusiasm - and just not follow the news too closely for another four years, being still burned out on the eternal shrill hating from the last time...

[giblets]

.

yep

[Jon Miller]

Honestly, the key questions are:
1. Does the turnout among uneducated whites sky rocket?
2. Does the turnout among 'minorities' (blacks and hispanics) remain at the levels from 2008/2012?
3. Do the educated whites Republicans back Trump?

JM

[Dinner]

I don't see the black turn out being as high without Obama on the ticket. It will probably go back down to the historical average. Hispanic turn out is a big question mark as it could go either way; traditionally hispanic turn out hasn't been great though Trump's rhetoric might actually get a decent number of them to show up and vote against him. So what does that leave? Asians, a few native Americans, and a small percentage of religious minorities? Republicans will probably get 70%-80% of the white vote unless young people show up but Hillary doesn't seem to inspire them the way Bernie could.