Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Giancarlo]

Okay if you like polling so much, why the ignoring of the two often reported averages?

55-57% - approval of President Obama
~20% - approval of Congress.

You are cherry picking to suit your own narrative.

Most people can't stand Trump. Yes Hillary doesn't have the best approval ratings, but Trump's are far worse.

[Elok]

I don't think most people have any specific desire beyond "not this."

[Giancarlo]

Also why does Hillary have strong advantages over Trump on economics, leadership and temperament? They come even on terrorism and that's about it. Explain that.

If we aren't cherry picking...

[Aeson]

sure, people think so for diverse reasons. but in a election in which most people want change, it's better to be the change candidate.

You aren't understanding the poll.

R's want to change the president. They don't want to change congress.

D's want to change congress. They don't want to change the president.

But both can vote "it's going in the wrong direction" and then support their R or D as they always were going to.

Those who think R's and D's are both the wrong direction want change ... but have no viable option.

[C0ckney]

Trump isn't the change candidate and most people see that. And he has inflamed minorities. So turnout may actually be high for Clinton. Maybe partially out of fear.

Get a grip!

BTW most models put Clinton at 320 EV's.

it is really necessary to explain how the businessman who's never held elected office, and has based a large part of his campaign on railing against the establishment, is the change candidate when running against the quintessential washington inside who has been in politics for decades?

as for minority turnout, i expect black turnout to be down, as blacks, unsurprisingly, will be less inspired to vote clinton than for obama, and hispanic turnout to be up. but since hispanics don't vote en bloc like blacks do, we'll see what effect that has.

both RCP (no toss up) and 538 have clinton at 290+- and trump on 240-+. so flordia, in other words.

[C0ckney]

You aren't understanding the poll.

no.

are you really denying that 'in a election in which most people want change, it's better to be the change candidate.'?

[Giancarlo]

it is really necessary to explain how the businessman who's never held elected office, and has based a large part of his campaign on railing against the establishment, is the change candidate when running the quintessential washington inside who has been in politics for decades?

as for minority turnout, i expect black turnout to be down, as blacks, unsurprisingly, will be less inspired to vote clinton than for obama, and hispanic turnout to be up. but since hispanics don't vote en bloc like blacks do, we'll see what effect that has.

both RCP (no toss up) and 538 have clinton at 290+- and trump on 240-+. so flordia, in other words.

Many other models have her at 320. Hispanics are overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton, including in Florida according to polling. So yea. Florida.

Most people don't like or want Trump. Most don't approve of him or his temperament.

And on the economic issues people think so much about Hillary has a double digit lead in polling.

Edit: While Texas has drifted more towards Trump recently, Hispanics there who tend to be more conservative also overwhelmingly support Clinton. It seems to be quite widespread.

[Giancarlo]

no.

are you really denying that 'in a election in which most people want change, it's better to be the change candidate.'?

That isn't what that question says. You are making things up from a number you cherry picked.

[Aeson]

no.

are you really denying that 'in a election in which most people want change, it's better to be the change candidate.'?

You're conflating "change [something]" with "change president".

R's want an R president, so want to change to an R president. D's want a D president, so don't want to change from a D president.

The polls to look at for if people want to change D president to R or keep D ... are the polls for the presidential race. Which look to be leaning to keeping D, but it's close.

[Elok]

In fairness, I think people in general tend to pay waaaaaay more attention to the president than to anybody else, and to have (at times ludicrously) inflated expectations for the president's power and role. I mean, I've seen reasonably intelligent people give Obama significant credit for gas prices. Whereas I have no idea who the hell any of Florida's congresscritters are, and I've lived here for a year.

[C0ckney]

You're conflating "change [something]" with "change president".

no, i'm not. i'm saying that it's better to be a change candidate in an election in which most people want change. the effect may not be that great, but it is there, and, in a close election, every little helps.

[Lorizael]

I don't think most people have any specific desire beyond "not this."

Almost a Matrix reference.

[Giancarlo]

In fairness, I think people in general tend to pay waaaaaay more attention to the president than to anybody else, and to have (at times ludicrously) inflated expectations for the president's power and role. I mean, I've seen reasonably intelligent people give Obama significant credit for gas prices. Whereas I have no idea who the hell any of Florida's congresscritters are, and I've lived here for a year.

Not even Marco Rubio lol? Florida seems to be leaning Hillary, but he might retain his place as his challenger hasn't received much funding.

[Aeson]

no, i'm not. i'm saying that it's better to be a change candidate in an election in which most people want change. the effect may not be that great, but it is there, and, in a close election, every little helps.

You're assuming its a change D president to R election. The presidential polls don't agree.

Even though Hillary is a much worse candidate than she was when she lost to Obama, Trump is underperforming Romney. To the extent that he's a "change" candidate it's been in how he can manage to get R's to not vote for the R. Hillary is the same change on the D side.

Anyone actually interested in change isn't voting D or R.

[Giancarlo]

no, i'm not. i'm saying that it's better to be a change candidate in an election in which most people want change. the effect may not be that great, but it is there, and, in a close election, every little helps.

He doesn't represent the kind of change that many people want. He is a regression. For some that is changing things back to a time where people like me were murdered... But for most it isn't.

You still can't explain his high disapproval numbers not just overall, but also his high disapproval ratings on economic issues. Isn't it all about economics in the end?