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I read an article in this mornings newspaper saying a poll shows Trump with a 1% lead now.
Yikes!
Yikes!
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National polling? Tracking poll? Not really reliable. I remember them saying Mitt Romney would be President lol.Originally posted by Braindead View Post
By the way, that Rand poll I mentioned is considered the gold standard. It has Hillary ahead by 9%.
We will see I guess.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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You are not wrong. There have been many articles by people in the polling industry basically saying 'it's getting harder and harder to do accurate polling and we don't know how to fix it'. Apparently getting a representative sample now that vast numbers of people don't have landlines, and many won't answer mobiles (plus finding who actually owns mobiles to ensure the sample group is fair), is really time consuming and expensive.Originally posted by Main_Brain View PostIn my opinion Polls have become unreliable period. Several polls have been vastly misleading and/or influencing the actual votes.
Some examples:
German Landtagwahlen Poll predictions states AfD would fail to gain any seats ->they got ~10% of the votes.
Brexit Polls.. enough said
While the cause is unclear, maybe false statements given, maybe wrong statistical analysis, maybe wrong poll target group, maybe a poll influencing actual vote behaviour.. the effect is the same: Polls are at this point more unreliable than ever, or at least as far as I can remember.Comment
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no it isn't; the article was published yesterday, hence 'six days before the election'. learn to read. and the tampa bay times is far more reliable than some no mark polling firm whose model looks very suspect and that has clinton eight points ahead in florida. as i said before, most state polling is poor these days, but that one isn't worth the .pdf it's written on.Originally posted by Giancarlo View Post"The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.
"The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de BottonComment
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i mean, there's a poll out (hampton university) saying that trump is ahead by 3 in virginia. what about that bombshell?! but of of course any reasonable person will look at that, see how far out of line with all the other polling it is and conclude that it shouldn't be taken seriously..."The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.
"The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de BottonComment
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I still can't believe you're supporting Trump. Wanker.
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Well they found new Hillary emails. GC was wrong 10 times.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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It really doesn't change anything I posted earlier.Originally posted by Giancarlo View PostRah, your thoughts on this bombshell?
Not necessarily a bombshell per say... But it says Hillary won 55% of early voters and a whopping 27% of republican voters in Florida.
So while it is true the two parties have been running even, there are major defections among Republican voters.
Originally posted by rah View PostIt's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
RIP Tony Bogey & Baron OComment
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Because every other poll has her 4-7% ahead in Virginia, so that is considered an outlier. Just like the outlier in New Hampshire that has Trump ahead by 1%. By the way, Hampton isn't a well rated pollster. Even republican leaning Emerson has her up +4% in Virginia.Originally posted by C0ckney View Post
Good god... You need to get your act together.Last edited by Giancarlo; November 3, 2016, 09:54.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Most state polling is poor because you say so? That poll was done on people who voted early and many republicans say they voted for Hillary. It is different than other polling.Originally posted by C0ckney View Post
By the way, Hillary has started to develop leads in Florida polling similar to what Obama has had in 2008. 2-3%. While the +8% is a bit of an outlier, the poll done on those who voted early is still useful information.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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By the way, Hillary has rebounded in Reuters/IPSOs and has rebounded in ABC News (the one Trump was yapping about having a +1% lead a day or two ago).
She is ahead +6% in Reuters and +2% in ABC News now.
Reuters:
National polling yes.
But perhaps showing people don't give a **** about the benign emails that prove nothing. And since Mr Comey has said nothing else people aren't buying it.Last edited by Giancarlo; November 3, 2016, 09:59. Reason: ABC is +2%, CBS is +3%. Both showing rebounding numbers.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Or... probably showing that Trump is just a bozo
Two crappy candidates. Hillary is terrible, but Trump is worse.
The American people lose yet again.Keep on Civin'
RIP rah, Tony Bogey & Baron OComment
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It's either IPSOS or Ipsos not IPSOs.
I've done considerable work for our polling group.It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
RIP Tony Bogey & Baron OComment
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538 now has Trump at one in three. The revolver has two chambers loaded. Repeat, two chambers loaded. Fun times.Comment
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Gotcha.Originally posted by rah View PostIt's either IPSOS or Ipsos not IPSOs.
I've done considerable work for our polling group.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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