Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Giancarlo]

538 now has Trump at one in three. The revolver has two chambers loaded. Repeat, two chambers loaded. Fun times.

Except he is being too conservative with it and his model has been rife with problems this year. He needs to readjust it. I like Nate Silver but it seems like his site is more clickbait since ESPN bought them out.

Factoring in national tracking polling can throw things off.

She will rebound there too now that her numbers are rebounding nationally and holding firm in states.

Other models put her chance between 80-99% (yes 99% lol). Her numbers have rebounded in the betting markets too.

This is the worst possible time for her to rebound for Trump. This is what happened with Obama and Romney when the two were running even for weeks in October of 2012.

[Elok]

C0ckney, question: what do you expect Trump to do, if elected? I can get despising Hillary, but what are your expectations for Trump? I don't honestly believe he has any sincere interest in reforming anything. He won't try to start a war with Russia, and that's not nothing. I don't think he has what it takes to be a tyrant, as some people fear, and I doubt he believes even half the crap that comes out of his mouth. But . . . what is he going to do to fix things?

[Elok]

The fella in my avatar observed more than once that a certain amount of virtue--which should be understood in the broad sense of cultivated strengths of character--is necessary for a man to really do terrible things. Trump does not have that certain amount of virtue. If he has any virtue at all, he has not shown it. He loves nothing greater than himself. He shows no honesty, to others or even to himself. He has never displayed any amount of self-control. His empathy is limited to an eye for resentment and human weakness. He cannot give loyalty, and therefore cannot cultivate it. He has never been generous or just or kind. He is (to all appearances) simply a giant, howling moral void, which is really quite rare. But that doesn't make him dangerous so much as endlessly mediocre, and I expect nothing but endless mediocrity from a Trump administration. It will only be four years for the vultures to nibble at our bones.

[Giancarlo]

The fella in my avatar observed more than once that a certain amount of virtue--which should be understood in the broad sense of cultivated strengths of character--is necessary for a man to really do terrible things. Trump does not have that certain amount of virtue. If he has any virtue at all, he has not shown it. He loves nothing greater than himself. He shows no honesty, to others or even to himself. He has never displayed any amount of self-control. His empathy is limited to an eye for resentment and human weakness. He cannot give loyalty, and therefore cannot cultivate it. He has never been generous or just or kind. He is (to all appearances) simply a giant, howling moral void, which is really quite rare. But that doesn't make him dangerous so much as endlessly mediocre, and I expect nothing but endless mediocrity from a Trump administration. It will only be four years for the vultures to nibble at our bones.

I agree.

And while I may be supportive of Hillary, I know she has her baggage and flaws. And Republicans will hound her endlessly if she wins.

Trump, however, is a toxic horrible person.

He is only in it for himself and for personal gain.

[Sir Og]

C0ckney, question: what do you expect Trump to do, if elected? I can get despising Hillary, but what are your expectations for Trump? I don't honestly believe he has any sincere interest in reforming anything. He won't try to start a war with Russia, and that's not nothing. I don't think he has what it takes to be a tyrant, as some people fear, and I doubt he believes even half the crap that comes out of his mouth. But . . . what is he going to do to fix things?

Let me take a stab at answering why C0ckney likes Trump. The main attraction IMO is that Trump is not a status quo candidate. C0ckney doesn't like the status quo and seems to be the the kind of guy who likes revolutions. Who thinks that as long as you remove the existing system a better system is guaranteed to take it's place. Unfortunately it is very likely that just as ****ty or even ****tier system will replace the one removed.

[Giancarlo]

Trump is the status quo. He is someone who has had numerous political connections for decades, has been involved in organized crime (this story just came out as Trump was friends with Bob LiButti), and is horribly corrupt all around. I just don't get it.

Look I get people don't like Hillary with all her issues, but if you want to disrupt the status quo, try to find someone who isn't so deeply embedded in it like Trump. Trump has been stiffing people for decades through the system.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303933-video-shows-trump-with-alleged-mob-figure

This is about says it all. The article makes a mistake though. Bob LiButti was not an alleged mob figure. He certainly was one with ties to the Gotti family.

And he was invited on Trump's private jet multiple times. They also had a deal for some thoroughbred horses that didn't go through.

[Elok]

Let me take a stab at answering why C0ckney likes Trump. The main attraction IMO is that Trump is not a status quo candidate. C0ckney doesn't like the status quo and seems to be the the kind of guy who likes revolutions. Who thinks that as long as you remove the existing system a better system is guaranteed to take it's place. Unfortunately it is very likely that just as ****ty or even ****tier system will replace the one removed.

I don't believe this is fair to C0ckney. I think his favoring of Trump may be somewhat more emotive than rational, but he does seem to have a fairly elaborate ideology rooted in beliefs about economic justice, and if he has a reason to believe Trump will follow through, or even has the ability to follow through, on any promises to that end, well, I'd like to hear it.

[Giancarlo]

Or he is supporting him simply to troll me lol.

[C0ckney]

I still can't believe you're supporting Trump. Wanker.

well someone has to put all the ****libs and cuckservatives in their place.

[Bereta_Eder]

Let me take a stab at answering why C0ckney likes Trump. The main attraction IMO is that Trump is not a status quo candidate. C0ckney doesn't like the status quo and seems to be the the kind of guy who likes revolutions. Who thinks that as long as you remove the existing system a better system is guaranteed to take it's place. Unfortunately it is very likely that just as ****ty or even ****tier system will replace the one removed.

IMO cockney makes one mistake and it isn't this.

He seems to think that trump is maybe not going to win.

Trump already won.

Necessity

[C0ckney]

C0ckney, question: what do you expect Trump to do, if elected? I can get despising Hillary, but what are your expectations for Trump? I don't honestly believe he has any sincere interest in reforming anything. He won't try to start a war with Russia, and that's not nothing. I don't think he has what it takes to be a tyrant, as some people fear, and I doubt he believes even half the crap that comes out of his mouth. But . . . what is he going to do to fix things?

well, as i've said before, i prefer his foreign policy, which i believe to be isolationist (i know that many disagree with that, and given trump's erratic statements on the issue, it's possible to make a good argument that he isn't, but i think that if one takes a broader view then his position becomes reasonably clear; moreover, his #nevertrump opponents paint him as an isolationist as a criticism, and there's no reason to doubt their sincerity on that point). less US foreign policy in general will be a net benefit to the world.

when it comes to domestic policy, i think he will bring an end to the toxic free-market capitalism plus identity politics combination that tells factory workers, etc. that their jobs have to go while lecturing them on their 'white privilege'. he will also kill the TINA discourse about globalisation and, at the very least, open up space for real alternatives to emerge. he may also, and i know it seems a little odd to say this given how sleazy he is - but consider the alternative - actually clean up politics somewhat. my point here is based on fact that he isn't beholden to special interest groups, and indeed he has gone out of his way to give the middle finger to many of them, hence much of the 'trump is literally hilter' campaign waged against him. he will also, whether he wins or loses but obviously far more so if he wins, move the republican party in a populist direction, which will, in time, have a profound effect on US politics.

[Giancarlo]

You think wrong about his economic policy. Trump is only in it for the money. That always has been his objective. Trump is already planning in launching Trump TV. He is already moving on.

And Trumps foreign policy couldn't be any further from isolationist. He would send troops to other countries and use nukes (by his own admission).

That is where you have it wrong. sorry.

You misread all of his intentions. That is quite sad.

[Giancarlo]

I don't get how anyone on the left can support this man. Hillary is far from perfect, but Trump is uber-interventionist. He would have tens of thousands of troops in Iraq... Probably without permission from the government. He would consider using nukes on other countries.

And his economic policy is **** and would benefit no one but the elite. He would put $7.2 trillion on the debt and his policies are super pro free market. He has even talked about eliminating regulations.

Plus he is a horrible nasty bigoted man who done all sorts of wrong. From sexual assault to racketeering.

Get real please!

In it for the money!

[kentonio]

when it comes to domestic policy, i think he will bring an end to the toxic free-market capitalism plus identity politics combination that tells factory workers, etc. that their jobs have to go while lecturing them on their 'white privilege'.

By not bothering with the identity politics and just engaging in full on corrupt and toxic free-market capitalism?

[C0ckney]

By not bothering with the identity politics and just engaging in full on corrupt and toxic free-market capitalism?

well just losing one's job would be preferable to losing one's job and having to put up with a lecture on top. but trump, interestingly enough for a billionaire businessman, isn't really a free-marketeer.