Who do you think will be the next President of the US?

[Ramo]

Clinton could survive a loss in SC, given her presumably overwhelming victory in FL (one that probably will be contested to some extent). She has problems, though, if she were to lose both NV and SC (NV currently looks like a toss up).

Romney hurt McCain really badly. McCain was looking to be coronated, but a 9% loss in a big, important state where he did well in 8 years ago doesn't look good. It demonstrates Romney's ace in the hole - his personal fortune. As he did in MI, he can continue to outspend the competition even when his fundraising dries up.

Thee days from now, there'll be Dem and GOP NV and GOP SC. Huckabee (and Thompson FWIW) is going all out there since it's the first Southern state. McCain needs a high profile win to prove NH wasn't a fluke (i.e. that he can win among Republicans only). Romney may compete there, but it's gravy at this point. Instead, he cleans up in NV where no other candidate is bothering, and whose delegates he can again easily afford to buy. The hugely important Dem race in NV (probably that race and CA determine the nomination) guarantees that his win doesn't go ignored.

FL then becomes a really interesting multicandidate race. That is, we'll see at least Romney, Giuliani, and the SC victor (probably Huck). If McCain wins SC by a narrow margin, we'll probably see the second place finisher compete as well.

[OzzyKP]

Romney's win in Michigan is discounted a bit since it is his home state. I think it absolutely keeps him alive and contending in this race but I don't think it was a crushing blow to McCain.

[Impaler[WrG]]

McCain alludes to such in his concession speech, an interesting bit of exit polling data

42% of respondents in the exit poll reported that Romney's ties to the state were important factors in their vote choice. Romney won those voters decisively, 58% to 17%. Meanwhile, 56% of voters said that his ties to the state were not important factors. Interestingly, McCain won those voters, 39% to 23%.

Found http://www.realclearpolitics.com/hor...n_results.html

[Ramo]

McCain lays some claim to MI from his 2000 win. Also, he was supposed to benefit from the Indies and Dem who have no incentive to turn out in the Dem primary. That didn't happen (Indie participation was actually lower than in 2000 - which also had a meaningless contest among Dems). And he lost by a large margin - 9%, underperforming expectations. He'll have a tougher time down the road in closed primaries.

McCain certainly isn't out. But he'd have been doing a lot better if he won MI. The result was in some ways similar to NH for the Dems (i.e. Obama is by no means out, but that stopped his coronation dead).

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Romney's win in Michigan is discounted a bit since it is his home state. I think it absolutely keeps him alive and contending in this race but I don't think it was a crushing blow to McCain.

It keeps Romney in until Super Tuesday, where he has enough money to compete. But do McCain, Huckabee, Thompson and/or Guiliani have that much money?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Romney's win in Michigan is discounted a bit since it is his home state. I think it absolutely keeps him alive and contending in this race but I don't think it was a crushing blow to McCain.

The thing that bothers me about it all is that I think McCain lost because he told the truth. Though I realize for politicians that can easily happen. McCain said, rightly, that the manufacturing jobs are gone. Romney said he's going to try to get them back. McCain is right and I think Romney knew that when he responded. But telling the truth, I guess can get you into trouble, as people who wanted those manufacturing jobs back voted Romney it seems.

[DirtyMartini]

I think Michigan Dems followed the advice of DailyKos and voted for Romney

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225/55/434206

[Ramo]

Not if you look at the exit polls. McCain carried Dems and Indies by significant margins. His problem was that not nearly enough of them showed up. Romney's victory margin among Republicans was something like 14%. And that, in a nutshell, is McCain's problem.

[Alexander I]

Heh, if you go by Romney's Olympic Medal comparison, the GOP race currently stands as follows:

Romney: 2 Golds, 2 Silvers, and 52 Delegates
Huckabee: 1 Gold, 2 Bronzes, and 22 Delegates
McCain: 1 Gold, 1 Silver, and 15 Delegates
Thompson: 1 Silver, 2 Bronzes and 6 Delegates
Paul: No Medals and 2 Delegates
Giuliani: No Medals and just 1 measly Delegate

By point of contrast, here are the Dems:

Clinton: 2 Golds, 1 Bronze, and 190 Delegates (Michigan doesn't really count, as their delegates were lost)
Obama: 1 Gold, 1 Silver, and 103 Delegates
Edwards: 1 Silver, 1 Bronze, and 51 Delegates

Now I'm not sure how exactly the Dems figure out their delegates; it's some kind of complicated malarkey. Anyway, I got the delegate scores from CNN's website.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

So all this proves is that it's really a chaotic toss-up between Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Clinton and Obama and that Giuliani desperately needs Florida or he's essentially out of the race. Gotta love politics.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Alexander I
So all this proves is that it's really a chaotic toss-up between Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Clinton and Obama and that Giuliani desperately needs Florida or he's essentially out of the race. Gotta love politics.

Why the ? I'm as tired of the campaigning at this point as anyone else, but this looks way, way more like actual democracy than most elections.

[Alexander I]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Why the ? I'm as tired of the campaigning at this point as anyone else, but this looks way, way more like actual democracy than most elections.

True. And it's actually the most interesting presidential campaign I have experienced thus far in my life. So I suppose I could have put to more accurately depict my sentiments, but that would've been too confusing, IMHO.

So...

[Ben Kenobi]

Romney got a gold medal in Wyoming, and Thompson had a silver.

If you are going to count them then you have to count them all.

A medal won in the 4x400m medley counts just as much as winning the 100 metre dash.

[Ramo]

McCain: 1 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze, and 15 Delegates

McCain was #4 in IA (albeit narrowly)...

Now I'm not sure how exactly the Dems figure out their delegates; it's some kind of complicated malarkey.

There are a few hundred (out of ~4,000) "unpledged delegates" that consist of members of Congress, Governors, former Congressional leaders and Presidents, state party chairs, etc. Clinton has a huge lead in unpledged delegates, although that gap's likely to close if the race tightens. Among pledged delegates, Obama is up 25-24.

[chequita guevara]

Obama or Clinton will be the next President, baring something completely unexpected. The GOP doesn't like any of their candidates, while the Dems are excited about their top three. Independents are looking back at the wreckage of the last seven years and even if they aren't liking the Dems, I doubt they could stand to return the GOP to power. It's simply too corrupt. Even Rostenkowski looks like a paragon of honesty comparably.

The only question is the Green Party factor. A significant swath of the Democratic Party is furious with the Dems for their refusal to stop funding the war and not even investigate the President. There is a layer of the Democratic base ready to defect. The question then is, will the independents make up for the defection or will the Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Ben Kenobi]

Romney: 2 Golds, 2 Silvers, and 52 Delegates
Huckabee: 1 Gold, 2 Bronzes, and 22 Delegates
McCain: 1 Gold, 1 Silver and 15 Delegates
Thompson: 1 Silver, 1 Bronze and 6 Delegates
Hunter: 1 Bronze and 1 Delegates
Paul: No Medals and 2 Delegates
Giuliani: No Medals and just 1 measly Delegate