Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[kentonio]

like the one you said told about Obama..being well respected....

Humerously, regardless of who wins the election, even conservatives are going to be looking back wistfully at eight years of Obama.

[ZEE]

I also really miss Kidicious, you guise.

[Dinner]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Trump is up by six points and even Virginia is in the margin of error. Hillary better unscrew her campaign and actually get off of her butt.

[giblets]

"Snowden Says He'll Vote in US Presidential Election"

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/snowden-vote-presidential-election-42132847

The American Civil Liberties Union, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International are behind the campaign to pardon him.

Kenneth Roth, HRW's executive director, was on the panel of the Athens conference, and described the effort as "an uphill battle."

"What we're hoping is that after the election when Obama is in his final months in office — at that stage he can begin to do something that are appropriate as a matter of conscience but politically difficult," Roth told the AP.

Because **** democracy

[KrazyHorse]

At this point, looks like trump might be ahead - may be temporary bounce from the weekend attacks?

[giblets]

A year ago everyone would have laughed at the idea of Trump becoming president

we're screwed

[Ming]

So true....

However, I'm not concerned about any national polls... it's the swing states that really matter.
On an electoral basis, Trump is still screwed.

[Aeson]

As long as Trump acts like every politician and doesn't do anything he's promised to do we'll be just fine.

[Uncle Sparky]

I still bet Trump will win.

[KrazyHorse]

So true....

However, I'm not concerned about any national polls... it's the swing states that really matter.
On an electoral basis, Trump is still screwed.

Trump may have a slight electoral edge vs natl polls...

[Ming]

You will have to prove that one... everything I've seen shows he doesn't have enough states to win.

[KrazyHorse]

Take a look at 538 - they are nationally projecting trump 1-2 points back, but have multiple states within that margin that could put him over the top (NH and CO most notably)

Tbc, bc Giancarlo brought it up - trump is not my candidate; I think he is the closest thing to a loose cannon in the white house I've ever seen. I also think hillary is a dishonest piece of ****, and believe that the two candidates are by far the worst I've ever seen.

[Ben Kenobi]

Trump is not ahead. Clinton is still up 3.7 percent in Colorado, and 3.5 percent in Virginia. She is also up slightly in Florida. Poll aggregate has Clinton up a percent and a half.

Trump would also be an unprecedented winner. He has lead a total of 8 days in the race. 4 days in May, and 4 days in July. No president has been elected with that losing profile, save Truman - who turned it around on Election day.

The bulk of the profile suggests that Clinton has sufficient electoral momentum to carry her through. In most contested elections (Kennedy-Nixon, Ford-Carter, Carter-Reagan, Bush-Dukakis, Clinton-Bush, Bush-Gore, Bush-Kerry, Obama-McCain, you have swaps between the frontrunner. In most uncontested elections - you'll see one candidate winning all or almost all polls. The poll aggregate suggests that Clinton will outperform Obama in 2012 and in 2008.

[Ben Kenobi]

One other thing, Trump has about a 25 percent chance of winning. 25 percent chance in either Colorado OR Virginia, and a 50 percent chance in Florida. This has ticked up - with him now being up in Nevada

[Ben Kenobi]

Also, it looks like Hillary's floor is the 43.2 percent she posted in May. Trump's ceiling is the 45.7 he put up at the convention.

Trump's ceiling is higher than Clinton in 1992, Wilson in 1912, Lincoln in 1860, Buchanan in 1856, Jackson in 1824, and that is it.

So 5 elections would give Trump a winning margin. I don't see it. Unless Johnson continues gaining strength, I don't see it.

Hillary has only hit 50+ in March of this year. So both candidates are terribly weak.