Who do you think will be the next President of the US?

[Jon Miller]

You know there are other boards where everyone is trying to figure out who theyt can stomach more (Huckabee or Guiliani).

JM

[LordShiva]

Will teh Republicans really choose to screw themselves so badly by nominating Huckabee?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Wezil


I don't want to threadjack but I suspect you have never compared the US and Canadian versions.

Isn't Canada just the northern U.S.?

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Will teh Republicans really choose to screw themselves so badly by nominating Huckabee?

He's probably their best bet to win, isn't he? Or does the christian fundamentalist demographic overlap too much with the anti-black misogynist demographic for him to be useful against the likely candidates.

Remember that the religious right delivered W's wins, and Huckabee can count on them for his votes even more so... and how many who would choose not to vote for a religious right type voted for W? Zero?

[Ben Kenobi]

Huckabee isn't my first choice.

[snoopy369]

The question isn't 'first choice', it's 'best bet to win'. IE, not 'most liked by the right-wing republicans/religious right/etc.' but 'most likely to win votes among the moderates/right-ish democrats, left-center republicans, and not piss off the core right/religious demographic'. W managed that, and I think Huck has the best (albeit somewhat low still) chance to do that.

I'd note that I personally would vote for many democrats over Huck, but I'm relatively rare among republicans.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]


The Prediction markets have Obama ahead in NV, and SC is being conceded to him. Florida looks like it will be competitive as well.

Clearly, I was looking at out-of-date polling info. These developments are very interesting.

[Zkribbler]

Early Highlights From NH Survey
By The Associated Press – 3 hours ago

Some highlights from preliminary results of exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the New Hampshire primaries Tuesday:

___

GENDER: As usual in presidential primaries, women voters predominated in the Democratic contest and men in the Republican.

IDEOLOGY: A little more than half of Republican primary voters called themselves conservative and about as many Democratic primary voters called themselves liberal.

INDEPENDENT VOTERS: More independents were voting in the Democratic primary than in the republican. In New Hampshire, they can vote in either contest.

TIME OF DECISION: Nearly half of voters in each primary said they decided in the past week which candidate to support.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE CANDIDATES: Eight in 10 Democratic voters strongly favor their candidate, compared to two-thirds of Republican primary voters.

FEELINGS ABOUT PRESIDENT BUSH: Democratic primary voters felt a lot more negative about Bush than Republican voters felt positive:

_ Fully two-thirds of Democratic primary voters said they feel angry about the Bush administration and nearly all the rest said they were dissatisfied, but not angry.

_ Among Republican primary voters, fewer than one in 10 were enthusiastic and four in 10 were satisfied but not enthusiastic. About a third were dissatisfied and two in 10 GOP primary voters were angry about the Bush administration.

ISSUES:

_ A third of Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, and they split evenly among the other three choices they were given — immigration, Iraq and terrorism.

_ Given three choices, a little more than a third of Democratic primary voters picked the economy, with Iraq and health care not far behind.

IRAQ WAR:

_ Democratic primary voters were pretty evenly split between wanting all U.S. troops withdrawn as soon as possible and setting a timetable to withdraw them gradually. Only about 5 percent wanted to keep troops in Iraq "as long as needed."

_ Asked a different question in the survey, a third of Republican primary voters strongly approve of the Iraq war and at least as many somewhat approve.

WORRIES:

_ Three quarters of Democratic primary voters were worried there will be another major terrorist attack on the United States and virtually all were worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next few years. Republican primary voters were a little more worried about a terrorist attack and a bit less worried about the economy.

Democratic primary voters viewed the current economy much more pessimistically, with nine in 10 saying it's not so good or poor. Republican voters were split between positive and negative views of the economy.

PRIMARIES TOO SOON? About four in 10 voters in each contest said the presidential primaries around the country are being held too early this year.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by snoopy369


He's probably their best bet to win, isn't he? Or does the christian fundamentalist demographic overlap too much with the anti-black misogynist demographic for him to be useful against the likely candidates.

Remember that the religious right delivered W's wins, and Huckabee can count on them for his votes even more so... and how many who would choose not to vote for a religious right type voted for W? Zero?

Didn't W have teh economic conservatives behind him as well? It seems like someone like Hillary or Obama would wipe teh floor with Huckabee, with several of Bush's states going Democrat. Of teh states that went for Kerry, which would flip to Huckabee?

[Impaler[WrG]]

Results so far show Hillary leading, if this holds it will be an absolutely miraculous reversal from a more then 10 point deficit in polling the day before. The tubes-of-blog have pronounced this to be from the "crying" incident which seems to have emotionally swayed women back to Hillary. Obama might still pull out a narrow victory but it will defiantly be a set back considering the hype that had built over the weekend.

[Will9]

Originally posted by LordShiva


Didn't W have teh economic conservatives behind him as well? It seems like someone like Hillary or Obama would wipe teh floor with Huckabee, with several of Bush's states going Democrat. Of teh states that went for Kerry, which would flip to Huckabee?

The upper midwest has appearenly been going GOP recently.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
Results so far show Hillary leading, if this holds it will be an absolutely miraculous reversal from a more then 10 point deficit in polling the day before. The tubes-of-blog have pronounced this to be from the "crying" incident which seems to have emotionally swayed women back to Hillary. Obama might still pull out a narrow victory but it will defiantly be a set back considering the hype that had built over the weekend.

According to exit polls, Obama did better with the youngest 3 age cohorts, Hillary with the oldest 3 cohorts. Youth pulled it out for Obama in Iowa, but the fact is that, in general, voting skews old. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by LordShiva


Didn't W have teh economic conservatives behind him as well? It seems like someone like Hillary or Obama would wipe teh floor with Huckabee, with several of Bush's states going Democrat. Of teh states that went for Kerry, which would flip to Huckabee?

Um, how do you figure this? Huck's policies won't be any less economically conservative than Obama/Clinton, and presumably much more so... Admittedly you're basically describing my cohort (economic conservative, but not on board with Republican social policies), but I think most in that group would vote for Huck over Obama/Clinton, trusting the Democrats in Congress to keep the social policies relatively sane, but not trusting a Democratic president to behave economically along with a very Democratic Senate (could be nearly 60 votes as it is, yes?)

[LordShiva]

But which states would Huck take from Kerry?

[DinoDoc]

Is Kerry running?