Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Giancarlo]

well i think i can, but allow me to explain more clearly. clinton is the status quo candidate. trump is the change candidate, but, as i've said in many previous posts, he represents change that many people don't want. however, those who can't abide trump but still want change, as opposed to the status quo that clinton represents, have diverse other options, such as voting for a third party candidate or even refusing to vote for one who is close to their beliefs but offers no change.

Okay. One thing I see is most don't like Trump, don't agree with him and overall narrowly don't want him.

As far third parties, both Johnson and Stein have dropped off sharply. Now there is a risk Johnson will fall below the 5% threshold.

[C0ckney]

If Hillary wins that must mean she's the change candidate?

another great example of aesonic reasoning there.

and my point, as i have said goodness knows how many times now, is that it is helpful to be the change candidate in an election in which people want change. i have explained how this works in my other posts.

[Lorizael]

And I will accept whatever happens next week and get on with my own life.

I'll accept whatever happens and get on with my life, too, but to me Trump winning is a signal that maybe this country's values are even further away from my crazy values than I thought they were. And I don't have any measure of patriotism, so...

[Giancarlo]

Two more polls...

Republican leaning Emerson has Trump ahead +3% in Iowa, which throws the state back in the margin of error and perhaps in play. Emerson is one that traditionally oversamples republicans.

Georgia had yet another poll showing a +2% for Trump. Very close there. The ironic thing about Georgia is blacks may actually get out to vote in large numbers as Hillary has more assured support in the South from them. In addition, she is making inroads with these polls among whites. Latinos in Georgia are also reshaping the state too.

[Giancarlo]

I'll accept whatever happens and get on with my life, too, but to me Trump winning is a signal that maybe this country's values are even further away from my crazy values than I thought they were. And I don't have any measure of patriotism, so...

Yeah. I feel the same way. I will be very saddened and disappointed if this country fell for that buffoon. Polling gives me some hope... But, it is still too close for comfort.

[Aeson]

and my point, as i have said goodness knows how many times now, is that it is helpful to be the change candidate in an election in which people want change. i have explained how this works in my other posts.

You have ignored reality while doing so. The directionality of the desired changes matters. Hillary is a terrible candidate and still has maintained a lead in polling averages. Trump has underperformed in % of voters. There's no reason to think Trump represents the change most people want. Most likely he represents the Rs who want Rs, and doesn't represent the Ds who want Ds or the others who want neither Ds nor Rs.

[Elok]

He isn't really an R, though. He's highly unconventional for the party in many ways, hence #NeverTrump. Certainly he's a political outsider, whereas Clinton, gender notwithstanding, has been in politics for longer than many current voters have been alive. His poor performance likely reflects his complete lack of personal appeal, not a lack of desire for change.

[Giancarlo]

He isn't really an R, though. He's highly unconventional for the party in many ways, hence #NeverTrump. Certainly he's a political outsider, whereas Clinton, gender notwithstanding, has been in politics for longer than many current voters have been alive. His poor performance likely reflects his complete lack of personal appeal, not a lack of desire for change.

Well when Hillary maintains a strong edge on key issues, I have to question that. Do people really agree with what he is saying?

[Elok]

Probably not. But that's not the point. Hillary represents the same thing we've had before, and if people are sufficiently sick of what we've had before they may latch onto most any jackass who's promising something different.

[Elok]

You could have Zach Galifianakis running for president on the motto "I will personally put my testicles in the mouth of every sleeping person in America," and he might well get Trump levels of support provided he had an R or a D after his name. His "edginess" would show he wasn't afraid to mix things up and challenge the status quo.

[Giancarlo]

Probably not. But that's not the point. Hillary represents the same thing we've had before, and if people are sufficiently sick of what we've had before they may latch onto most any jackass who's promising something different.

Well I think more people prefer Hillary with all her baggage even. She still leads him.

[Elok]

Yes, she does lead him, because he's a fantastically bad candidate. That she is not ten points up on him at this point, nationwide, says a good deal about how powerfully people want something different, since "something different" is literally all he has to offer.

[kentonio]

Whereas I have no idea who the hell any of Florida's congresscritters are, and I've lived here for a year.

You live in Florida?! Oh god I had no idea, I'm so very sorry.. #PrayersAreWithYou

[Elok]

I'd take comfort from that, but I know it's bull**** and you're just going to drink a beer. And you would've had that beer anyway.

[Aeson]

The numbers don't add up. Trump is underperforming Romney with Rs at rates that closely describes his underperforming Romney in general.

Ds want Ds, Rs want Rs, and to the extent Trump has changed that is to scare off a small (and shrinking) % of Rs who would have voted R otherwise.

Undecideds could break it ... but for now Trump doesn't seem to be the change people want.