Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Elok]

Oh, no, it's another thingy showing us Trump as a revolting excuse for a human being. Well, that'll be the clincher. The first eighty-seven times were just a warm-up. Posturing after a nightclub shooting, mocking the disabled, critical reporters are just on the rag, the father of a dead soldier gags his wife, ban all Muslims, build a giant wall to keep out Mexicans, hey look it's 3 AM and I'm tweeting some **** about a beauty queen . . . and now this, THIS will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

[Giancarlo]

Well... Trump had a habit of shaking certain comments and antics off, but this is the type of thing that will resonate among women. I believe Mitt Romney won a slight majority of married women (though he lost the voting bloc overall). I believe a majority of married women are against Trump. This will really get women fired up and voting. And this is the worst possible time for this tape to come out (at least for potty mouth). Early voting is already commencing. People are already voting.

Great way to fire people up and Clinton is using this to her advantage big time. Great way to sink Trump in states like Ohio too.

Pence had his own Trump moment too... whipping out that Mexican thing? Dumbass. I think he did that intentionally.

[Elok]

People already knew he was a toss-rag. He's built his entire career since 2000 or so being a professional, visible, excruciatingly public toss-rag.

And you're missing the forest for the trees. When Trump falls (which he will, before or after the election), that will be the opportunity for someone else, someone without his horrendous and obvious liabilities, to take over leadership of the GOP. Their party may ultimately be stronger for having finally cast off Reaganism before yours wakes up to its own failings. The military-industrial and big-money parasites have latched just as firmly onto the Dems as they once latched onto the GOP. The main thing distinguishing your party from Reagan's is the culture-war bull****, which no longer serves a purpose now that the Religious Right is no longer a credible boogeyman. My question for Poly: would it be better for the Dems to lose now and reorganize, or get hammered in 2020 when the hard-right outgrows Trump and learns how to appeal to hard-luck minorities as well as it now appeals to hard-luck whites?

[Giancarlo]

Pence... lmao. Not. The Mexican thing will come up again.

The democrats have a major edge for years to come and many rising stars within the party. Your commentary about the democratic party is inaccurate. By the way, it's "not my party". I am a non-partisan. What failings? I'd rather not entertain the pseudo-intellectualism and paranoia displayed here.

Democrats will win in 2020 I think. The hard right is getting more and more fringe.

Why do I think this?

Demographics. The republicans have lost an entire generation of voters. And some even more right wing face in 2020 won't ****ing change that.

when the hard-right outgrows Trump and learns how to appeal to hard-luck minorities as well as it now appeals to hard-luck whites?

This is utterly ridiculous. They can't do that because it goes against their own philosophy. Hard-luck minorities? Are you kidding me? Which ones are you talking about? The hard-right viciously attacks minorities. Believe me on that. It will never change.

What do they have to offer? Nothing at all. And it doesn't appear they are holding much of an advantage among working class whites anymore. That's evaporating.

The hard right is perpetually full of sh*t and most people see that. The damage Trump did will last a generation.

[Elok]

I said "question for Poly," not "question for Giancarlo." You said you were leaving, after all. Stay or go, you need not consider any of the following as directed at you; that would simply waste time and energy for both of us.

I don't believe Trumpism is necessarily restricted to whites for the long term. At present, it is limited in appeal because of Trump himself, and his need to form a power base by ripping the old GOP to shreds. But these are the two commandments of Trumpism:

1. I'm telling you, we got screwed!
2. Man, **** those guys.

Both are very common sentiments--they aren't even limited to America. It doesn't take a genius to recognize Trump as just one portion of the general tidal wave of reactionary sentiment sloshing over the western world. There are plenty of people, of all races and persuasions, who feel that things are going very wrong.

Now, I don't think the GOP can go back to what it was after this, and I don't think even the sad-sacks who lost to Trump are fools enough to try and copy it exactly without him. They can look at the demographics as well as anybody else. So what are they going to be next?

I believe the most sensible move is to take the existing frothing-rage base and broaden it to POed people of other races. Also, not choosing a complete misogynist. There's no reason the GOP needs to be repulsive to women; they'll likely stay moderately pro-life but ditch some of the other stuff as they finish jettisoning what remains of the Religious Right. The traditionally religious will continue to stick with the GOP anyway, just because at this point they have no place on the Left and the GCs over there will be too busy strutting to shake off their obsolete decades-old habit of punching the Jesus freaks for the crowd.

But it won't work any more, and they'll have no idea how to deal with a secular, populist right, because the American Left has no populist cred left after pantsing Sanders. Occupy flopped, BLM is flopping, and they're pushing Ms. Welfare Reform right back into the White House. Do the Democrats know how to be The Man?

[Elok]

Also, this.

http://www.theonion.com/article/poll-finds-30-americans-still-undecided-whether-vo-54128

[Giancarlo]

1. I'm telling you, we got screwed!
2. Man, **** those guys.

And? So what? Some people have been echoing those sentiments for decades. Some people are stupid, full of **** and ****ing nuts (quoting George Carlin).

Those sentiments are NOT common enough and are echoed by a small fringe part who are never happy about everything and need big guns to make up for their shortcomings. The most I fear from them is the extreme violence they are hinged towards.

Both are very common sentiments--they aren't even limited to America. It doesn't take a genius to recognize Trump as just one portion of the general tidal wave of reactionary sentiment sloshing over the western world. There are plenty of people, of all races and persuasions, who feel that things are going very wrong.

No. They are limited. I leave it to you to try to distort and exaggerate certain things to fulfill your own libertarian fantasies. Your delusions about this "reactionary tidal wave" is based in falsehood.

Yes, things aren't going well, but most of us still have a rational mind. Plenty... wrong. If America was more white and right wing you would have a point, but your nonsense about this so called "reactionary tidal wave" says it all really.

I believe the most sensible move is to take the existing frothing-rage base and broaden it to POed people of other races. Also, not choosing a complete misogynist. There's no reason the GOP needs to be repulsive to women; they'll likely stay moderately pro-life but ditch some of the other stuff as they finish jettisoning what remains of the Religious Right. The traditionally religious will continue to stick with the GOP anyway, just because at this point they have no place on the Left and the GCs over there will be too busy strutting to shake off their obsolete decades-old habit of punching the Jesus freaks for the crowd.

More pseudo-intellectualism. And I'm calling it as it is. Most people aren't doing the rage bull**** and the POed bull****. Most people aren't going to vote for the GOP because they will never change. I didn't realize you were such a big spokesperson. I am so enlightened.

But it won't work any more, and they'll have no idea how to deal with a secular, populist right, because the American Left has no populist cred left after pantsing Sanders. Occupy flopped, BLM is flopping, and they're pushing Ms. Welfare Reform right back into the White House. Do the Democrats know how to be The Man?

This such phony nonsense. Secular, populist right? What secular populist right? I hate to break this to you, but the world just doesn't work that way. Time to get your hand out of the clouds and back to reality.

The only thing flopping right is the populist right. Nothing secular about them.

And what American left? What is this nonsense?

Your fantasies aren't the gold standard... to anything. Stop acting like you are some kind of philosopher. The so called "populist right" will fade miserably just like any passing fad. Rather like any passing fart.

[Giancarlo]

This so called right wing populist crap is flopping so badly it makes even a pile of horse **** look attractive. Look at what's happening.

Halted in their tracks. There are just too many logical and sound minded people to fall for that fascism.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

For example in Germany... the far right seems to be stuck at 12-14%. The left wing parties 44% (counting the SPD, Greens and the Left - though I doubt the Left would ever play a part in a coalition government).

Insufficient. Passing fart.

And in France:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-polls-idUSKCN1260SS

The centrist parties will win it. Of course, they call them the center right... but in contrast to American politics, Juppe is probably a lot more like Hillary Clinton.

[onodera]

Cool story!

So does your klepocratic government.

Facts burn. And if you want the world to explode into nuclear war, support Trump then.

So does my kleptocratic government what? Make me want Trump to win? Nope, they don't. They make me want to hang them.

You, on, the other hand, have about as much tact as a wood rasp shoved up someone's bottom, eager to insult other people based on the irrelevant aspects of their life, which is golden coming from someone with an avatar like yours.

And actually, I doubt Trump will start a nuclear war. If anything, a kleptocrat will be more compatible with our government than hawkish Clinton, who will be more likely to escalate tensions until Putin goes completely off the rails.

[Elok]

Wikileaks just dumped some of HRC's old speeches to banks. Nothing terribly outrageous from my POV, but then I still don't 100% get what everybody hates her for; I just know they really, really do. Anyway, she makes some scuzzy remarks about how leaders have to have a real policy the little people don't get to know about, or something. Also she wants open borders. As for the Trump thing, it does seem to have finally forced party leaders to turn on him more decisively. Not clear what their options are at this point; IIRC they don't have the legal means to just say, "HEY PENCE IS OUR PICK NOW SCREW THAT OTHER DUDE."

Re: nuclear war, it seems fair to say that Trump would be far more likely to pursue cozy relations with Russia, and thus avoid nuclear war. There is, however, a chance that he will get into an angry tweeting match with the president of, say, Paraguay, completely lose his ****, and order a nuclear strike. At which point one assumes the chiefs of staff will exchange worried looks and gently inform him that no, we will not be nuking Paraguay. Which will trigger a wholly different sort of crisis.

So, that's our choice as a nation: pointless tree-pissing with Putin under Hillary, or who-knows-what under Trump?

(it's probably best to ignore Fez)

[Lorizael]

I leave it to you to try to distort and exaggerate certain things to fulfill your own libertarian fantasies.

Elok?

[Elok]

You must have missed all those threads I posted about abolishing the Fed, gutting half the government and legalizing every drug.

[C0ckney]

You must have missed all those threads I posted about abolishing the Fed, gutting half the government and legalizing every drug.

only half?! can't believe how much you've sold out, man.

[Elok]

Okay, it seems they can't ditch Trump at this point b/c the ballots are already made. It'll be interesting to see if he can dig his way out of this.

[Guynemer]

Elok, I think your questions about the Dems are interesting, and the only answer is "it remains to be seen." The inmates are clearly running the asylum in the GOP at the moment--they are reaping what they have sown in regards to the Southern Strategy, anti-intellectualism, "god guns and gays", etc. The important question is whether the GOP can turn around from this, because as morally bankrupt as the Democratic party is, compared to the GOP, they look like The Good Guys, and the only way that changes is if the GOP changes.