Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Jon Miller]

So I expect some will vote for their prediction, others will vote for the prediction given by 538 and such places, and still others will vote (and change the vote) so that the apolyton prediction matches the current predicted distribution at 538.

JM

[BeBMan]

Other: Obama pulls an Erdogan shortly before Nov

[kentonio]

I was really tempted to say Clinton by less than 300, but I'm going with the more optimistic line that there won't be any major incidents before Nov.

[SlowwHand]

Now THAT'S humorous.

[Proteus_MST]

Trump will win, of course ... after all we are talking about voters who elected George Bush jr. for a second term

[Dauphin]

Trump in a landslide.

Will be made to look like an accident.

[BlackCat]

And then put Das Reichstag Congress on fire and declares martial law

[Giancarlo]

Hillary... with perhaps around 300-320 electoral votes. Roughly. You don't win elections with poll numbers dropping down to the mid 30s.

[Lorizael]

Ugh. Really tempted to revise this poll so that it goes from Clinton 400+ to Trump 400+. Hard to read at a glance the way it is now.

[Elok]

I suspect Deeply ****ty Candidate will win out over Really Quite Astonishingly ****ty Candidate by a narrow margin, but even that's up in the air. It depends on how much more gets leaked about Hillary compared to the increasingly rare incidences of Trump finding a way to still shock people into finding him revolting in a whole new way. Right now he just unleashed a doozy--said the soldier's mom at the DNC didn't talk about her dead kid because her Muslim husband wouldn't let her. That's probably actually disgusting enough to break through the ennui and hurt his ratings for a while. But I'm not sure how he can get worse from there, and when you got to national prominence by being a giant human-shaped pile of feces there's a limit to how much difference further application of feces will make.

[Dinner]

It will be very close either way. Right now the polls show a toss up. Congratulations Democratic Party. The Republicans gave you an unelectable candidate and you managed to find the only possible candidate who polls in a dead heat with him.

And Giancarlo is shocked people are considering third party options?

[Jon Miller]

I am suspicious that Bernie would be in a similar position. I voted and supported him, and think he has as good of shot as Hillary. It was an easy decision to back him over Hillary.

A Biden or O'Malley would have demolished Trump. I would have had to think more about pragmatism versus idealism in those cases.

JM

[Giancarlo]

It will be very close either way. Right now the polls show a toss up. Congratulations Democratic Party. The Republicans gave you an unelectable candidate and you managed to find the only possible candidate who polls in a dead heat with him.

And Giancarlo is shocked people are considering third party options?

What a dreamer. That isn't true at all. Hillary is definitely electable and you're pretty much overstating the value of the third party options. Not a toss up. Hillary has a major advantage in the electoral college, regardless of what polls say. And you being the troll you are somehow try to bash me in a post, when I didn't even say anything to you. Do you have any more fiction you want to share with us?

Dead heat... bull****.

[Ben Kenobi]

I have Hillary at over 400.

[SlowwHand]

Yeah, Socialist or habitual liar.
Frankly, I'd take the Socialist.
As it is, I'll say Trump with around 400.