Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Elok]

An interesting (non-boob) consideration that doesn't get brought up much: if you were planning to vote for Trump, would you admit it to a pollster? Given that the pollster is probably conducting a poll for a major media organization, and said MMO has probably spent the past several weeks running HOLY COW IS TRUMP HIGH OR WHAT stories? Nobody expected the damn Brexit either.

With that said, Clinton is pulling nicely ahead (+4 or so) , so the next trough would have to hit quite sharply for Trump to pull even with her by Election Day. His best hope is that the polls are not representing his true support.

[rah]

A poorly timed major terrorist attack could help him.

[Lorizael]

Well, one of the pillars of Trumpism is telling it like it is and not being politically correct. So Trump supporters who hide their opinions from pollsters are hypocrites and thus not true Trumpians anyway.

[rah]

Will any polynuts actually vote for him? Based on posts, it seems that no one is. (or did I miss one)
Or are they lying.

[Lorizael]

Gramps, I think.

[rah]

Hmm, I assumed he was joking.

[Lorizael]

And I assumed Trump was joking when he said he was running.

[rah]

I did too WAY back when and figured a vote for him would be a great protest vote.
But that was long ago before he proved just how bad of a candidate he was.

I'm still convinced he's only doing it to make money. His campaign has funneled so much money into his family businesses that its hard to believe that wasn't the plan from the beginning. He could be the first candidate to make money running for president.

[-Jrabbit]

An interesting (non-boob) consideration that doesn't get brought up much: if you were planning to vote for Trump, would you admit it to a pollster?

I think there are just as many in the opposite camp - women who will vote for Hillary but can't admit it to their husbands/friends.

When I decide to talk to pollsters (who are calling constantly now, even in IL), I tell them I'd be happy to give them 5 minutes, but that 50% of my responses will be lies. Interestingly, while some go away at that point (and rightfully so), the vast majority go ahead and start asking their questions. Tells me a lot.

[Elok]

I honestly don't see female solidarity as that strong, outside of the limited sphere of very conscious feminists who are firmly in the Hillary camp already. It's my experience that much of what some call the patriarchal oppression of women is carried out by women themselves, against other women. They're just as trained in the culture as their husbands, after all.

OTOH, have you seen a progressive author of any sort analyzing why Hillary isn't more strongly in the lead against a nutcase, and coming up with an even theoretically defensible reason for not wanting to vote Dem this election? I haven't. I've seen lots of "racist/sexist/deplorable," some "poor white trash, they don't know any better," some "white privilege scared of losing its top slot," and most recently, from the Atlantic, "they hate Hillary as a convoluted means of justifying their otherwise unjustifiable support for Trump." There's a tremendous amount of self-satisfied phony soul-searching going on. Even I, who am quite convinced that Hillary would be vastly preferable, kind of want to see it all burn just to stick it to these insufferable ****s. Just a little.

[C0ckney]

well then, elok, you know what you must do.

it's time to make america great again.

[Elok]

No, no, I understand the flawed thinking involved; I shouldn't place my desire to spite deeply irritating people above the good of the nation. Though I'm not silly enough to think it's worth the bother of voting either way. Maybe if I lived in a hotly contested state with a population of ten and one electoral vote . . .

[-Jrabbit]

I don't pretend to have any special insight on this election. It's entirely possible that the residents of the most advantaged, powerful nation in the world will collectively decide let this bully/sociopath to burn it all down. It beggars belief.

It boils down to feelings/emotion vs facts and logic IMHO. Facts and logic debunk everything Trump stands for and appeals to.

The fact that it may not be enough to keep him out of power is absolutely insane.

[Elok]

I'm really not sure what a Trump presidency would entail. I suspect he would keep some of his campaign promises by default, as he appears temperamentally incapable of the kind of sustained attention or long-term planning that, say, a foreign war would entail. A president as deeply inept as he appears to be could well lead to a substantial boost to the power of our legislative branch, which our country could use. I don't think we need to put all that much energy into antagonizing Russia or pretending to be friends with the vile Saudis, either. OTOH, he might prove to be terribly competent at cronyist looting and subversion. Probably best to stay the course with Hillary, AKA Obama sans restraint and charisma. Sigh.

[-Jrabbit]

That very lack of predictability is the problem.

"Make America Great Again" is neither a plan nor a promise. It's an empty slogan that invites the disaffected to remember a better life, and to believe that when Donald Trump says "trust me," he will magically make that nebulous nirvana happen. Somehow, vast acres of American idiots swallow his "you know what I mean" subtext as a substitute for actual policies and plans.

It's more than a little scary.

As for Hillary, I regard her as the devil I know. At least she has policies and positions. I know, for instance, that she will help usher me into my dotage with social security and Medicare firmly in place. In terms of enlightened self-interest, favoring a Clinton presidency is a no-brainer for me.