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Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

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  • #1576
    Originally posted by Main_Brain View Post
    In my opinion Polls have become unreliable period. Several polls have been vastly misleading and/or influencing the actual votes.
    Some examples:
    German Landtagwahlen Poll predictions states AfD would fail to gain any seats ->they got ~10% of the votes.
    Brexit Polls.. enough said

    While the cause is unclear, maybe false statements given, maybe wrong statistical analysis, maybe wrong poll target group, maybe a poll influencing actual vote behaviour.. the effect is the same: Polls are at this point more unreliable than ever, or at least as far as I can remember.
    the UK general election, too. one of the things about the brexit result was that polling companies don't really have a good way of measuring the intentions of people who don't normally vote or used to vote and stopped. it will be interesting to see if this has an effect on the US election.

    and in fact US state polling has become much less accurate in recent years. this is due to the collapse of local media advertising revenues, which basically has stopped reputable national firms from doing state polling, and also changes in telecommunications patterns, which have wrecked the models of many regional polling firms. most state polls, therefore, should be treated with caution.

    fwiw, i think that trump will win florida. although rubio and trump don't like each other, they need each other to win, and the support from different groups that each brings should be enough. in pennsylvania, on the other hand, toonmey has refused to help trump, and it looks like both are heading for defeat.

    interestingly, betting firm paddy power, which famously paid out on a clinton victory, is now starting to get worried.

    https://twitter.com/pppolitics/status/793489891308867584
    "The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.

    "The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton

    Comment

    • #1577
      Originally posted by Aeson View Post
      Hillary's own statements are justified. (Trump's is the tinfoil candidate.)
      yeah, about that...

      "The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.

      "The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton

      Comment

      • #1578
        Highly justified.

        Hillary will take Florida I think. Democrats have matched Republicans in the state with early voting. She doesn't need Florida to win though. Even with her core states, she is pass 270.
        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

        Comment

        • #1579
          Also the claim that state polling should be taken with caution, doesn't really mean anything. State polling was surprisingly accurate throughout the primaries, barring Michigan. Much state polling is done through new methods (such as electronically).
          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

          Comment

          • #1580
            Hillary going on a classic red scare to draw attention away from her email dumbassery is Hillarious.
            Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

            Comment

            • #1581
              It's like a Geico Commercial. IT's what they do.
              It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
              RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

              Comment

              • #1582
                Putin is teh Patriarch
                I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                Comment

                • #1583
                  http://news-hl-cm.newsrep.net/h5/nrshare.html?r=3&lan=en_US&pid=3&id=5F495fb20yF_us&app_lan=&mcc=310&declared_lan=&pubaccount=ocms_0


                  I hope that works...

                  The email thing isn't having the effect Republicans were hoping for. It just isn't.
                  For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                  Comment

                  • #1584
                    Have to be a little careful. Our company does considerable exit polling and the only constant is that people sometimes lie so the results don't always match.

                    Now I'm not saying that she's not leading the early voting, but until the votes are actually counted, I'm not going to bet a lot of money on it.

                    Florida does not release any actual vote totals till after the polls close in both time zones of the state.
                    It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                    RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                    Comment

                    • #1585
                      Florida will be close. But I think she will win.

                      CNN/ORC and Emerson lmao... How republican leaning are those.. Lmao.

                      Quinnipiac released a bunch today and they are well respected at 538. She has sizable leads in key states, like Michigan and Pennsylvania. North Carolina shows her pulling ahead too, after an outlier showed her 7% behind Trump yesterday. Ohio is a bit concerning, but not necessary for her to win. Funny how the narrative has changed with that state.

                      Michael Moore now thinks she will win lol.
                      Last edited by Giancarlo; November 2, 2016, 16:30.
                      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                      Comment

                      • #1586
                        Brewster's Millions option needed...desperately.
                        "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                        Comment

                        • #1587
                          Rah, your thoughts on this bombshell?

                          TargetSmart/William & Mary Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters
                          https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
                          Press release, topline, and crosstabs from the TargetSmart/William & Mary Florida poll of early and likely voters.


                          Not necessarily a bombshell per say... But it says Hillary won 55% of early voters and a whopping 27% of republican voters in Florida.

                          So while it is true the two parties have been running even, there are major defections among Republican voters.

                          Some may say the poll was done before the email issue, but it could be too little too late as significant numbers already voted prior. There is also no real indication the email issue did damage in Florida, as Hillary had now shown 2-3% leads in the state with polling released today.
                          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                          Comment

                          • #1588
                            the tampa bay times takes a rather different view

                            Six days before Election Day in 2012, Democrats in Florida had cast about 39,000 more votes than Republicans. Today, six days before Election Day 2016, Republicans have cast about 17,000 more votes than Democrats.

                            We can parse the numbers in terms of whether Republicans have banked more voters certain to vote anyway or whether it's fair to compare 2012's longer early vote period to the shorter one four years ago. The bottom line, though, is that Democrats in Florida so far are performing worse than expected and Republicans better.

                            It's going to be close.
                            "The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.

                            "The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton

                            Comment

                            • #1589
                              "The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.

                              "The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton

                              Comment

                              • #1590
                                Whoosh.

                                That article proves nothing.

                                There has been significant republican crossover in early voting. this is a disaster for republicans. This wasn't just the raw number of votes.

                                Again, according to the poll 27% of those who voted republican voted for Hillary in early voting. Whereas 6% of democrats voted for Trump.

                                Come on cockney... read.

                                Edit: That Tampa Bay Times article is from days before the poll was released. You need to get your act together man.
                                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                                Comment

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