Who do you think will be the next President of the US?

[Impaler[WrG]]

That LBJ had a role in the civil rights revolution is insulting to blacks?

The take is that LBJ deserved more credit then MLK, basically its an extension of her "I know how to game the system" argument, MLK was an idealist comparable to Barrack who just "talked about change" but LBJ as President got things done as she would.

LBJ certainly did "game the system" to get the Civil Rights bill passed but the point is that among blacks no one can be placed above MLK in the hierarchy of greatness, thats just sacralage.

Wait, what? Bill as an attack dog is unbecoming of him? He wasn't exactly charitable when running in '92.

He wasn't attacking a Black man in 92, remember Hillary is only like by Blacks vicariously through Bill. Now we have not just advocating for Hillary asking people to remember the good old times when he was Prez but actively attacking the first viable Black candidate. If Blacks conclude that Bill would squander "their chance" for selfish reasons they would be hugely alienated. Thus I think with a NH victory Bill will be put back on a jolly positive message until Hillary is in trouble again.

In case your wondering the race now hinges on who wins SC which will be determined by who wins Blacks and how Edwards supporters move over the next month.

[Ramo]

The polls consistenly showed Obama up by several points. They are almost never this wrong. As I hinted at in the earlier post, I'd attribute it to two things:
1. The sexist (see the angry and crying memes) media mostly changed women votes over the past day - after all the polls were finished (the difference between the polls and the results were chiefly among women).
2. The Obama camp completely failed to manage expectations, so Independents who would otherwise have voted for Obama thought he would win in a blowout and voted for McCain in a race that was portrayed as closer.

[GePap]

Well, the interesting question to me is which way do black women vote, if they decide to vote based on "identity" Do they chose their racial or sexual identity? In the end there are more black women voters than male black voters, if only because such a large percentage of black males are disenfranchised.

I think Hillary's people showed that organization still matters, and that appeal to youth is still not what its cracked up to be. The youth vote is not a reliable one.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by GePap

I think Hillary's people showed that organization still matters, and that appeal to youth is still not what its cracked up to be. The youth vote is not a reliable one.

It never has been. Only silly old people tend to vote. Probably why politics is so curmudgeonly.

I recall that the election where the voting age was lowered was one where Nixon won big. That about shows how much it matters.

I remember a politician saying that the only people who reliably vote are those who own houses or are paying them off.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by GePap
Well, the interesting question to me is which way do black women vote, if they decide to vote based on "identity" Do they chose their racial or sexual identity? In the end there are more black women voters than male black voters, if only because such a large percentage of black males are disenfranchised.

I think Hillary's people showed that organization still matters, and that appeal to youth is still not what its cracked up to be. The youth vote is not a reliable one.

A lot of black people are voting for Hillary, from what I've read here and elsewhere, either because they see Obama as unelectable (which may well change now) or they just see Clinton as more friendly to their cause, for whatever reason...

[Impaler[WrG]]

Iowa and New Hampshire are lily white, virtually no blacks have voted yet and I haven't seen any numbers yet as to who they voted for in either contest. Their have been reports that they have been moving towards Obama over the summer and its tipped from a net advantage for Hillary to Obama's advantage. Not surprisingly blacks have been smart enough to not even consider wasting their votes on Edwards, they may end up being the king-makers in South Carolina.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

An observartion:

Looking at the voter breakdown in NH, some interesting patterns emerge, and they don't do Clinton or the Democratic Party any favors:

Everyone's reporting that Hillary took voters over 30 and women. That itself is good-news/bad-news for a general election: voting skews old, but it also skews male.

She was also especially strong among moderate and conservative Dems, blue-collar voters and voters without college degrees. This is more good-news/bad-news; voting in the general election skews moderate, but also skews wealthy and educated.

Finally, she seemed to do best with voters who are most pessimistic. Voters who reported themselves as "falling behind" financially, as "very worried" about teh direction of the economy and about a possible terrorist strike on the US, and as "angry" (vs. "somewhat angry") about the Bush administration. basically, she's got the fear and resentment vote, which does not even dominate the Democratic Party let alone the country.

In short, she whomped largely in the categories that don't decide general elections, and Obama took most of the categories that do.

My indecision continues...

[germanos]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
Their

I hate being a spelling Nazi, but am I correct that you consistantly write 'their' when you mean 'there'?

(I'm not a native speaker, so I'm thrown off a bit reading that)

[MikeH]

He does, yes.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


Isn't Canada just the northern U.S.?

Quit being such an American.

[MOBIUS]

What, being crap at geography...?

[MarkG]

Profile of the New Hampshire Primary Voters

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NH.html

it's interesting that Hillary is only getting 58% of the "I'd vote Bill Clinton if i could" vote

and Obama gets the atheists. ...

[Harovan]

I wonder if Monica Lewinsky would vote for Hillary...

[Agathon]

Why do people think Hillary is unattractive? If my wife looks like that at 60, I would be pretty happy.

Mind you, that woman she is accused of shagging is super hot.

[Zkribbler]

it will be interesting to see how the pollsters explain a 15% inversion from the preceding day.

Two reasons:

First, women went from 3% in favor of Obama in the day-before poll to 14% in favor of Clinton in the exit poll.

My best guess is that: (1) women were swayed somewhat by Hillary's emotional statement, which made her seem more human, and (2) when they got right down to voting, they felt compelled to vote for the 1st woman who has a viable chance to win the Presidency.

Second, Obama is strong with younger voters, who are infamous for not showing up to vote. In Iowa they did show up; in New Hampshire, they didn't.